absreturnchaser

If anyone knows an investment firm (hedge fund or others) that’s looking to hire an experienced hedge fund PM/MD in London, Middle East or Switzerland pls DM me. I’m 15 years in, long/short equity and event-driven/special situations. Reposts appreciated as well, thank you.

@MarkRadcliffe44 @starpukka1 The Board has to have a stronger fallback bid/option otherwise can entirely resign in my view. Not moving into extension and negotiate can imply something of higher value on table. Unless they want to earn the board failure of the decade (let’s not forget share used to be 400p).

@absreturnchaser @starpukka1 Either that Or the board are in real jeopardy at the May AGM .. they will have to reassure and fast..

#spi clearly the market is sceptical on the 'reported' likely offer being acceptable. My take is the company is worth 25-280 but a always retail sell at breakeven it seems. Sitting on my paws again today

@MBdaytrading The Board may have higher bids otherwise not having another extension with a starting bid of 230 seemingly looks almost suicidal for their own board “careers”.

#SPI no bid coming , although talk still on going with suitors ! SPIRE HEALTHCARE GROUP PLC: REMAINS IN DISCUSSIONS WITH OTHER PARTIES IN RELATION TO A POTENTIAL SALE OF COMPANY Monday prob see a fall , my average just over £2 !

@MarkRadcliffe44 @starpukka1 Sky reported that the ask was 250 I think. The real question is why the leak that Bridgepoints starting offer would be 230 and not even a day later they pull out. Not even an extension. The Board may be certain that there is a better offer at hand.

@starpukka1 #spi I think they are both out because the board had a red line for offers that they would not deviate from. We know major holders wanted 280-350. I am ok letting oan out but we may take a real hit Monday

@KevBuschhold Reuters

@absreturnchaser Source please 🙏

Sale process still ongoing at Spire Healthcare: SPIRE HEALTHCARE GROUP PLC: REMAINS IN DISCUSSIONS WITH OTHER PARTIES IN RELATION TO A POTENTIAL SALE OF COMPANY $spi #spi @MarkKleinmanSky

@MarkRadcliffe44 May see another extension in #SPI. Tosca and Mediclinic have been LT owners and want to sell. They can’t run another sale process in a year or two, would lose any credibility. So either they sell (260p) now or pay a massive dividend via a leaseback of 600m to pay shareholders.

Spire health is now my biggest position. risk reward is getting better and better #spi

CTS Eventim stock back at cEUR70 - Wonder who signs off trades like that at AQR. Covering the short in CTS Eventim $EVD $EVD.DE $LYV could easily take more than c.25 days. Significant short squeeze potential.

$CEV target price lifted to 86 EUR, 36% upside. $ARIS driving implied value. Still expecting SO sooner than later.

CTS Eventim trades 140k shares a day and AQR built a c.1.7 million short position. Talk about short squeeze potential. $evd $evd.de $lyv

CTS Eventim CEO and founder gave an interview. I expect a buyback. If he is smart, he will take out minorities and delist. 1bn+ net cash and trading on 9x EV/EBIT. $evd $evd.de $lyv eventimbusiness.hr/en/news/klaus-…

Berkshire / Warren Buffett may take $SIRI private by now. Decent cash return deal. Otherwise an odd position for the Holding.

New Long for us: $EVD $EVD.DE. CTS Eventim, European market leader and equivalent to $LYV. Trading on fwd 10x EV/EBIT, more than a billion net cash with 6.5bn MC. Still majority owned by founder who recently bought more. Looking at mid-teens IRR, potential BB would boost it.

@InvestSpecial @pernasresearch @ragingbullcap @TenvaCapital @thewritser @gw_investing Thank you

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@origoinvest What odds do you attribute to the IPO taking place?

$SATS EchoStar Updated Analysis Since we now have a tentative timeline on a SpaceX IPO, its a good time as any to update my NAV analysis and areas of interest as we go crescendo in to the next 6 months. Exciting times. The key takeaway from this exercise is that at the current valuation of $129 / share, $SATS is still trading at a discount to what I estimate to be a worst case scenario With a clear catalyst ahead EchoStar represents a high conviction expected value play with a high probability of 40-90% upside within a compressed timeframe Let's dive deeper into some of the swing factors at play: 1) Value ex-Space X: I estimate there to be $42-53B of asset value to the HoldCo (net of any OpCo debt). The main variables to this are (i) value of the remaining AWS-3 (paired) and (ii) Boost Mobile. AWS-3 (paired) remains a highly strategic asset and my base case at $2.5 MHz POP is quite conservative in my view. Boost Mobile is the largest "unknown" and can seriously surprise to the upside if the hybrid MVNO model takes-off and they become a core player in D2C through the SpaceX partnership. If this happens there is probably further upside to my high case. 2) HoldCo liabilities: there is a ~$8B NAV swing between my low and high case which is a function of (i) tower lease litigation and (ii) tax impact from spectrum sales. On the tower lease litigation there is >$4B of remaining lease obligations as at Q3 and we are taking the full hit in my low case. Whilst we are not privy to the contractual details it is highly unlikely in my view that EchoStar would be liable for the full sum with recourse to the HoldCo. Without going into too much detail the key legal elements revolve around the drafting of the Force Majeure clause (since EchoStar was forced by the FCC to sell its spectrum) as well as the counterparty and guarantor group under the contract. From what I gathered from the case it is likely that the EchoStar subsidiary that entered into the agreement is separate to the spectrum selling entities, is of limited substance and did not provide guarantees. Having said this I am still assuming some settlement amounts in both base and high cases. On the tax liability from spectrum sales, as I've highlighted previously there is a chance the Company can avoid this all together due to section 1033 of the tax code on forced sales of property (since the FCC mandated the spectrum sale they should qualify for a deferral so long as they reinvest the proceeds) 3) Based on all the above I get to a NAV ex-SpaceX range of $24-42B. Now if we overlay the value of the SpaceX stake, even at the very low-end of the IPO range ($800B) I get to a total NAV of $133-186/share. If the $1.5T rumoured valuation is true then we are closer to $190-243/share. Note that SpaceX is expected to represent >50% of $SATS NAV in my base case. 4) Thoughts on exit / trimming: as we approach fever pitch on the IPO I believe there is a good chance that $SATS trades, at least temporarily, at a premium to NAV (which is not reflected in my analysis). If this happens I would suggest trimming more aggressively as I would expect that premium to flip to a small discount once SpaceX shares are live. On the balance of probabilities I think the $200-250 range is a good area to take some profits. @transhumanica @BDeveran @ACapitalLP @HighStakesCap

@spactrack Do you track upcoming despacs? Where can I find them? Thanks

SPAC & De-SPAC Trading Stats (01/28/26) Mixed tape: a few SPACs eked out gains while quant/AI names wobbled; De-SPACs saw sharp micro-cap pops. SPACs (DA partner): – $CEPT (Securitize) +3.41% to $12.44 – $QETA (KM Quad) +1.22% to $11.64 – $KVAC (Medera Inc.) +1.18% to $11.96 – $CCCX (Infleqtion) -3.37% to $16.36 on 1.28M shares De-SPACs: – $FAASF +75.0% – $SEGG +41.48% – $NAMM +35.88% to $6.40 – $MRNO +32.35% to $1.80 on 66.9M shares All tickers: $CEPT $SAAQU $QETA $KVAC $KRAQU $TBMC $PELI $ESHA $CCCX $RDAC $MLAAU $APXT $GIXXU $FAASF $SEGG $NAMM $MRNO $PBM $ABVE $TNMG $GTEC $FBYD $SAFX $BBAI $PDYN $RDW $SOFI $GRAB #SPACs #DeSPACGainers

$ATG's $ATG.L's Board not opening the books after 12 bids from the large main holder looks like a massive red flag imo. What do they have to hide? Minorities seem to get screwed. 400p offer on the table with 300p share px and not entertaining a M&A process is unprecedented imo.

Isn’t $LKQ the typical strat review bear trap? Just don’t see a strategic case to own the core biz. Bear case outcome small disposal and keeping core, stock could crater on that news. Tough case.