Patrick Saner

@VKMacro Copper also had some positioning washouts but useful proxy wrt to CB pricing bc it adds another puzzle piece besides inflation

Gold is still trading inversely with oil which tells you it’s not over imo

@VKMacro @JoumannaTV Fair. Europe is very energy dependent and natgas storage is seasonally low. Fiscal impulses also relatively low. Sure the ECB has only a CPI target but second order econ impact likely to be felt. Don't see the ECB hiking twice this year into this but on verra!

@patrick_saner @JoumannaTV It really depends on the duration of this crisis EZ unemployment is lower than in 2021 unlike UK, Canada, NZ etc, while ECB neutral is still around 2-2.5% I don’t think it’s unreasonable given possible options Again duration dependent

EuroStoxx futures -2% ECB is today and the rates market is now pricing 2 HIKES (!) by the end of the year. Chart below. Which trumps? Inflation shock or Growth shock? (pun not intended)

@VKMacro @JoumannaTV Yes, but does that warrant two hikes? No cuts doesn't mean hikes, especially with Europe's economic and energy reliance backdrop.

@JoumannaTV There are no cuts in an inflation spike, sorry.

@stevehou Btw, goes back to your recent post on "nobody knows anything". Kinda true in economics and markets!

@stevehou I leave this to the PhDs to decipher 😉 Imo it's not useless per se, but relying on it as "proof" - which literally every monetary policy maker does - creates more fragility than resilience. It's an anecdote, like many things in economics and markets. Useful, but no holy grail.

On inflation expectations: we simply don't know whether they are "anchored". And because no one knows, ppl keep referring to surveys or market based indicators, providing an illusion of certainty. They are anchored until they aren't, simple as that.

@macro786 @stevehou Let's do it! When are you coming to Zurich again? :-)

@patrick_saner @stevehou Agreed Patrick. Take the BoE’s MaPS survey. Most participants are actually answering what they think the BoE wants to hear (talking from personal experience). I can tell you another story of the DMP survey but I will leave that for in person 😊

@SpreadsConverge Agreed on time horizon. Lead-lag relationships aren't clear at all empirically... Expectations often lag realized, which makes the expectations part futile. But maybe I'm shouting into the wind ;)

@patrick_saner Yes but they don't get de-anchored in a day either. Surveys (and sometimes bond markets) can give you an early warning that expectations are beginning to rise.

@TexasOncologist @sdav1986 It's just Goldman IB clients

@patrick_saner @sdav1986 Who is being surveyed here?

@Globalflows @_alfiekerswell @DerivativesDon @qthomp @TraderBillyAU @MacroTactical @lottjj @EffMktHype @jaymesrosenthal @JaredKubin @spaghettilisbon @EconstratPB 🙌 cheers man!

Curate your feed, and the results will come Underfollowed macro accounts 👇 @_alfiekerswell @DerivativesDon @qthomp @TraderBillyAU @MacroTactical @lottjj @EffMktHype @jaymesrosenthal @JaredKubin @patrick_saner @spaghettilisbon @EconstratPB Who else is underfollowed?

@echoesofworld This looks like Gerringong and not Sydney?

Sydney

@686Prism At which point it's called soccer again

EURUSD fair is .9

@mark_yyyyyyyyyy Thanks! In which case Ill look up their report

@patrick_saner The source is from JP Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy and Polymarket

The market-implied pricing of a ceasefire only goes above 50% in May - quite a while from now still. Some supply chains should show stress before that.

Markets have so far focused more on the inflationary effects of the oil (and other commods) shock than the risks to global growth from it.

@TXMCtrades expertise? ofc AI will get better at that too but currently there is a very clear gap between shiny vibe coded things that look nice and approaches that actually work, are insightful and amplify expertise you wouldnt get from GPTs currently.

So much vibe coding going on, lots of cool projects coming out, but none of them can make money because the barrier to copycatting is effectively zero. A dishwasher at Applebee's can reproduce your vibe coded site in a few hours with the right prompting. AI is not just killing existing moats but failing to erect new ones. I am struggling to see all the ways this tech will be long term profitable once it reaches full saturation of the public. It isn't raising anyone else's skill level, it is lowering the bar to entry such that everyone has the same potential output. Where is the profitable edge?

@TheStalwart It exists, but you are either a rule maker or a rule taker. Everyone is a rule taker, except for "some" countries.

“International law doesn’t exist.” Maybe the most midwit take there is?

@TheStalwart cc'ing @TXMCtrades

Bitcoin’s been performing very well