@aleabitoreddit I keep added aggressively and still think I’m not bullish enough.
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DiscoD14
7.6K posts
DiscoD14
@Discod144
Be Good, Do Good, God bless and Go Bills Don’t take life too seriously. No one makes it out alive.
Katılım Mart 2022
241 Takip Edilen375 Takipçiler
For people trying to do valuation analysis on $SIVE.
Ayar, Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence are probably valued probably ~$4B-15B+ today.
Sivers is ~$2.6B MC and they're likely upstream laser for them all.
I'm not even including Poet, TFLN links like Hyperlight/Lightium, or pluggables like Jabil + other undisclosed players in valuation analysis.
Or their other segments like CHIPS Act contracts or Apple/Nokia relationships.
Or humanoid/physical AI segments with Aeva + others.
Retail aren't as familiar with private markets...
But these companies are all considered the frontier CPO players, and are growing valuations/scaling rapidly.
So, I'd expect $SIVE to command similar if not higher valuations given laser chokepoint premiums. Especially after they pull off M&A to TAM expand revenue.
New Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ inflow next month helps close that gap over time.
But NASDAQ listing is probably what gives Sivers a premium.
Dominik@Dominik56798023
@aleabitoreddit Is it still worth investing in Sive?
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@gregcameback Hating America and loving America are polar opposites buddy
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Both used their 1st Amendment right. You just hate black people
Pro-America | Politics & Markets@Pro__Trading
In a world of Collin Kaepernicks, be a Jaxson Dart.
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@MirageWL8 Wouldn’t putting 50% of your assets in a single stock be considered going all in regardless of the dollar amount? If not then please enlighten us
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Uhh, I think what actually matters is absolute dollars.
A 2x on $500k is $1M
And a 10x on $100k is $1M
The difference is in dollar amount risked in speculative assets. Most people wouldn’t go all in speculation so absolute dollars absolutely matters.
Managing $100k is vastly different than managing $1M which is vastly different than managing $50M which is vastly different than managing $1B
Also need to consider that a lot of these small market caps don’t really have liquidity to get a multibagger on big accounts unless you’re basically trying to buy the company
Hard disagree here
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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@UbbeInvest Please don’t give investment advice. Valuing a growth company using TTM sales is amateur level especially when the growth ramp up is over the next 3 years. Stick to index funds.
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$SIVE has a $10m revenue photonics business with a few really interesting strategic partnerships, mostly in early-stage development. This venture is now valued at $ 2.5bn after a two months explosive upswinging run.
(Sivers also has a ~$20m wireless business which you may want to take into account. It's not part of the narrative so let's stick to the photonics side.)
This would bring Sivers implied photonics multiple to 250x sales.
For comparison:
Nvidia's extreme levels peaked at 45x sales (20-25x today) while being massively profitable and dominating an entire industriy.
That's just bananas. Take those numbers and bring them to any analyst, AI reasoning, seasoned investor or non-anonymous financial professional. "No, that can't be right"
Keep in mind Sivers is a potential pick-and-shovels infrastructure component play competing with large and established players.
Don't get me wrong. It IS an exciting business but currently the stock is akin to paying a million dollars for ape jpgs, $5,000 for a haircut or paying $2,500 for a pizza, or whatever analogy you prefer.
I love the irony that nobody cares about the price tag yet spend all day long looking at the share price.
They're the same thing.
Apes together strong!
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This is the author who thrust AI water hysteria into the mainstream by overestimating data center water use by 100,000% in her book Empire of AI by mixing up units.
She is a source of wild misinformation. Imagine writing an Econ book on the premise that minimum wage is $7,250/hr
Karen Hao@_KarenHao
On the one-year anniversary of EMPIRE OF AI, I am so, so excited to announce The AI Resist List, a new project that documents examples of resistance to the AI empires around the world. airesistlist.org
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@Discod144 They didnt give FY26 Numbers. Lets see next week the guidance! But im bullish long term
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It has now been two months since I published my first deep dive on $SIVE
The stock is up 10x since then and, honestly, I think it is now massively overextended.
SEK 21.7B market cap on SEK 306M of revenue.
More than 70x sales.
I remain bullish on the long-term photonics / AI connectivity thesis, and I was probably one of the first public bulls talking about the company. But even then, the current valuation is absolutely astronomical.
At this point, the market is already pricing in a brutal revenue ramp, massive conversion from NRE into product revenue, and near-perfect execution over the coming years.
That said, I’m not fucking selling
Nicolas@snmart
$SIVE it’s a bet on 2 massive bottlenecks: → AI data centers → Satellite communications Here's what I found 🧵
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Carter isnt the only Giant that feel this way. He's just the first to make it public.
I hope Dart uses this has a growth opportunity. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. When u are supposed to be a leader of a team, u need to be mindful how your actions impact your teammates
Big Blue United@BigBlueUnited
Abdul Carter was not a fan of seeing Jaxson Dart presenting Donald Trump...
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thought this sh!t was AI, what we doing man
FearBuck@FearedBuck
New York Giants QB Jaxson Dart introduces President Trump ahead of his speech in New York.
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@aleabitoreddit Unbeliveable that people call out Serenity's percentages and want $ amounts and yet consider themselves investors? Wonder if they ever pay attention to % margins in a co's accounts but just look at$ amt in which case they wouldn't want to invest in todays small cap growth stories
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I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter.
What matters is return %. Speaking of that...
YTD: 3840.39%.
I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe.
Do you remember these thesis anon?
1. $AXTI
2. $SIVE
3. $AAOI
4. $LITE
5. $IQE
6. $AEHR
7. $CRCL
8. $EWY
9. Unimicron
10. Nitto Boseki
11. $OSS
12. $GDRZF
13. $RPI
14. $SOI
15. $ALRIB
16. $SNDK
17. $SIMO
18. $VPG
19. $TSEM
20. $ARM
21. $MRVL
22. $INTC
23. $LPK
24. $NBIS
25. $MU
They're all up 100-1000%+, because...
1. I post a thesis.
2. People can see how the stock performs months later.
3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns.
I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets.
Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns.
So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages.
TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis.
Not the dollar amount made.
krasko@krasko1199362
@aleabitoreddit Notice there's no dollar amount attributed
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@zcelestialbaby @aleabitoreddit You can’t be this dumb. A 20% position in a name is high conviction regardless of the dollar amount. Percentages absolutely matter.
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@aleabitoreddit Dollar amounts absolutely matter. Dollar amount determines how risk averse one can be. Many would be willing to risk $1000, but not many would be willing to risk $1,000,000.
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@BernieSanders NGO executives will become multi-millionaires in a very short time.
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Mr. Bezos: Let's have that debate.
Under my 5% billionaires wealth tax, we'd:
-Give $12K to a working family of 4
-Expand Medicare for dental, vision, hearing
-Guarantee universal childcare
-Raise starting teacher pay to $60K
And you'd still be worth $269 billion after taxes.
More Perfect Union@MorePerfectUS
Jeff Bezos on CNBC: "If people want me to pay more billions, then let's have that debate, but don't pretend that that's gonna solve the problem. You could double the taxes I pay, and it's not gonna help that teacher in Queens.... Airbnb isn't causing high rents. What's really causing high rent is government intervention."
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@AaronQuinn716 Let’s set up an NGO that pays out 5% to the actual cause and 95% in admin expenses
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JUST IN: L.A. woman pleads guilty to paying homeless people on Skid Row to register to vote in 20-year scheme.
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@InTheAssembly This is not true LOL. Who told you this nonsense? If he wanted to build a big position quietly then he would be using swaps.
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Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F never came on Friday.
Here is the REAL reason why, and what it tells you:
The most likely explanation is that he requested confidential treatment from the SEC.
Confidential treatment is a legal tool that lets large funds delay disclosing positions they are still actively accumulating, sometimes for UP TO A YEAR.
Funds use it for one reason: they are building a position big enough that public disclosure would MOVE THE PRICE AGAINST THEM before they are done.
If that is what happened here, it means Aschenbrenner is quietly accumulating something significant and does not want the market to see it yet.
The 24 year old who turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in 12 months going dark on the one day he was legally required to show his hand is not nothing.
Pay attention to what happens when this position finally becomes public.
We are checking every day, and when it comes, we’ll share it here publicly.
Turn on notifications so you don’t miss the signal, this is VERY important.
Many people will wish they followed us sooner.
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Gavin Newsom just announced a shiny new taxpayer funded program giving free diapers to newborns leaving California hospitals and his administration is partnering with Baby2Baby with almost $20 MILLION in state funds to manufacture them.
I’m sure it’s a total coincidence that one of Baby2Baby’s Co-CEOs, Norah Weinstein, sits on the board of Gavin Newsom’s wife’s California Partners Project.
There is nothing that Gavin Newsom can’t grift.
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ICE Abducts Disney Cruise Staff Right Off of Ship in Horrific Raid trib.al/uqHXBeT
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@aleabitoreddit I sold out of Poet on the drop, but in Sivers, so I guess I'm still in poet? btw - thanks for the tip on Sivers! After doing my own DD, your suggestion has paid handsomely! trying to subscribe to your substack but at the airport.
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@KonolTllo2 @Matrix_B0SS I own SIVEF at E*Trade. Bought last Monday and up almost 100% already
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Honest take for $SIVE
If a failing shoe business $BIRD can go from $2.5 to $25 same day, when they mentioned AI And GPU
Why $SIVE a laser light source, a real AI bottleneck,in $1b mcap range, can not go to $15 in a couple of months?
While It’s peers $LITE trading in billions
TopInvestor@Matrix_B0SS
As $SIVE is the cheapest light source Stock price showing in SEK on $IBKR USD equivalent is only in $4 range It moves very fast up 25% and when goes down only 4% Next day again 25% up so it keeps going up mostly on weekly @Trading212 price is catching up for $SIVE
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IREN is acquiring Mirantis.
Our advantage is infrastructure and execution.
This builds on existing capabilities and strengthens how compute is deployed, managed and operated.
Read more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/8…
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