Underlying_hl
141 posts

Underlying_hl
@Underlying_hl
“what’s the underlying of a hyperliquid ?”






















In the most aggressive scenario, I think you need a bit under 30% annual returns to hold HYPE through 2030. I think the most aggressive assumption of true supply of HYPE is ~60% of fd, so its $20bn marketcap assuming no future airdrops. You need to believe that the expected value of HYPE is $56bn EOY 2030 to own it today. Putting aside the 25-75% probability skew that it somehow dies between today and 2030, you're assuming it gets to the Nasdaq's current valuation. The market of non-fundamental analysts will point to the high margins, low team number etc... as a sign of strength, when in reality having a high margin isn't a good thing for future business defensibility. Not arguing its necessarily bad, just to say its objectively not a good thing. So the question is then, what is the terminal margin for HYPE in 2030 if it succeeds, what's its success worth, and what's the multiple on 2030 earnings that you can pay today. Let's say there's 25% probability of failure, and in the rest of the scenarios HYPE gets to $75bn marketcap (required to be ev nasdaq 2030), on a mature company, the correct earnings multiple for an exchange with high margins and high business defensibility is 20-25x (average of CME, ICE, NDAQ, etc...). Let's say they exit with 50% margins (high end of comps) and trade at 25x (high end of comps) , you need $6bn of revenue. I'm giving you aggressive assumptions partially anchored to the last century of financial history around competitive dynamics of all markets. I understand that people will say "margins are going to be higher than 50%" or "it's doing $800mm of revenue, and was doing over $1bn earlier, so $6bn isn't hard to get to" but that requires the future to differ from the past of financial history in ways that none of these people have attempted to form a coherent argument for. There's recency bias that lets people believe that the current metrics are sustainable, but the most likely outcome is that high margins and large enough revenue opportunity invite competition. In order to defend business, it will have to sacrifice margin by lowering pricing or spending more to differentiate from competition. Competition may not be crypto-native. It will involve regulated entities competing with more resources than crypto incumbents. I'm willing to buy $HYPE at a relatively high price vs. what most non-crypto valuation focused people would pay, but that doesn't mean that the current price is the right price. The most likely explanation is that there's still on average overvaluation across tokens, and many people who feel forced to allocate to crypto feel the need to have HYPE exposure because some of the other largecap alternatives are relatively worse ev.














