Ubbe

$SIVE is on a speculative, unsustainable rally that is not backed by any fundamentals. Healthy parabolic stocks like $LITE, $BE, $AXTI, $SNDK either pop and grind up following each earnings event as new information is introduced to the market and improves the fundamental outlook OR they sell a raw material or commodity whose supply/demand dynamics and price can be tracked publicly. $SIVE is neither. The last earnings call was on February 26th, to which the market had zero reaction; however starting mid-March, $SIVE proceeded to run 2000%. No fundamental news was released to warrant such a re-rating. The O-Net and Jabil R&D partnerships are not new. The news that is actually needed to move the fundamental value: commercial volume orders with real dollar values attached, did not occur. In fact, they restated their FY25 EBIT net loss, which got worse. My bearish campaign against $SIVE is only beginning. The higher this speculative stock runs, the more people will lose money; we must keep the damage contained. Those purposely spreading unreliable information to increase the market capitalization of an illiquid microcap to inflate their own wealth at the expense of everyday investors must be held accountable. My short report is coming soon.

" $SIVE can reach $80b because $LITE is $80b" has to be the dumbest and most dangerous investment thesis ever. People will lose their savings listening to all this misinformation. It's sad and needs to stop (I am starting an anti $SIVE crusade). 1. $SIVE is not a bottleneck (despite it being the poster child of the photonics bottleneck craze). A bottleneck, by definition, must be the company that constrains the production of a massive downstream industry. To constrain production, you must both own hard physical assets and hold a dominant market share position. Sivers has neither. Sivers is a fabless design company that relies on WIN for Foundry services, and with revenues of ~$30 million, they hold near zero market share in the massive datacom laser industry. 2. Supply chain analysis is misleading. In semiconductors (or any industry producing a durable manufactured good) switching costs are near zero while process power, cornered resources, and scale dominate. Therefore, "who has a superior product" is far more important than "who supplies what to whom." CPO external light sources require quality lasers meeting noise (linewidth and RIN) and power (400mW+) specs. $SIVE lasers are far inferior to that of larger peers like $LITE. 3. $SIVE valuation is comically detached from reality. On NTM metrics, $LITE trades at 14x EV/Revenue and 32x EV/EBITDA while $SIVE trades at 50x and 650x (!!) those same metrics. As a permanent AI infra bull, I fully agree that consensus is too conservative; however, they are not off by two orders of magnitude. The misinformation needs to stop. Let's help actually help retail understand what they own.

A guide by Serenity on becoming a true Swedish local: 1. See crown jewel photonics company in $SIVE? 2. Get angry about 2024 revenue numbers, ignoring forward growth. 3. Encourage everyone to transfer control to America at the bottom, before the CPO supercycle 4. Be angry that the stock keeps rising 5. Have local hedge funds short 17%+ of free float on way up 6. Their funds loses 20%+ of value, and faces infinite losses 7. Face sudden realization America now dominates ownership with MSCI inclusion / NASDAQ listing coming up. 8. But see new news Jabil mass producing 1.6T LRO for hyperscalers with $SIVE H1 2027? 9. Don’t change your mind: keep focusing on 2024 revenue numbers and local accounting offices while executives are in America. 10. Become a meme on X.