Umber❇️

It can't be bought or sold, it can only be possessed. $aura

This is why liquidity is moving out the risk curve LIQUIDITY IS NOT CONTRACTING

Real rates are so close to turning negative

My views on the April 9th Livestream - Bearish Crude - Bullish US equities - Bullish Bitcoin - Bearish the dollar - Bullish Gold & silver - Bullish PURR - Bullish Korean & Japanese equities - Bearish USDCNH - Rates neutral to down/stocks outperform bonds Welcome to global macro

There were so many reasons for the pain trade to be and go higher. In a year. Everything will make sense and be so aligned to go to full bull… And we will go down, and down, and down some more.

The credit cycle melt up is only just beginning Everything was laid out here You get paid to hold risk

Capital is moving out the risk curve and bidding equities, but people are saying liquidity is contracting? Maybe draw a tighter connection between liquidity and asset prices, so your liquidity view helps you make money in the markets we trade Liquidity and its time horizons should always be connected to price

Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points (2min read) 1. Real rates just made new lows across the curve and that is the liquidity signal everyone is missing. One-year and two-year real rates both printed new lows today. That is not a coincidence after an oil shock. The crude impulse ran through the system, inflation expectations rose on the short end, and now as crude retreats the Fed’s pause is creating a net liquidity injection even without a cut. When real rates fall and the Fed does nothing, money enters financial markets. That is the setup right now. 2. Stocks are outperforming bonds on the day and that is the pair trade. Long stocks short bonds remains the right expression in this regime. Inflation needs to make its way through the system still, which makes outright long bonds uncomfortable. But stocks can rally through it. You can already see ES making new highs intraday while ZN has not cleared yesterday’s high. That asymmetry is the signal. 3. Bond positioning just had a capitulation and is now rebuilding. CME open interest data shows a massive washout in ten-year note futures earlier this week, followed by new long positioning being rebuilt on Tuesday. Six and a half million DV01 of new longs across the ten-year contract. This means the market has already cleared the peak fear on rates. The setup is for rates to consolidate here, not spike further. 4. Long-term inflation expectations are falling, not rising. Ten-year and thirty-year inflation swaps have been declining even as short-end swaps moved up with crude. The market is telling you this is a supply shock with a time limit, not a new demand-driven inflationary cycle. That is why the Fed is not hiking and why positioning in the Z6 contract has flipped from pricing a hike back to pricing five basis points of cuts this year. 5. The FX market is pricing the next leg down in crude before it happens. Hedge funds are now using currency options on the South Korean won and Chinese yuan to bet on crude falling further. The dollar against the yuan has been moving in lockstep with crude for months. When that pair breaks to a new low, it leads crude lower. Watch dollar-yuan tonight. If it makes a new low, the crude unwind accelerates. 6. There is still massive vol premium in the crude options market to unwind. Implied vol in crude is still running at eighty percent. Call skew just spiked again at the lows as people re-leveraged into calls. That is a contrarian signal. If de-escalation continues, you could see crude vol crush from eighty back to sixty or forty in a session. Same dynamic that caused the gap up can cause the gap down. 7. Gold and silver are set up to rally as macro liquidity expands, not as geopolitical hedges. Gold’s sensitivity to real rates has dropped since 2024 and its drivers have clearly shifted to the quantity of money in the system. Put skew in gold capitulated at the exact low in March, the same moment FX put skew peaked. That was the bottom. Now as real rates fall and the dollar weakens, gold and silver rally on the liquidity injection, not the geopolitical story. This will confuse a lot of people. That confusion is the opportunity. 8. Industrials and materials outperforming tells you where the market is going next. Energy is down on the week but only contributing 22 basis points of negative return to the index because of its small weighting. What matters is industrials and materials leading, which reflects the second and third order transmission of the crude impulse into the real economy, and the AI infrastructure build-out starting to reassert itself as the dominant theme. EQIX just made an all-time high while the rest of the market was sitting flat. The largest data center REIT in the world making new highs with the highest fundamental attribution in its sector is the market telling you exactly where flows are going next.

You’re afraid of how good you can become Lock in and leave your past self in the dust

@mkftheone Yessir🔐

I’ve been banging on about this trading community for a long time But we open in the next day or so Look forward to seeing some of you guys in there It’s going to be incredible

@mkftheone 💪💪

We’re going to defy all odds in this game Deliverance Markets will create profitable traders. My dream is for you guys to be looking after your family, becoming better individuals. Adopting the right mentality to excel in life. We’re building a process I wish I had 6 years ago

CPI expectations trending lower. Combined with weaker jobs data gives cover to the Fed to cut which they were predisposed to regardless.

I might sound like a prat saying this to 1,500 followers, but I spent nearly three years working at one of the largest and best research platforms in the world as an analyst, trader, and educator. Those of us who position ourselves as people worth listening to in times like this carry a responsibility that’s bigger than ego. I’ve watched some large accounts get lazier and lazier with their content, make bold calls, then brush them under the rug with a bit of jargon that their audience quickly forgets. The truth is crypto is in a highly uncertain and highly fragile place right now. Extreme fear is and always has been an opportunity if you have a long time horizon and deep pockets. That doesn’t mean it’s for everyone. I believe in crypto. I have high-conviction positions that I’m still in and won’t sell because I believe they perform in a healthier market. But I don’t think we’re entering some long, drawn-out crypto winter either. At the same time, prices can go lower than most people expect. I also think what’s attracting large money to crypto today is very different from what we thought it was a few years ago, and that matters more than most narratives being pushed right now. Be careful. Deep pockets and spare cash lying around fire away. That’s not the story for everyone However. You can all improve. Opportunities will come & whatever happens it’ll turn around again. Be the sharpest version of you to capitalise the best you can No one can do that for you

@Globalflows What about BTC? It will still be affected by real rates right?

pure conviction in $aura will payoff

@mkftheone Facts

Tips for Traders: Taking on difficult, uncomfortable, frustrating, and mentally or physically challenging things by choice builds confidence in yourself. That confidence makes you move through life and the markets differently. Trading and markets will bring frustrating and difficult periods by default. You will lose. Things will go against you. You have to accept that. The best way to accept it is to add things to your life that build resilience. Train hard. Read books that make you think. Meditate. Look for every edge you can. #Trading #TradingTips #TradingPsychology

Imagine fading a pick by @cryptonary at a $20M market cap. The road to billions starts now for $AURA. People would’ve killed to get $SPX at a $20M market cap when @cryptonary first called it before it ran to the billions. Trust me on this one: buy and hold your $AURA. Your next 100x+ 🚀

@lukebelmar x.com/saintauraaaa/s…

Gmaura to all the legends still here $AURA ❇️

Not fucking selling, just scraping the barrel to buy more $Aura

@auracoinsolana Confident conviction: +88888888 Chinese number 8 represents: -Wealth and prosperity -Endless good fortune -Balance and harmony -Auspicious beginnings 🇨🇳发 🇭🇰發