VB4alpha

@Mikan_Drill @rhomboid1MF @dopamine_uptake As I said he might look akward in first impression. Would love to hear some specifics about the negative feedback

@VB4alpha @rhomboid1MF @dopamine_uptake One of the only CEOs where I've heard explicitly negative feedback from former colleagues

#SDI broken scientific instruments roll up looks to be on the mend and quite cheap. Recent acquisitions have been much better. Should get a TU any day. I doub't there's mega upside here but a nudge into MSD for organic growth would be received well

@rhomboid1MF @dopamine_uptake Stephen is a much better CEO than Mike Creedon (& fun fact: Mike Creedon is « open to work » on LinkedIn since 2y). Stephen might look somewhat akward when presenting. But he is actually smart, focused on acquiring good businesses and create SHL value which is all that matters.

@VB4alpha @dopamine_uptake I met his predecessor many times but have no current holding in #SDI so am unlikely to meet him in person any time soon…best of luck with your holding in any case

@MoodyWriter13 That’s positive - is the chairman of the Stiftung playing an important role? They seem conservative according to historical cash allocation (no acquisition, no SBB, deleveraging to net cash position ex-pension). Do they see their job as creating value for shareholders?

@VB4alpha Makes a very good impression on me. The CEO joined in 2017 and has since increased the margins from 3% to 9%.

I published an article today about KSB SE & Co. KGaA, $KSB one of the world’s leading manufacturers of industrial pumps and valves. Industrial pumps may sound boring at first. However, some of these highly specialized pumps are essential for nuclear power plants, gas-fired power plants, copper mines, oil sands, and LNG infrastructure. All of these end markets are already experiencing capital inflows driven by the AI supercycle. KSB supplies exactly these types of specialty pumps. Anyone who has read Jeffrey Currie’s work also understands the link between AI and commodities. If the commodity supercycle unfolds as he predicts, we are facing a massive wave of investment into the resource sector. This would require huge volumes of pumps from KSB. The key point is that KSB is currently trading at a P/E ratio of only around 10, and EV/ebit of 4.7, while aiming to grow revenues by roughly one third by 2030. A “sum-of-the-parts” analysis also reveals significant embedded value within the holding structure, which accounts for more than 50% of the parent company’s market capitalization. A high-quality business at a reasonable price, with strong long-term tailwinds. There’s not much more one could ask for at the moment. I hope you enjoy the article. @fwriter/note/p-198238279?r=1485tu&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@fwriter/note/…

@rhomboid1MF @dopamine_uptake You should meet him in person.

@VB4alpha @dopamine_uptake I think the way he presents is highly relevant to the investment case

@rhomboid1MF @dopamine_uptake What do you mean exactly?

@dopamine_uptake Have you watched Mr Brown present? If not I’d suggest it’d be v useful to do so

@evfcfaddict @Etnarosso1973 Are you optimistic about future earnings growth? How do you compare Intred vs Unidata?

@Etnarosso1973 impossible but it should put a floor and shows they are on our side of the table

Intred $ITD.MI AGM gave authorization to buy back up to 1,5 million shares in the next 18 months (33% of the total free float). Keep on selling this 46% ebitda, low churn business at a 17% operating cashflow yield…. cms-admin.intred.it/uploads/PR_Int…

@fedex774 [Genuinely love debating ideas] - what is your valuation framework? I see $MEMS.PA at a similar valuation than Nynomic for example (20x EBIT range), with accelerating AI-exposed business.

@VB4alpha For my valuation it looks extremely overvalued...I could ofc be wrong, just my opinion

MEMSCAP $MEMS looks like one of the most overextended names in the optics "bubble". It looks priced for perfection and the aerospace segment could be a drag if the Iran war continues.

@MoodyWriter13 Has anyone tried to a supply-demand forecast of photonics equipment some years out?

Right now, virtually every European company with a photonics angle is being hyped, even when it has little or nothing to do with the actual demand driver in AI data centers. All the more remarkable that this isn’t happening to Germany’s premier photonics company, ams OSRAM (€1.16bn Market Cap). Upfront: there is currently no meaningful exposure to AI data centers, but there is a technologically compelling pipeline. Together with AMS, OSRAM commands one of the broadest competence bases in photonics and especially sensing, from automotive through MedTech to industrial applications. It also appears well positioned in VR/AR, and prospectively in robotics. On March 18, ams OSRAM unveiled a microLED prototype: hundreds of tiny LEDs, each roughly half the width of a human hair, transmitting data in parallel between servers. Instead of a few extremely fast lasers, the approach uses many slower channels with a significantly better energy profile. They call it “slow-and-wide optical interconnects.” Microsoft and MediaTek announced their own microLED AOC collaboration on March 17 – one day before ams OSRAM. Doug Burger, Technical Fellow and CVP at Microsoft Research, calls it “a major leap in AI datacenter efficiency.” Hyperscalers see microLED as a serious path forward, not an academic experiment. According to MediaTek/Microsoft, the approach enables up to 50% energy savings versus VCSEL-based solutions – and energy is the central bottleneck in data center expansion. Beyond energy, reliability matters. Microsoft Research’s MOSAIC paper (SIGCOMM 2025) reports that an optical link fails every 6 to 12 hours in a 100,000-GPU cluster. Particularly problematic for training large models. Important: this isn’t a pure lab solution. The technology is derived from EVIYOS, which has been running in production vehicles since 2023 and won the German Future Prize in 2024. The bottleneck isn’t the microLED itself, many players master GaN epitaxy, but the combination of high-frequency epitaxy (>1 GHz), monolithic microLED-CMOS integration, and automotive-qualified volume manufacturing, which means scalability and reliability are already proven. ams OSRAM also makes emitters and photodiodes in-house. MediaTek and Microsoft had to assemble their partners from different vendors. Most importantly from a hyperscaler perspective: EVIYOS has been running in cars for three years. Automotive qualification is harder than any lab demo. In large AI clusters, optical link failures are a real operational problem. Copper is more robust but limited to short distances. MicroLEDs address exactly this gap: greater reach at copper-like reliability and better energy profile. The efficiency advantage also comes from integration itself, precisely where CPO is struggling today with the extreme precision required, as I explained earlier this week: laser coupling and testing need sub-micrometer to micrometer precision. MicroLEDs as surface-emitting devices with a larger spot are mechanically far more forgiving, across hundreds of channels, that’s what decides the economics. That said, this remains a long-term case. Broader adoption is realistic no earlier than 2029/2030, and the application is limited to short distances (intra-rack / rack-to-rack). For longer reaches, VCSEL and silicon photonics remain dominant – and continue to evolve. ams OSRAM is addressing a real weakness in data center design with differentiated technology. But: it remains a niche for now. Anyone investing here is betting on optional upside, not near-term AI revenues. The company is strong in its core markets and carries significant optionality. However, it also carries high debt. Apart from the debt load, the business is qualitatively well positioned. I don’t have complete research on the name. Anyone considering an investment should do their own research first.

@aleabitoreddit ?

IT'S OFFICIAL: $JBL to use $SIVE Lasers for their optical transceivers. Today: "Jabil plans to develop a 1.6T linear receive optical (LRO) transceiver module using Sivers’ high-performance Distributed Feedback (DFB) lasers" Jabil Photonics: :Working with Sivers will allow us to deliver a 1.6T LRO solution that meets both data center performance and power targets at scale" Where have you seen the LIGHT SOURCE for hyperscaler supply chains... At a $500m MC? We had this hinted from physical sources at OFC, but many institutions needed actual confirmation like this.

@ToffCap What would be a reasonable estimate of EBITDA on that 1bn revenue?

2CRSi opening in the low 24s doesn't make a lot of sense 😆😂😘 $AL2SI

@aleabitoreddit @BonyBallf2 $IQE why has been the photonics business declining until very recently?

$AXTI was $12-15? I’ve never heard of someone complain of $AXTI correcting $5 after a 5x return to $60 to $55. $IQE is up 266% YTD? $AAOI was $28-$32? Going from $30 -> $125 -> $85 doesn’t mean down a lot $RDDT is the only name you’ve mentioned that’s genuinely red since I mentioned it at $140 and now it’s $136.5. So down $3.5

$SIVE is up 6.7% today. You know you're doing something right: When the entire market from KOSPI to Nikkei is red. While individual longs from $TSEM to $AXTI are green. It's clear that this is now a stock picker's market. As thematic individual names in Oil, Rare Earths, to Semis, that the world is fighting over... Have strongly outperformed the broader market.

@evfcfaddict How is ROIC trending?

If you are able to expand margins in a downturn, operate in an oligopoly and outperform all your competitors by a mile for years, you won`t trade at 7x ev/ebitda forever. Doubled my position yesterday. $VID.MC

@NoahEpstein_ PE

the boring satisfying AI opportunity nobody's talking about: private equity firms i've worked with 6 PE firms in the last year here's what i learned: they all do the same thing: - source deals from the same databases - run the same screening criteria - build the same CIM summaries - send the same outreach sequences the only difference? their investment thesis one firm wants $5-20M EBITDA manufacturing companies in the midwest another wants $10-50M healthcare services with recurring revenue same workflow. different filters. built one system. sold it six times. here's the thing nobody tells you about niche selection: the best niches aren't the biggest ones they're the ones where everyone talks to each other PE firms go to the same conferences sit on the same panels share the same deals they passed on i closed 3 of those 6 from referrals one firm told another who told another that's the game: find an industry where: → the workflow is identical across companies → only the criteria changes → they all know each other → they have budget and move fast PE, law firms, recruiting agencies, commercial real estate brokers they're not sexy they don't go viral on twitter but they PAY and they tell their friends stop chasing the crowded niches where everyone's competing on price find the boring one where you can own the room comment "PE" and i'll send you the breakdown of the exact system i built plus how to find your own "boring niche" that prints referrals

@TomSmith839 The guys shorting this don’t believe there is 900m of clean EBITDA

$WLN $WLN.PA MC down to €670m and EV to €2.8B They managed to sell the only growing segment in the business (MeTS) for €410m, or 4.1x EV/EBITDA Where does mgmt expect the non-growing remaining business to trade at? Either way, if you subtract the €100m MeTS EBITDA, assume 5% decline in the remaining business & a €50m cost reduction, it's currently trading at 3.1x 2026 EV/EBITDA

For the total execution failure that Worldline $WLN $WLN.PA is, I remain convinced someone should be willing to pay more than €3B EV (€1B MC) for a company that does >€500B in MSV They make €850m in Adj. EBITDA & are selling non strategic assets (whatever that means)

@absreturnchaser Aumovio. Cost-cutting easier to do outside of Conti. Priced like it’s going bankrupt but it’s FCF positive with net cash position and clear path to 1bn+ EBIT.

@brookgatecap I think historically Headlam was overexposed to carpets (did several acquisitions that were only doing carpets). And yes economics tended to be a bit better for carpets due to market share concentration. But I agree with you in the bigger picture

@VB4alpha Not sure how it weights carpets vs other floor coverings. But as a distributor #HEAD should be pretty agnostic to declining categories no? Unless carpet has better economics vs LVT etc?

Interims at Headlam look bad but can’t help but feel there is a lot of opportunity to turn around the business. Decades of unconsolidated rolled-up businesses now starting to trade under one banner, one buying process. #HEAD $HEAD.L

@brookgatecap Thanks. In volumes it’s indeed much below average. I wonder if all floorcovering outside of carpets are well captured here. Carpets are in structural decline

@VB4alpha ons.gov.uk/economy/nation…

@brookgatecap To assess where volumes are, do you have any relevant indicator/index (other than "the market research" that management is occasionally referring to?)

@VB4alpha Poor cost mgmt But volumes are materially below avg levels, when they recover there should be decent drop through to EBIT Plus mgmt say a lot of cost to come out as they consolidate years of rolled up M&A