Wall Street Hipster

Statement on behalf of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran:

Iran: Trump has accepted Iranian demands.

“This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

*TRUMP: AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKS

@policytensor Don’t think it’s Nukes, it’s been his position to avoid this at all costs. Think it’s an attack on energy infrastructure which has been highly socialized into this deadline. A more discrete way is to blackout their grid via cyber warfare, rather than complete kinetic destruction.

Is he unhinged enough to order first use? I don’t think so. But I am not sure; he may not be of sound mind. What I do know is that the Iranians will not capitulate to nuclear threats. If he is unhinged enough to order first use, I hope that military officers understand their obligations to the constitution and elementary human morality. It is likely that the order is refused. It will almost certainly cause an unprecedented crisis in civil-military relations, possibly triggering a mutiny. The power to order a nuclear attack should’ve already have been circumscribed by law to exclude coercive first use. It was not bc designers wanted this most safety-critical of all safety-critical systems to simultaneously satisfy absolute ‘negative control’ (no use without valid authorization) and ‘positive control’ (no failure to launch once a valid weapons release order is given). The system was designed to maximize the freedom of action and direct control by the executive. The system is by design, then, not robust to the possibility of executive level incompetence. This may prove to have been a fatal flaw if he decides to break the nuclear taboo tonight.

@shanaka86 My hot take is US blacks out the energy infrastructure in Tehran tonight via a cyberattack similar to what was done in Venezuela. Show of force, maybe avoids war crimes? Maybe? Extends the deadline.

BREAKING: JD Vance just confirmed US strikes on Kharg Island from a podium in Budapest standing next to Viktor Orban. Then he pulled out his phone mid-press conference to check an unread text from Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy for Iran negotiations. Then he said the war will end very shortly and the US has tools in its toolkit it has not yet decided to use. Most coverage is treating the Iran signals and the Ukraine signals as two separate stories. They are not. They are one move. Vance credited Trump and Orban as the two leaders who have done the most to end the Ukraine war. He proposed Budapest as the venue for a leaders’ summit. He said Orban has been better than anybody at helping Washington understand what the Ukrainians need and what the Russians need to achieve peace. He accused EU bureaucrats of foreign election interference in Hungary five days before Orban faces voters. Now hold both threads simultaneously. Orban is the only NATO leader with a documented direct channel to Putin. He is also one of the only European leaders publicly aligned with Trump’s transactional diplomacy. The Iran war has structurally removed Gulf energy supply from global markets for what the IEA calls the largest disruption in history. That removal destroys Russia’s primary leverage over Europe, which was energy dependency, because Europe is now scrambling for non-Russian, non-Gulf alternatives and building the infrastructure to never be dependent on either again. The trans-domain move is this: the Iran war makes the Ukraine deal possible. As long as Russia held the European gas card, Putin had no incentive to negotiate. With Hormuz closed and Gulf petrochemical capacity destroyed for years, the entire global energy map is being redrawn. Russia’s gas leverage over Europe is depreciating in real time because Europe is being forced into permanent diversification by the molecule crisis, not by policy choice. The leverage that kept Putin at the table as the strong party is evaporating. Vance is in Budapest because Budapest is the hinge. Orban talks to Putin. Orban talks to Trump. Orban hosts the summit. The Iran war provides the energy shock that restructures European dependency. The Ukraine deal follows because Russia’s negotiating position weakens with every week that the Gulf remains offline and Europe builds alternative supply chains it will never dismantle. The Witkoff text is the tell. Back-channel negotiations with Iran are live. The 8 PM deadline tonight is real. If Iran concedes on Hormuz, the energy crisis partially eases and Russia retains some leverage. If Iran does not concede and the US escalates further, Gulf supply stays offline longer, the molecule crisis deepens, European energy diversification accelerates, and Russia’s position erodes further. Either outcome improves the conditions for a Ukraine deal. Vance did not go to Budapest to boost Orban’s election. He went to Budapest because it is the only capital in Europe where you can simultaneously manage the endgame of two wars using the same energy lever. The Iran war is the forcing function for the Ukraine peace. The molecule crisis is the mechanism. Budapest is the node. Watch what happens at 8 PM tonight. Then watch what happens in Kyiv next month. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Shot in the dark on 8pm Iran deadline tonight. US will blackout the power grid in Tehran via cyber warfare similar to Venezuela during Operation Absolute Resolve. JD Vance said today “They’ve got to know we’ve got the tools in our toolkit that we so far haven’t decided to use,”.

It took one month for Iran to become more powerful than OPEC (if we think allowing tolls is considered reopening the Strait), that’s what the market thought was positive news today…

Many discussing which pathways Trump will take but it’s not singular: 1) Negotiate a deal 2) Ground invasion 3) Naval escorts of the Strait 4) Unilateral pullout He threatens allies with option 4, to do option 3. They will fail. Ultimately ends at a coalition led option 2.

TRUMP: AT MY DIRECTION, UNITED STATES CENTRAL COMMAND STRUCK KHARG ISLAND

BREAKING: President Trump has rejected an offer from Russia's President Putin to move Iran's enriched uranium to Russia in a deal to end the war, per Axios. Details include: 1. In a phone call with Trump, Putin proposed moving Iran's enriched uranium to Russia as part of a deal to end the war 2. Securing Iran's 450 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium remains a top priority for the US 3. Trump has acknowledged for the first time that Russia is aiding Iran in the war 4. The US position is we need to see the uranium secured," a US official said

FUCKED.

@maggcapital @BillAckman Bill the thrill!

Meeting my idol @BillAckman on the way to work this morning was a great way to start the day. I should have yelled “release the twins” $FNMA $FMCC but I was too star struck by the silver fox’s tall imposing presence

Even if near-term air superiority is accomplished (unlikely), the economic threat still remains. A ground force is required, and given the leverage Iran has over the world, time won’t allow for a forced regime change.

Anchoring on Irans missile/drone capabilities, and their control of the Strait. It’s an irreducible threat with no way for the US to eliminate. Russia likely provides the satellite feed for Iranian targeting systems. US could trade ending support for Ukraine with Russia for Iran.

Rally rally the markets name is… $SPY #markets #economy #trading #inflation #StocksInFocus #stocks

So does this now mean “Good news is bad news”? Asking for a friend… #inflation #stocks #StockMarket #economy #trading

Short squeeze of the century sold on the narrative of “Bad news is good news”; bought by the optimists trying to justify their losses from being long in a bear market. #stocks #trading #inflation #economy

There’s an old trader saying “Sell in May” which refers to when institutional traders & asset managers are taking vacation, therefore not actively managing positions. Trading volumes drop & market moves appear more drastic than they really are. #stocks #economy #trading