Israel and the United States appear to be in an all-or-nothing gamble vis-à-vis Iran. The likelihood of another campaign of the scale we are currently seeing in the coming months or years is very low, given the heavy political and logistical constraints — not to mention the possibility of other conflicts that could draw in the core attention of the United States, first and foremost China–Taiwan as we approach 2027. Given that this may be a near one-time opportunity, it is clear that Israel and the United States are doing everything they can to maximize the achievements of the campaign — including attempts to work with various actors to destabilize the Iranian regime from within. But what happens if the Iranian regime survives? And if, after this campaign, it moves to rebuild its strategic capabilities — including the nuclear program? It is doubtful that the United States and Israel would again be able to mobilize such a concentration of military power for another round. This creates a Catch-22. Despite the significant operational achievements, ending this campaign without the fall of the regime — or at least without a surrender-type agreement in which Iran abandons its nuclear and missile capabilities — could lead to a situation in which the regime eventually rebuilds and grows stronger without an effective way to stop it. Paradoxically, years from now this war could end up contributing to Iran’s future power if it fails to bring about regime change. The regime clearly faces enormous internal and external challenges and will not recover easily. But ending the campaign in a way similar to previous rounds — if that is even possible — could produce the opposite of the intended outcome. The key question, therefore, is whether the administration will intensify its activities to pursue the far more ambitious goal of regime change, or instead move quickly toward some form of agreement that could constrain Iran’s future military buildup — if such an agreement is even achievable. Like poker players pushing all their chips into the pot, Israel and the United States seem to be “all in.” The strategic upside of regime change would be enormous for the region — but failing to achieve it could lead to a particularly painful strategic loss. #iranisrae
