Vince Cooper

Recent assessments have found the last glacial maximum implies a climate sensitivity of 2.4C (1.4C to 5.0C): science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… And the Pliocene implies a sensitivity of 3.1C (2.3C to 4.7C): pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn… Paleoclimate evidence generally provides the strongest constraint on high ECS.

@PNASNews highlights our new paper on modern climate sensitivity based on evidence from the Pliocene

The Pliocene climate was more sensitive than the current climate, suggesting that the upper bound of potential 21st-century warming—an estimate informed by Pliocene warming—should be revised down from 5 °C to 4 °C, according to the authors. In PNAS: ow.ly/clo450Y5yUn

@25_cycle Agreed, and it is important to distinguish between the two concepts (ESS and ECS) when analyzing paleo evidence for modern climate change. Cheers!

@VTCoop ESS is most likely more than double ECS but it's harder to calculate because we don't have very high cadence data sets. ESS is (based on the most recent datasets, Westerhold, Judd, Witkowski) 7-10, centering around 8°. ECS is far less. 2-4 looks "correct".

🌎 New paper out: Narrowing uncertainty in modern climate sensitivity with paleoclimate evidence 🌍 doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2… How much will the Earth warm from greenhouse-gas emissions? 📈

@_ClimateCraze Hi @_ClimateCraze -- if you take a closer look at the paper, I think you'll find it is not hyperventilating. In fact we are downweighting the most extreme warming scenarios based on multiple lines of evidence

This article is just more hyperventilating about CO2 warming, and not one word it about its increasingly trivial warming effects and its increasingly beneficial effects as plant food.

Co-authors: Kyle Armour, Greg Hakim, Jessica Tierney, Natalie Burls, Cristian Proistosescu, Tim Andrews, Wenhao Dong, Michelle Dvorak, Ran Feng, Matthew Osman, and Yue Dong

🔗Open-access version: eartharxiv.org/repository/vie…

Check out the original study from @chan_duo here: nature.com/articles/s4159…

Great post #2012c04a-658a-4eaf-af41-8e7c2d1959d6-link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2024/09/01/fin… from @micefearboggis about a new surface temperature dataset

New paper led by Dan Lunt (@ClimateSamwell) showing how paleoclimates can be used to test whether climate models have plausible responses to CO2, check it out here: nature.com/articles/s4324…

Excited to share that the Harvard Department of Statistics is seeking to appoint tenure-track faculty! Please share our posting with your graduating graduate students and postdocs: statistics.fas.harvard.edu/news/harvard-d… #HarvardStats

Our new paper on tropical cloud feedbacks is out in @NatureGeosci. We show that changes in high cloud area do not provide a negative feedback on climate change like previously thought. Instead, high clouds become thinner with warming, which acts as a... nature.com/articles/s4156…

Guest post: Ice-age analysis suggests worst-case global warming is less likely | @VTCoop @karmour_uw Read here: buff.ly/44rHvKU