@Asker_itwasme @taobanker can't dm you but if you send me a msg, i can send over the source code for a yfinance version so you can play around w it.
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Simba
494 posts
Dude I pay a decent amount of attention to short interest trends in my workbook and shorts are just absolutely relentless these days. 32.9% of $VITL outstanding is short, up over 10 percentage points in the last 30 days!
These are so many people out there hammering losers.
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Is the quick $ACMR pitch that it's the leader for wet-cleaning in China and as chips get more complex, every wafer needs more cleaning steps + a tailwind from the HBM and advanced-packaging boom? The market is not giving them credit for the durability of the revenue stream?
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@ACapitalLP Thanks for the putting the name on my radar! Great call out.
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$FRMI committed to a binding tenant agreement within 90 days and paused site CapEx until a lease is signed. Dated catalyst at $7 with decent r/r given the hard assets + scarce 6 GW air permit
Simba@anonymouskeepit
@ACapitalLP Based on the SOTP you shared and general inference shortage trade, you'd have to imagine that if the earnings call reveals any semblance of progress $FRMI goes flying. x.com/ACapitalLP/sta…
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I was wrong on how quickly the market would appreciate the SST story and give $ENPH credit for their data center exposure. Based on price action, looks like their conference meeting today went well. Given the short interest, this could get explosive quickly.
Simba@anonymouskeepit
$ENPH is messy to model right now -> 25D expiration, channel inventory swings, Propel ramp, and the shift from direct sales to TPO all muddy the underlying demand picture (though i believe we bottomed in q1). Re-rate probably needs 1-2 clean quarters showing demand has bottomed, which is a 2H26 story at earliest. The data center angle is a small call option imo (demo isn't until late 2026 with shipments in 2028, so it shouldn't drive a near-term re-rate).
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@BlackScholesMan I was wrong on the data center re-rate timeline. Mgmt has been pushing the SST angle hard and looks like the story is getting traction (stock up to 42 vs low 30s post print). Deutsche conference tomorrow so we should hear more news.
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$ENPH is messy to model right now -> 25D expiration, channel inventory swings, Propel ramp, and the shift from direct sales to TPO all muddy the underlying demand picture (though i believe we bottomed in q1). Re-rate probably needs 1-2 clean quarters showing demand has bottomed, which is a 2H26 story at earliest. The data center angle is a small call option imo (demo isn't until late 2026 with shipments in 2028, so it shouldn't drive a near-term re-rate).
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$enph - no position so this more of a out loud thinking. I'm very appreciative that I have some very sharp people that follow me that comment. We have a) energy shortages b) company trying to pivot to ai infrastructure c) 12 forward p/e. What would it take for this company rerate? Thanks
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@rennyzucker yea figured as much given the growth.
appreciate the additional context!
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@anonymouskeepit It’s possible that some ahead-of-plan scale growth turned into mix related headwinds but there’s so much here I wouldn’t be too concerned.
Chuck sounds confident.
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That is straight up the best hardware guide I’ve ever seen.
Renny@rennyzucker
Love CSCO but probably gonna need to reveal a vaccine that cures all illnesses and is the limitless pill
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@rennyzucker Yup, think we discussed a quarter back. NTGR was able to shift mix enough to cover for increased prices.
I was looking on the GM line; agreed that OPM doesn't matter much in this environment and is arguably a benefit
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@anonymouskeepit Good question, I’ve only read the headlines and press release not reviewed consensus deeply yet.
NTGR actually handled that headwind well compared to other small OEMs
Looking more on the GM or OPM line?
If OPM it’s almost certainly plowing $ back into Silicon One (very good)
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@ACapitalLP Based on the SOTP you shared and general inference shortage trade, you'd have to imagine that if the earnings call reveals any semblance of progress $FRMI goes flying.
x.com/ACapitalLP/sta…
A Capital@ACapitalLP
$FRMI Liquidation Value Perception <> Reality 🤷♂️
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@anonymouskeepit It is from today around when I sent it. Fidelity is probably going to have some of the best borrow on the street with its retail base
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$WOLF note from Fidelity stock loan desk:
Borrow fees for Wolfspeed are moving deeper into hard to borrow territory with shares on-loan more than doubling in response to increased convert overhang....Current inventory in the securities lending market is limited given ~26 million of the company's ~31 million share float is currently on-loan, with Renesas and insiders holding ~17.5 million of the company's ~48.3 million shares outstanding
By not issuing another convert, the stock could countinue to squeeze much higher and they could issue shares using an ATM instead. Seems like the better route at this point
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@anonymouskeepit @stoked_on_waves @astridwilde1 Again, to be clear, every name that has ever had a 1bp down day has these kinds of suits filed all the time. This ain't what drove the selloff.
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@stoked_on_waves @linglingfool @astridwilde1 ya probably right. I don't think the move was caused by someone shorting (no change in borrow rate / shares available) so I wonder who the seller is. Maybe Navellier? They filed for chapter 11 but only hold 100k shares so doesn't explain the move.
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@anonymouskeepit @linglingfool @astridwilde1 Oh I’m 99.9% sure the print is ass. This doesn’t look like zero information tape to me, it would bounce
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