Bob

I'll say this, you can't find a person more critical of officials than me, I guarantee it. But, the fact that @ESPNRefNHL gets on here every day and spars with the common folk deserves immense recognition.

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ OK.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ No, that is not wrong lol

Look im new to baseball but have been playing MLB the show career mode I find it insane that if you get to 1st base on an error you get no hit, no on base credit, just an 0 for 1 The ball hit off my bat and im on 1st base. Thats a valid hit to me idk

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Wrong. Completely, factually wrong. That's literally what statistics is. It's a prediction of an outcome. It does not matter how many events are included. If the odds are the same for one thing occurring or 1000 things occurring collectively, then the likelihood is the same.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ It’s significantly easier to predict what will happen on a singular ball put in play than it is to predict what will happen in an entire game

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Alright, well this has been fun.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ That’s not my point at all. You are talking about a whole game, not a single play. Which is why it’s different. Also throwing the ball away is not a defensive mistake, and they didn’t even attempt a shot in that scenario. Just more reasons why the direct comparison is dumb

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Does one matter more?

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ I didn’t say one matters more, I said they are not the same thing

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ But, throwing the ball into the stands is a single bad mistake. Do we not call errors in baseball if there were other mistakes made during the game?

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Which means they have both performed actions that helped and hurt their teams. Which is why it’s not the same as a singular bad mistake

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Why would a single action matter more than a culmination of actions when the likelihood they occur is statistically identical?

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Because it was a single action, and because it doesn’t include hundreds of other actions that could have been good or bad

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ OK, fair. Both offenses and defenses have been statistically identical. Their team has any forced advantage in the game whatsoever.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ How have they both played perfectly if they’ve both allowed points? A team that played perfectly would score on every possession and not allow their opponent to score on any possession

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Because it was a single, unlikely, individual error?

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ I care about the likelihood of an individual action that is bad. Not hundreds of consecutive actions that could be good or bad

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ OK, so you don't care about the statistical likelihood of the error occurring?

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ The odds being similar does not automatically mean the situations that produce those odds are similar

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ The likelihood of them occurring is identical. The likelihood an error occurs is why you think it should matter. So, they're identical when comparing their likelihood of occurrence, which is the entire point you're making.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Bridge the gap, not act like they are identical lol

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Correct, which is why we have statistics to bridge the gap between two non-identical things.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Theirs not identical situations

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Math is dumb. Got it.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Dumb to compare the likelihood of 1 single action to the likelihood of a series of hundreds or thousands of actions

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Why? They're statistically identical. They both have exactly the same chance of happening.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ It makes perfect sense to classify the most blatantly obvious individual errors as mistakes. It doesn’t make sense to discredit an underdog winning

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ So, only easy fly balls that are dropped should remove the hit? Nothing else?

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ And I said easy fly ball because that’s as obvious as it can get that the batter should have been out

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Dumb to compare the likelihood of two separate outcomes based on the marmalade likelihood that each occurs. Brilliant.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ I didn’t say it invalidates the odds lol. I said that’s why it’s dumb to compare them to each other

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ You're exactly right, you can. Which is why picking and choosing makes absolutely no sense.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ You’re never going to convince me of anything you are arguing. You can literally classify almost anything as a mistake if you want to nit pick everything

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Sure, they could. Or, they could lose because they made mistakes. Either way, we don't ignore the result.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ Yes, I understand that. I’m saying the reason the odds can get that high for full games or full seasons is because of how many factors go into it. The worse team could win because half the favored team gets hurt during the game. That’s not an error

@ChocoIateDaddy @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ 1. You claimed those favorites don't exist. You were proven wrong. 2. You claimed the number of factors invalidates the odds. You were proven wrong. 3. We're discussing errors, which I gave stats for.

@VthTake @EdReedMachine20 @chaserobertsonn @RonStewart_ 1. None of those teams won so it didn’t matter 2. I already explained why odds for games are not comparable to odds for 1 singular play 3. I did say “easy fly ball”, not just any error. Easy fly balls are not dropped 1.5% of the time. Estimates on dropped fly balls are under .5%