@GoForGrubes2 If market soaring is combined with rates/mortgage spreads falling then perhaps building materials? BXC/BLDR?
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Simba
335 posts
ASSUMING 🇺🇸 simply withdraws subject to 'retaliation attacks only' (more likely than ceasefire IMO), what's the most giga shorted or torquey name to long on leverage if you BELIEVE markets will soar in the ST?
Commodities MacGruber@GoForGrubes2
April I said that any combo of agreements could make markets 🚀 by 10% (I never make these predictions) Think same setup is here that you'd see similar reversals largely based upon positioning & we could see a 5% up day I'm on Spring Break so don't take this too literally
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Idk why they’re doing this tbh.
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
Overnight, the Israeli Air Force, for the first time since the start of combat operations, carried out airstrikes against military assets with the Iranian Navy in the Caspian Sea, targeting the Headquarters of the Iranian Navy’s Northern Fleet and naval vessels at the Port of Bandar Anzali in Northern Iran.
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@anonymouskeepit all other cement stonks down 20% in last month tho
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@taobanker There's 3 bands:
Below $69.00 : max rate of 0.7246 per depositary share
Between $69.00 and $81.08: exactly $50
Above $81.08: min rate of 0.6167 per depositary share
There's also a sweetener if there's a takeout (dividend make-whole)
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@anonymouskeepit i think you might be thinking there's a floor on the mandatory conversion when there isn't?
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@taobanker I'm not super sharp on the prefs but it seems to be the better deal? 10% yield at these levels and you get some upside with accretion to par as WHR recovers and then extra upside if WHR is >80 if im reading the docs correctly.
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@anonymouskeepit whats up with all these mandatory conversion issues lately ... looks kinda interesting tho idk what do you think?
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@FishOnCapital Any specific reason for the GTX sell off other than macro?
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$AER is getting interesting at ~130 which is ~1.2x 12/31 book value. Management probably repurchasing aggressively given capital allocation policy. Obviously some counterparty and releasing risk but an attractive entry imo if you think crisis will resolve soon.
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@tclaugus2 @blondesnmoney posted about it yesterday if you want a little more context!
x.com/blondesnmoney/…
Cluseau Investments@blondesnmoney
People are plowing into $LXU, $UAN, $IPI on fertilizer concerns, and if we do end up having a year like 2022 I get why those names would benefit, but $IFOS is already trading at 5x earnings, has a pristine balance sheet with a net cash position, and a heavily aligned management team (Castlelake owns 60%). I think Itafos trades at a sizeable discount to peers likely due to the fact it's listed on the Venture exchange and not accessible to most US investors, but as the company continues to put up record numbers and returns cash via special dividends (now that they have reduced a $250 Million net debt position to close to zero over the last 5 years), I think it'll finally garner some attention. Cheapest in the peer group, clean balance sheet, aligned owners, and now a decent tailwind.
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Interesting microcap on the fertilizer bull run is $IFOS.CN . Looks very cheap despite the spike.... interesting.... Not sure the numbers are right... Don't know anything about the company. Off the cuff comment.
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@taobanker Are they still promising a datacenter contract that hasn't materialized?
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@ShmuelLon 70% of the lowest VWAP over 10 consecutive trading days floored at $1.15 + if the prefs are still outstanding then you get the warrant dilution too. I'd imagine that anything > 2.5 is probably a gift of a short entry.
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@anonymouskeepit It's in my shitco list so makes sense. If their prefs have a definite conversion price maybe the pump can give a good entry for a short
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"The credit agreement requires at least 80% of projected PDP production to be hedged through March 2028. As of the Q1 2025 analysis, hedges covered ~85% of daily production through 2025, with locked prices of $64.29/bbl oil" and I believe that max dilution from conversion is somewhere near 300m shares with the trigger on March 26th.
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@ShmuelLon think Josh Young is pumping it. Would double check both their hedging program + their series F preferred. Due to their bank loan, they have little upside to oil in 2026 and there's a huge chunk of dilution coming up this month
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I like this idea. think $BBW has a pretty low bar to clear for earnings, down almost 40% from recent highs due to tariff concerns + perceived consumer weakness.
taobanker@taobanker
i'm long $bbw into earnings
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