willy mcmoon

@DrJStrategy This is ALL predicated on 14% earnings growth every year, which has never happened before, and likely will not. Of course if you extrapolate and compound insane E growth, that far into the future, the growth becomes exponential, hence why it never happens.

S&P 500 target 14,000 My run‑hot thesis Yes you’re not bullish enough. Markets are finally asking the right question: what kind of earnings and multiples can a Trump‑era, AI‑powered “run‑hot” regime actually support, and how does that differ from the post‑GFC world of secular stagnation and permanent caution. The answer looks less like a replay of the 2010s and more like a modernised version of the late 1980s and 1990s, when growth, productivity and valuation rose together. For those who take the long view, not the day‑trading crowd, the run‑hot thesis is a framework for compounding real earnings and productivity over years, not for trading the next headline. In this sequel, Trump runs the economy hot, nominal GDP grows near 7 per cent a year and S&P 500 earnings grow at roughly 1.5–2 times that pace, powered by an AI capex super‑cycle, full expensing and a deliberate rebuild of productive capacity. If earnings are around US$400 in 2027, that regime produces roughly US$600–650 by 2031, implying 10.5–14 per cent annual EPS growth. From there, valuation drives the range of outcomes. In the base case, the market believes the story but stops short of mania: earnings near US$600, forward multiples around 22 times and an S&P 500 in the low‑to‑mid 13,000s. A stronger supply‑side bull case, where investors treat this as a durable productivity reset, stretches to 25 times earnings and 15,000–16,000. A euphoric 1999‑style phase pushes the multiple towards 30 times and the index into the 18,000–19,500 band, with dividend reinvestment lowering the hurdle on a total‑return basis. The alternative, a world that only delivers 10,000 by 2031, is simply the old regime in disguise: slower nominal GDP, middling earnings and flat multiples. The run‑hot thesis says that anchor is wrong. In an AI‑driven, supply‑side American system, investors either price a genuine repricing of productive capacity, or they mis‑price a decade of higher output before it happens.

@AndreasSteno @TheEarlyStage As someone who has a severe autoimmune disease and has spent years in support groups, I can tell you without a doubt, you do NOT want to be sick in Europe or Canada. Universal healthcare is great, until you actually need it.

@TheEarlyStage Come on……….

I hate high taxes, but why anyone would die on the hill defending the U.S. healthcare system is beyond my understanding. You can't find a system anywhere on Earth that delivers worse value for money. Incredibly expensive. Mediocre outcome.

@Marcellusiye @nickbuccero lol he found 15 Minnesota “learing centers” in one building. Uncovered Billions of dollars of spending with no actual customers. You’re telling me there are good explanations for that? Before you answer, remember people are going going to prison over it…

@nickbuccero Nick Shirley is a retarded Jewish owned rat. If you would do your research for 10 minutes you would find all of his claims to be false, he doesn’t do anything. Ask him about Israel or the administration shamelessly committing fraud everyday.

Look. I don’t care what your politics are. This is happening at scale all across the country, and there are real, serious people out there that want to convince you all our problems would be solved by taxing people more. It’s fantasy land

@ShaneBattier333 @nickbuccero This is the dumbest thing I’ve read today.

@nickbuccero Is there probably a ton of over billing and Medicare fraud? Yes. Is the way this moron is going about “uncovering” a good idea? No. He hasn’t actually “uncovered” a single thing in any of this stunts, it’s either him not understanding things or finding already reported fraud

@T_Rizzle77 @mattvanswol You mean democrats. There, FTFY.

@mattvanswol The biggest takeaway from this world cup is how much our politicians have pitted us against each other through propaganda. It’s a much different thing when you meet face to face.

🚨#BREAKING: A German soccer fan who flew to the USA but was fearful about coming because of news about criminals and people being mean... ...breaks down into TEARS, live on air saying he has FALLEN IN LOVE with America after a random man named "Bob" in Boston gave him a ride home after he was stuck at a game with no way back to his hotel The German soccer fan's name is Sebastian, he said after meeting Bob, he extended his entire trip. He said leaving America will hurt worse than watching Germany get knocked out of the World Cup. "I fall in love with America. I'm sorry, it's just so emotional. Americans are not rude... if we are together, we can achieve great things." THIS IS THE AMERICA I KNOW!!!!!! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

@byronlacroix @zerohedge lol you really are a moron who doesn’t understand science, eh? There’s a reason gain of function was banned in the us. In “researching” like you say, ie modifying, you can cause the exact spillover you sought to prevent. Not that complicated.

@zerohedge You dumb fucks!!!! Viruses crossover from animals to humans. They were researching how to protect against that. Goddamn it, you people are so fucking stupid!!!

From the Gabbard files: "Just saw this video online. It’s from a 2016 NY Academy of Medicine meeting where Daszak (@PeterDaszak) talks about his colleagues in China manipulating the spike protein on coronavirus to make them more virulent."

@DrewPavlou @GavinNewsom @SdBachman Best comment

@GavinNewsom @SdBachman I watched the fights from Australia and thought it made America look cool as fuck Democrats are miserable

The White House was built to serve the American people. Tonight it was used to promote a company the President owns stock in, sell subscriptions, promote corporate sponsors, push Trump crypto, and enrich the President and his family. The founders warned us about kings enriching themselves from public office. They did not fight a revolution for this.

@stepfanie @jay_schiavone Marry me

@jay_schiavone As a true American, I urge you to shut the fuck up

As a former retarded liberal, I do genuinely understand how psychologically taxing the Freedom 250 event must be, esp for someone suffering from advanced TDS Testosterone raging Military aviation performing low-altitude affirmations of state capacity Trump saluting with full sincerity A statistically improbable density of red, white, and blue Country music at government scale Thousands of people exhibiting what appears to be national pride without even a hint of irony or self-loathing It’s essentially every comment section’s worst-case hypothetical rendered into physical reality

@imetatronink After all your nonsense, Trump wins. US wins. You are a clown

“Man's most valuable trait is a judicious sense of what not to believe.” ― Euripides

@RonStoeferle Are you saying they will revalue their currency higher or lower?

MUST WATCH: Chinese state TV is slowly planting the idea of “revaluation” in the public mind. What was unthinkable yesterday is being normalized today—softly, subtly, strategically. Watch from 4:58: youtube.com/watch?v=As0rpl… If monetary history teaches us anything, it is this: first they deny, then they prepare, then they act. @LukeGromen @Frank_Giustra @ttmygh @GoldTelegraph_ @GoldSwitzerland @radigancarter @IGWTreport @TaviCosta @wmiddelkoop

@vissjovineeee how much has your sfn improved Vincent?

@paulkrugman how'd this age? geez, you're so dense

So go big. The risks of undershooting are too severe to do anything else 4/

My long form defense of going big on pandemic rescue. IT'S NOT ABOUT STIMULUS. It's like fighting a war (on pandemic fallout.) And you spend what you need to win a war, not just enough to close the output gap 1/ nytimes.com/2021/02/07/opi…

@LoganMohtashami @paulkrugman how'd this comment work out for you?

@paulkrugman Inflation data this century, not much happening even with all disaster relief, 27 trillion-plus in federal debt, and low-interest rates. Also, with low tax rates.

@RaffaellaGrecoM @TheEBMT @jacionline Hi Dr Greco im sufferin from severe neuro-sjogrens disease. All conventional treatments failed. It's destroyed my life. Do you have any ideas or conections for how i might be able to get car-t therapy as part of a trial?

Novel therapeutic concepts in #SLE: from #Tregs to #CARTcell strategies. CARTconv or CARTregs? On behalf of @TheEBMT #ADWP. @jacionline jacionline.org/article/S0091-…

@mmiliauskas @paulkrugman This made me laugh out loud pretty hard

Thinking more about reactions to the Truss/Kwarteng not-a-budget released Friday. While I yield to nobody in my disdain for their embrace of zombie economics, I'm puzzled by all the talk about a looming sterling crisis 1/