Viraj Patel

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Viraj Patel

Viraj Patel

@VPatelFX

FX & Global Macro Strategist by day | 90s R&B & Hip-Hop DJ by night | Views here are my own | @VandaResearch

London, England Katılım Kasım 2016
6.7K Takip Edilen36.8K Takipçiler
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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
⚠️ Markets are pricing in the most aggressive front-loaded Fed hiking cycle in modern history. If the Fed delivers 4 consecutive 50bps hikes starting in May... which is starting to get priced in... then this will be more aggressive than what we saw in '94. History being made $USD
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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
Policy Mistake Vibes… 🤓
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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
⚠️ UK single-month unemployment fell to 4.9% in Jan driven by seasonal uptick in hiring. Doesn’t mask 3M average running at 5.2%, close to BoE’s peak forecast. Softer hiring in Feb, higher layoffs, falling inactivity means net supply rising. This is pulling wage growth lower $GBP
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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
⚠️ Higher for longer dots. But slightly more dovish than market expectations - especially as option tails had greater odds of a hike vs. cut over next year. But no FOMC officials a hike plausible this year. At the same time one official nudged up their R*. Sell rates vol $USD
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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
⚠️ Inflation may have to go up first... before it comes down. If you believe in the lead/lag of ISM services prices paid and core PCE $USD
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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
The problem is that if Labour appoint a “Caretaker Prime Minister” and they win their first 4 games & start climbing up in the polls, then they might have to make them the permanent leader - even though that wasn’t their 1st choice & might not win them the Premier League 🤓 $GBP
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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
Think the most disappointing thing from the RBA for most central bank watchers is they didn’t take rates to either 3.75% or 4%… 🤓 $AUD
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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
When are we getting the Fabrizio Romano "Here We Go" on the Fed Chair pick? 🤓
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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
⚠️ Not worried about currency weakness. Be careful what you wish for... hotter US inflation looks like one of the most underpriced macro risks for '26 $USD
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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
⚠️ Single-month UK unemployment rose to its highest since Covid in Nov (5.3%) & 2nd highest 2015. Private sector wage growth stayed at cycle lows (3.5%). Payroll gains negative again. Trivial uptick in vacancies not enough to offset higher labour supply. Dovish read for BoE $GBP
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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
⚠️ BoE Day: Watch language around balanced risks & cautious policy stance. Expect this to soften given weak jobs/pay, 5 consecutive soft-ish CPI reports & fiscal tightening knocking 0.5ppts off inflation (per Dep Gov). Language tweak may put Feb cut in play… at least 50:50 $GBP
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Patrick Saner
Patrick Saner@patrick_saner·
“Human in the loop” doesn’t mean slowing down. It means placing expertise at the critical checkpoints: define what “good” looks like, review high-impact outputs, etc. Great workflows = model + process + data + judgment.
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Patrick Saner
Patrick Saner@patrick_saner·
Fifth ingredient: Human in the Loop GenAI scales effort, but judgment still belongs to people. A “human in the loop” system works well in practice: experts guide, review, and refine outputs where it matters.
Patrick Saner@patrick_saner

There’s lots of noise about what makes GenAI work. After a long time with hands-on experiments, one thing’s clear to me: success is about getting the basics right. And when you do, you can go very far. I’ll try unpack those basics (high-level) in the coming weeks.

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Viraj Patel
Viraj Patel@VPatelFX·
⚠️ Clear signs UK labour market loosening: (1) Private Regular Pay Growth at levels seen in 2019 (3.5%); (2) UK unemployment >=5% for 3 consecutive months (0.7ppts higher than 12M low); (3) Private Payrolls -ve 9 out of 11 months this year. BoE has to green-light more cuts $GBP
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