Warhawk

@traderjon01 My passanger prince 🤣

@WarhawkTrading Pick me up bro! 🔥🔥

Vroom vroom

Everyone wants to be successful but give up the minute things get hard

@piyush784066 @nikitabier Success comes from dozens of prior failures that were really just experimentations and iterations, making them not truly failures, just stepping stones.

> be @nikitabier > spent 5 years building 14 failed apps > almost shut down his company with 2 weeks of cash left > built TBH got 5M users in 9 weeks > $0 spent on marketing, sold it to Facebook for $30M > asked himself "what if I run it again" > built Gas, basically the same app > 10M users in 3 months, $0 on ads, sold it to Discord > publicly tweeted "hire me to run Twitter" got ignored > Elon ignored him for 3 years > and finally became Head of Product at 𝕏 bro sold the same app twice, memed his way into one of the biggest jobs in tech, and made it look easy absolute legend 🐐

Pressure is a privilege. When you're tired, remember you wished for this. Be thankful.

@stockswithflav No pressure = not going hard enough

The die is cast 🏇

@hamptonism That’s easy… $2B immediately!! Because time value of money. Finance 101 baby 🗣️🔥

Quant Interview Question:

@hamptonism Nah wait, don't count me out yet.

They’re selling dollars for ¢.58 cents…

Is their money not green? Plenty of large companies had no problem with them at the table just go through the fund’s holdings… I think hating on them is an easy bandwagon take to get a lot of engagement, but I strongly disagree. Also, from a founder’s perspective, if @jakepaul is in your DMs, you’re opening it. But a random founder with 2k followers? Good chance you sit on delivered no matter how good your product is. His ability to make intros is second to none. An example of this is he was one of the OG celebrity cameos behind the virality of Sora. A super recognizable face helped Sora break records first week. Open AI could’ve had a check from anyone and still gladly took their’s. (I think Sora would’ve been fine or without them, but it did serve as a cherry on top, that point is just showing how their likeness could be used as both an investor and a marketer). If I had two deals in front of me of equal check sizes, I’d rather have Jake Paul than a random 50 year old Jack Smith Harvard MBA who’s had no achievements outside of his cubicle and who’s advice isn’t worth the 2 cents because they’re behind on the trends. The same way your grandparents struggle with the internet, and your parents with ai… most older VCs will have a tougher time conceptualizing / advising on trends than the younger generation who watched it and experienced it from the beginning.

call me crazy but i don't want them anywhere near my cap table

@SharpEdgeSB @Polymarket @Kalshi @Novig @PlayProphetX @4CxSweeps I’ll give you a code! Long time no see bro

@WarhawkTrading @Polymarket @Kalshi @Novig @PlayProphetX @4CxSweeps 👀

Coming soon... Starting with @Polymarket, @Kalshi, @Novig, @PlayProphetX, and @4CxSweeps.

In my opinion that is just reverse survivorship bias. MrBeast and brands (300m+ subs) $250m+ AAR Emma Chamberlain (12m subs) and her coffee company $20m+ AAR Jake Paul (20m subs) Co-founded @betr and @Antifund with @geoffreywoo who just closed another $30m recently with investments in OpenAI, Anduril, Polymarket, and Ramp Nelk (7m subs) with Happy Dad at a 0.25B+ valuation, and I worked on their NFT project that made $23m I believe many successful creators have great business acumen and are extremely intelligent. Many of the people who act like jesters in front of the camera, are behind the scenes very intelligent. It's no easy task running a dozen person operation on tight schedules, iterating ideas, and keeping up with trends. However, sometimes they take their success and intelligence in one field, and try applying it in places they have no business being in. That trap isn't just limited to creators though. I mostly stick to technology for risky markets as my M.O. is trading / pricing technologies. My biggest failures were a CBD and apparel company I had no business starting lol. Burned $40k combined on those two. I would also still consider many of the ones you listed as successes from the founder's perspective even if not from the investor's perspective. For example, Faze Clan's members and founders still profited a ton, it's just it's investors holding the bag. So maybe not a rocketship from the investor's perspective, but still made value for the creators. Nokia and Under Armor were once rocketships with a crazy peak valuation and then a large fall. I don't think your examples have anything to do with being "creator founded" but more so are just a few examples of failures. Many of the ones I listed could just as well fail, and many of the ones you listed can also turn their ship around. I find the topic of attention economy to monetization interesting though as I believe business moats are shifting from tech moats to attention moats. @cluely and @im_roy_lee is the most recent and prominent examples. I tried writing them a check before a16z came in literally within 48 hours of my dm. But id strongly bet on the attention economy. Lmk your thoughts cause I like this topic a lot and would yap for hours about it.

Faze Clan (9m subs) went from a $725m to $15m valuation 100 Thieves went from $420m valuation to close to 0 Ali Abdaal (6.5m subs) shut down his YouTube agency Logan Paul x KSI's Prime fell from $1bn valuation (40m combined subs) Casey Neistat's Beem instantly closed after acquisition (12.6m subs) MKBHD (20m subs) just shut down Panels Spotter Studios ($200m+ funding) just shut down it's tech arm Creators get a lot of hype around 'the quality of the relationship with the audience' Where are their rocketship businesses?

Grok is so bad, easily the worst AI of them all. I do not care about it's tests scores or benchmark scores. It is terrible. It's like a random word generator. It never makes sense. Twitter should just drop out of the AI race and integrate gemini or perplexity or something 🥀

No vigor @Novig

Should check out @PalmerLuckey's 2030 belief (don't recall if it originated from him or if he was just repeating it, also year may be wrong). Quick spark notes on it: Basically China's population demographics such as age and it's economic situation give China a limited window where their economy and population have the capability for an invasion. So Anduril's development urgency comes from meeting the defense demands of that window, because after that window closes China's capability of executing an invasion drastically decreases, so if China does do it, it will be in that window.

@jackmac I lean politically libertarian, but that cultural preservation moment is kind of cool. People should be more loyal to their hometown / alma mater imo. The proximity should make it more personal.

Nothing is more American than traveling to an away game with the fellas and enjoying some local HS football the night before. There’s literal laws that protect the sanctity of this so the NFL doesn’t start putting games on Friday nights (they would’ve by now). Nothing odd about this.

@geoffreywoo TV was the dumbest concept ever. I never used it in any of my models. No examples of it ever being accurate throughout history.

Terminal value of everything is zero. It takes deliberate, concentrated focus to continue compounding.

@agapekeleta @wrotator I was surviving until they said builder 😞🥀

@wrotator im an idiot

Stuff idiots love to say: >physiognomy >phenotype >ontologically evil >directionally correct (i.e. wrong) >suicidal empathy >midwit >spiritually ___ >from first principles >Nietzschean >agentic >you can just do stuff™ >longhoused >schizo- (as a prefix) >esoteric >builder

a prediction market event contract that pays out based on which pocket the ball lands in. who's building this