john
130 posts
JUST IN: U.S. GDP REVISED DOWN TO 0.7% IN Q4 2025, BELOW 1.4% ESTIMATE
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Nobody is telling you how FUCKED the financial system actually is right now.
And it started cracking TODAY.
Step 1 → JPMorgan just marked down its private credit loans and RESTRICTED lending to private credit funds.
Step 2 → Morgan Stanley is now BLOCKING redemptions at its private credit fund after withdrawals surged.
Step 3 → Cliffwater's private credit fund redemptions just hit 14%.
Step 4 → Partners Group says defaults could DOUBLE from here.
Step 5 → Fitch says US private credit default rates hit 9.2% — the HIGHEST ever recorded.
That's 3 of the biggest banks in the world pulling back from the same market in the SAME WEEK.
Now connect the dots:
Step 6 → Private credit funds borrowed from banks to lend to companies. Banks are now cutting them off.
Step 7 → Those funds can't refinance. Redemptions accelerate. They're forced to sell assets at a loss.
Step 8 → The companies that borrowed from private credit? Tech startups, software firms, mid-market companies. They can't refinance either.
Step 9 → Defaults cascade. Not just 9.2%. We're talking 15-20% by Q3.
Step 10 → This is a $1.7 TRILLION market. Bigger than subprime was in 2008.
And here's the part that should TERRIFY you:
This is happening WHILE oil tankers are burning in the Strait of Hormuz. WHILE Iran is laying mines. WHILE 21% of global oil supply hangs by a thread.
2008 had ONE crisis. A housing collapse.
2026 has THREE running simultaneously:
→ A private credit implosion
→ A war shutting down global energy
→ A bond market that can't absorb the shock
Nobody is pricing this in. Nobody.
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Nobody says “lol” Steve.
This is no time to look for the best in Wayne Sparrow. If there’s a best it will become apparent without looking for it .
I’ve been successful in real estate for 40 years Steve . It’s useful to know when one is being threatened. Profitable even. Ransom stripping was invented by the Brits . It’s being put to good use by Wayne. He’s building his masterpiece now.
I think few Canadians truly understand threat and menace. Look at how they are wildly misconstruing Trump .
Wakey Wakey
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Musqueam isn’t coming for your property BUT the government is acknowledging they have aboriginal title. The BC Supreme Court ruled in the Cowichan case that aboriginal title not only “co-exists” but is a senior interest that can burden the land and key land title act protections like indefeasibility don’t apply against it…
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@BarbellFi How do you feel about paying off a loan at 2.6% when you’re basically investing at 7-10% with market returns. Feels good to have no debt but just wondering.
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So happy our 2.6% mortgage is paid off
Total mortgage balance was $242k
Took 10 years to pay off
5 years in we refinanced to a 15 year
House is worth $800k today
I’m 36 & my wife is 35 years old
If you called me an idiot then Happy New Year to you & your mortgage payment 🙂
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@HeroDividend Is due to a contingent payment from an acquisition - non operational. It’ll be okay
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@VanIsleInvestor InPlay is your proxy for relevant canadian oil and gas companies ?
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Canadian oil and gas CEOs avoiding 'rash' decisions during price rout
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@HealthcareREguy This has been a theme for 10+ years - this is not anything new get more creative.
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Want to know the next multi-billion dollar PE strategy? I gotta warn you, it's kinda morbid.
It's Funeral Homes.
This is the opposite of healthcare, it's deathcare (literally, that's the term for it) and PE firms are already targeting the $23 Billion industry.
Here's why:
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$VET Vermilion Energy - Cancellation of 1,417,280 shares for approx. $19.5 million
Thank you for the support 🌊
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@OmarMora1es @sweatystartup should have an idea given experience in dealing with challenging storage environment but he may be too busy blocking people to add his 2 cents.
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Sellers want: 4.75 - 5.25% caps
Buyers want: 5.75 - 6.25% caps
Who wins this tug of war?
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