Curt Schuelein

214 posts

Curt Schuelein

Curt Schuelein

@ValueInvest2020

Katılım Ekim 2013
182 Takip Edilen133 Takipçiler
Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@_bol2026 Yes, I participated in the Investor Meeting at 5 pm today. Unfortunately, they didn't really provide any additional information on revenue growth or margins for 2026. They did give a target GM % of 25% that they hope that can exceed. The CEO wasn't in this meeting.
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Zx@_bol2026·
@ValueInvest2020 any color this quarter for psix? Believe they are holding a meeting today, to
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
$PSIX They provided quite a lot of background on the Power Systems business. There are 2 components.
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@il_value @DmitriTrades @DrJebaim Their guidance for 2026 calls for a moderate margin improvement from the products serving data center markets, which is their primary business now. Since it is full year guidance, it should be assumed that it compared to the 2025 full year margins.
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Dmitri Vinokurov
Dmitri Vinokurov@DmitriTrades·
@DrJebaim @ValueInvest2020 I haven’t been able to find a like competitor. I think $VRT has some similarities in the business model but as Dino mentioned in the call I think most of their competition is private. Not an issue as there is clearly enough business for everyone here.
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@DmitriTrades @DrJebaim The further decline in the GM% from 23.9% in Q3 to 21.9% was disappointing, but it seems that should be the extreme low point. The GM% comparison for Q1 (29.7%) and Q2 (28.1%) will probably be negative for 2026, before turning positive in the 2nd half.
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Dmitri Vinokurov
Dmitri Vinokurov@DmitriTrades·
It’s tough. Mixed opinions honestly. On the one hand, revenue was a crazy beat - roughly 20% above guidance. Outlook looks strong, as @ValueInvest2020 mentioned, they are guiding for gross margin (most likely) above FY 25 levels, which will be around the high 20’s. I also like that management mentions the strong demand behind data centers and the recent acquisition, while small is cash funded and is a direct reflection of the company trying to grow and support their data center business. On the other hand, gross margin weakened compared to the last quarter even more, and pre tax income is roughly flat Y/Y. Not a great look. Ultimately the way I see it, after the last ER, there were two bear theses: 1. They are losing business (based on poor guidance) 2. The business margins are deteriorating Thesis 1 was completely deleted after this ER. With such a strong revenue beat the business is obviously strong. Thesis 2 may have gotten stronger after this ER though. It’s tough to say how the market will see this. Any info on the earnings call? I recall they wanted to start doing formal calls? Seems like that didn’t happen. And are they still doing a private call?
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@DrJebaim I sent an email to the CFO after the earnings came out. I haven't heard back from him as of yet. I wasn't expecting the earning to be released this early.
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Jebaim
Jebaim@DrJebaim·
@ValueInvest2020 do you know how to register for $PSIX call? You share the audio of the last one, thanks again!
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@anonymouskeepit They were talking about the full year outlook, so it only makes sense that the GM % guidance would be compared to the prior full year's GM %. On sales growth, I don't see their full year sales growth lagging the market.
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Simba
Simba@anonymouskeepit·
@ValueInvest2020 Yes they said moderate improvement but I took it as moderate improvement from Q4 2025 vs FY 2025 so improvement from 21.9% GM. On sales growth, you can back it out via the inventory builds and their net inventory shrunk in Q4. Last time that happened, sales growth was flat q/q
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Simba
Simba@anonymouskeepit·
Im surprised $PSIX isn't down on that report. Not great outlook for 26 and margins are stabilizing in low 20s vs high 20s
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Capytal Management
Capytal Management@capytalmgmt·
China AIDC 2026, Part 2 Key Updates since First Article! $2722.HK, $CYD, $2338.HK
Capytal Management tweet media
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
$CYD doesn't disclose revenue from HHP engines to data centers. It said units were >2,000 out of 461,309 engines. The vast majority of engines go into vehicles (buses, trucks, off-road equip). Assuming an ASP of 1-1.5 M RMB, revenue for DC HHP engines would be 2-3 B RMB (8-12%)
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@sergimp16 Prices for Shelly products are reportedly 1/4 of Plejd's. If true, this is a huge risk for Plejd. x.com/mikeskruvmejse…
MickeScrewdriver@mikeskruvmejsel

@PhantasTrader Mycket plejd fortfarande, när man får fria tyglar och när det är prispress så kan man föreslå shelly om kunden inte är drivande. Vi har bra inköpspriser på Shellys produkter på Ahlsell och priset är ca 1/4 av plejd, allt finns i centrallager men inte ute i butiken så som plejd

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Sergi
Sergi@sergimp16·
By the way, I think that Shelly comments at the call about $plejd are not boding well for the stock... Big risk for the company now as Shelly is penetrating the Swedish market, and Plejd is trading at a very high valuation. Let's see if they coexist or one is a risk for the other
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Sergi
Sergi@sergimp16·
Shelly is a very good company. But you need to understand how this stock has been working forever. At 70€ the implied return for this year was already around 0%. That's why it's down. People started to post dream topline numbers for them in 2026, and a realistic guide came.
Pнαηтαѕ@PhantasTrader

Shelly Group ($SLYG) has released its FY 2025 results and concluded the earnings call. While the long-term outlook remains bright, the stock is currently down 20% from its January ATH. Here are a few thoughts on the report and the underlying dynamics.

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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@AutismCapital China is not even going to consider this unless Taiwan formally declares its independence, which would be a big mistake. The risks and cost are too high.
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Autism Capital 🧩
Autism Capital 🧩@AutismCapital·
🚨 BREAKING: The New York Times reports that Tim Cook of Apple and other top tech executives were warned that China could attack Taiwan by 2027 and that they should plan accordingly.
Autism Capital 🧩 tweet media
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Capytal Management
Capytal Management@capytalmgmt·
$CYD has to ruin the day eh? I actually failed to find a reason why it dropped after earnings since the numbers were great. Apparently it missed estimates? Trying to find the actual estimates
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@capytalmgmt "I think we expect that to improve by double digits this year for the data centers. Overall, I think this year's non data center sales is gonna be more or less the same if the government continues with the what we call policies from last year."
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@capytalmgmt There is a what I call bright spot. We see a lot of big demand in the data centers last year, and that has maintained, and we expect it to improve this year, it's hard to give you a percentage for the growth."
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@capytalmgmt "Whether or not the government is going to continue with that and how strongly they're gonna push that next year, it's yet to be seen. That will also determine the, the impact on the, overall, unit sales growth plan."
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@capytalmgmt The CEO wasn't too positive on 2026 guidance on the CC. "Well, it's gonna be quite challenging, difficult to provide good guidance in China. You know, in China, the sales, a lot of it is due to government policies, driven by government policies, right?"
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Curt Schuelein
Curt Schuelein@ValueInvest2020·
@rubicon59 Again, engines are a relatively small part of $PSIX data center business. They are supplied on a private label basis and integrated by them into enclosure packages for another company. Their core business is enclosure packages that incorporate primarily CAT/CMI engines.
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