Ken
190 posts


The Americans are out of moves. They've even coined a new term — "AI communism" — to smear China's open-source AI. But I have a feeling that China's open-source AI will become so overwhelmingly successful that it will actually start to make "communism" — a word that has been stigmatized in the West for the past century — shine from the dust.
In other words, communism will not drag China's open-source AI down. Rather, China's open-source AI will drag communism up.

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@kim_farry @NikkiHaley No we didn’t strike the school. Iran did that by accident and admitted so. The problem is the missile was American made. We gave it to them. So… sounds bad to say that. But we have paid for both sides of every conflict and provided the weapons for them for our entire lives.
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中国是世界上鸡蛋消费量最大的国家之一。数据显示,该国鸡蛋批发价格创下10年来的新高。甚至连官方媒体也开始用“火箭蛋”一词来形容价格的飞涨。在这个仍在努力摆脱通缩的经济体中,蛋价暴涨显得尤为令人痛苦。cn.nytimes.com/business/20260…
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@APompliano 美国禁止中国的电动汽车,中国的电动汽车成为世界第一,美国禁止中国光伏,中国光伏成为世界第一,现在美国禁止中国芯片,不就中国芯片也会成为世界第一,现在美国禁止中国模型,可中国模型马上就成为世界第一
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Lost to China in 5G? Ban.
Lost to China in EVs? Ban.
Lost to China in PV? Ban.
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Lose to China in AI now? Nothing new. Ban.
Whale Insider@WhaleInsider
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump administration weighs strict curbs on Chinese AI models after Moonshot Kimi K3 launch, including U.S. host liability and backlist threats.
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let's talk about Chinese AI software
first, $BABA and Tencent are Moonshot's big strategic investors, and Moonshot is raising $2B at a ~$30B valuation ahead of a potential Hong Kong listing. every point of K3 hype marks up Alibaba's stake.
second, Qwen just lost its crown: K3 at 2.8T params is now the largest open-weight model, leapfrogging Qwen domestically, with DeepSeek V4 stable landing July 24 and MiniMax's 2.7T model coming in Q3. china's open-model race is now a knife fight, and Alibaba's own model family is no longer the obvious national champion.
third, and this is the part the market misprices: Alibaba Cloud hosts everyone. whoever wins the model knife fight, the compute runs on somebody's cloud, and Alibaba has 35.8% of China's AI cloud market, more than the next three players combined.
cloud grew 38% last quarter, AI product revenue has grown triple digits for eleven straight quarters, and AI is expected to be over half of cloud revenue within a year. management said in May they will likely overshoot the 380B yuan ($53B) three-year AI capex plan. the cost of that ambition is visible and ugly: capex up 80% YoY, free cash flow negative, adjusted net income down 99.7% ex-items in the March quarter, plus a quick-commerce price war eating the domestic margin, so the stock de-rated 40% because the market is punishing exactly the same thing it punishes Meta for: spending into the buildout with the payoff on a later tape.
China also just started metering limited H200 imports back in, which directly relieves the compute constraint that K3's sold-out sign advertised, and chinese labs getting even second-tier Nvidia supply is an accelerant for Alibaba Cloud's order book
$BABA is the cheapest way to own the China side of the AI buildout: 18x forward, $316B yuan in cash, a Moonshot stake as a free option, and a cloud business compounding at 38% while the market stares at the negative FCF line.
the risks are real though and you know them: the profit collapse could persist another year if the quick-commerce war drags on, US-China policy can reprice the ADR overnight (the K3 weights release July 27 plus Xi's new AI governance body will pull Washington's attention), truce with China expiries in November, and there's no earnings catalyst until August 28.
ranking against the three Americans: $GOOGL and $MSFT are cleaner holds into their prints. $BABA is the higher-beta, higher-drama satellite, but If you want China AI exposure, I would rather own the landlord (BABA cloud) than pick the model winner, because as of last week the model winner changes every ten days.
next two weeks: drift up, call it 60% chance, the Kimi K3 weights release July 27 and the H200 import metering are China-AI tailwinds, Moonshot's valuation markup helps the stake, and there's no BABA-specific landmine until August 28.
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