Old School Investor 💎

Gijs Strijker heeft aan anderhalve minuut genoeg om gehakt te maken van de aanwasbelasting.

Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO. Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry). “The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)” “The scale-up CPO segment is projected to surpass scale-out applications before 2030 and become the dominant market. You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years. With many players like Sivers having no material exposure to previous 800g pluggable optics but are the bleeding edge leaders of CPO as the laser supplier. This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO.

Preliminary April Korea semiconductor export figures: * DRAM: $9.25bn (+15% MoM, +83% QoQ) * DRAM modules: $6.14bn (-17% MoM, +70% QoQ) * NAND: $1.67bn (-34% MoM, +17% QoQ) * MCP: $8.16bn (-5% MoM, +67% QoQ) * SSD: $3.84bn (+20% MoM, +181% QoQ)

$GOOGL | Alphabet Q1’26 Earnings Highlights 🔹 EPS: $5.11 (Est. $2.62-$2.73) 🟢; UP +82% YoY 🔹 Revenue: $109.896B (Est. $106.6B-$107.0B) 🟢; UP +22% YoY 🔹 Operating Income: $39.696B (EBIT Est. $36.3B) 🟢; UP +30% YoY 🔹 Google Cloud Revenue: $20.028B (Est. ~$18B) 🟢; UP +63% YoY 🔹 Google Search & Other Growth: +19% YoY (Est. +16%) 🟢 🔹 YouTube Ads Growth: +11% YoY (Est. +11.7%) 🔴 Google Services: 🔹 Revenue: $89.637B; UP +16% YoY 🔹 Operating Income: $40.589B 🔹 Google Advertising Revenue: $77.253B (Est. ~$76B) 🟢 🔹 Google Search & Other: $60.399B; UP +19% YoY 🔹 YouTube Ads: $9.883B; UP +11% YoY 🔹 Google Network: $6.971B 🔹 Subscriptions, Platforms & Devices: $12.384B; UP +19% YoY Google Cloud: 🔹 Revenue: $20.028B (Est. ~$18B) 🟢; UP +63% YoY 🔹 Operating Income: $6.598B 🔹 Backlog: over $460B Other Bets: 🔹 Revenue: $411M 🔹 Operating Loss: -$2.100B 🔹 Waymo: surpassed 500,000 fully autonomous rides/week Alphabet-Level Activities: 🔹 Operating Loss: -$5.391B 🔹 Alphabet-level activities primarily reflect expenses related to shared AI research and development Other Metrics: 🔹 Total TAC: $15.228B 🔹 Employees: 194,668 🔹 Paid Subscriptions: 350M 🔹 Gemini Enterprise: paid MAUs UP +40% QoQ 🔹 Gemini API Usage: more than 16B tokens/minute; UP +60% QoQ 🔹 Hedging Losses: -$180M 🔹 U.S. Revenue: $53.975B; UP +23% YoY 🔹 EMEA Revenue: $31.468B; UP +21% YoY 🔹 APAC Revenue: $18.288B; UP +23% YoY 🔹 Other Americas Revenue: $6.345B; UP +21% YoY Financials: 🔹 Operating Margin: 36.1%; expanded by 2 percentage points 🔹 Net Income: $62.578B; UP +81% YoY 🔹 Other Income, Net: $37.716B 🔹 Gain on Equity Securities, Net: $36.915B 🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $45.790B 🔹 CapEx: $35.674B 🔹 Free Cash Flow: $10.116B 🔹 TTM Free Cash Flow: $64.429B 🔹 Cash & Marketable Securities: $126.840B 🔹 Long-Term Debt: $77.501B Capital Return: 🔹 Dividend: $0.22/share; UP +5% from prior $0.21/share 🔹 Dividend Payable: June 15, 2026 🔹 Stock Repurchases: $0 CEO Sundar Pichai Commentary: 🔸 “2026 is off to a terrific start.” 🔸 “Our AI investments and full stack approach are lighting up every part of the business.” 🔸 “Search had a strong quarter with AI experiences driving usage, queries at an all time high, and 19% revenue growth.” 🔸 “Google Cloud revenues grew 63% with backlog nearly doubling quarter on quarter to over $460 billion.” 🔸 “This was our strongest quarter ever for our consumer AI plans, driven by the Gemini App.” 🔸 “Overall the number of paid subscriptions has now reached 350 million, with YouTube and Google One being the key drivers.” 🔸 “Gemini Enterprise has great momentum with 40% quarter on quarter growth in paid monthly active users.” 🔸 “Waymo surpass 500,000 fully autonomous rides a week.” 🔸 “Our first-party models, like Gemini, are now processing more than 16 billion tokens per minute via direct API use by our customers, up 60% from last quarter.”

Applaus! Nederland heeft de headlines van Bloomberg gehaald. En wel met splijtende opmerkingen als “the dumbest thing any government on planet earth is pursuing right now” en “a fiscal Frankenstein's monster.” Toch best knap dat je met een totaal kansloze manier om de schatkist te vullen zo te kijk kan worden gezet. Wat speelt er in de hoofden van ‘onze’ beleidsmakers om zo’n krankzinnige belastingregel te verzinnen en, erger nog, dat ze blijkbaar immuun zijn voor een stortvloed aan kritiek, wat ze in ieder geval zou moeten bewegen om er nog eens een keertje goed naar te kijken? Helaas, ‘onze’ beleidsmakers zijn totaal vervreemd van de burgers die ze zeggen te dienen en vullen hun dagen met het implementeren van regeltjes uit Europa, totaal onhaalbare klimaatdoelen en het opleggen van immigratie waarvan het draagvlak flinterdun geworden is. Het is al te bizar voor woorden dat beleidsmakers blijkbaar nul verstand hebben van het effect van het verplicht moeten verkopen van beleggingen op het compounden en het effect van hogere belastingen op de vlucht van financieel en menselijk (vergeet dat vooral niet) kapitaal. Bovendien hebben onze beleidsmakers een zeer selectief geheugen als het om de regels uit Brussel gaat, want daar wordt te pas en te onpas geroepen dat we juist extra moeten investeren. Maar zelfs als je de capaciteit om deze effecten te verwachten niet bezit, moet je toch weten dat de nieuwe box 3-regel met nog meer bureaucratie gepaard gaat. Nu al zijn er talloze uitzonderingen en de advocaten en consultants kijken rijkhalzend uit naar dit episch falen van de overheid, omdat al die ‘echte’ rendementen natuurlijk massaal worden aangevochten. En in Nederland kun je nu eenmaal voor echt alles een zaak beginnen. Het onvermogen om fouten toe te geven, een hele belangrijke eigenschap als je beleid probeert te maken, siert onze beleidsmakers niet. Op de een of andere manier komen objectieve feiten en waarnemingen niet bij onze beleidsmakers aan. Een ander voorbeeld is natuurlijk dat zowat al onze persoonlijke gegevens straks bij Trump in het Witte Huis liggen. Daarom nog maar een keer: ik roep onze beleidsmakers op deze belachelijke belastingregel te schrappen en met een nieuw plan op de proppen te komen. Die tijd hebben ze als ze de idiote klimaatregels, immigratiegekte en Europese bureaucratie achter zich laten. Maar als je zelfs niet gevoelig bent voor hoe de buitenwereld je ronduit belachelijk maakt, acht ik de kans niet heel groot dat we een verbetering gaan zien.

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: Tsmc To Hold Off On Deploying Latest Asml Machines Through '29 - $TSM $ASML ➤ Says ASML’s latest machines are too expensive to adopt ➤ Deputy Co-COO Kevin Zhang shared comments with reporters ➤ TSMC plans to delay deployment of newest ASML tools until 2029

DigiTimes published a report on TSMC's packaging this morning, and there's a lot of alpha in it. To summarize: 1. TSMC is significantly expanding SoIC capacity in 2027 (from 10K wafers/month to 50K wafers/month), with NVIDIA locking up most of this SoIC capacity. Only 10% will be allocated to CPO. -> Positive for BESI. More hybrid bonding tool orders should follow. 2. CoPoS is delayed… first product shipment expected in Q4 2030. CoWoS's lifespan is now expected to be longer than previously anticipated. CoPoS is just too difficult to push through. According to DigiTimes, with large orders pouring in not only from NVIDIA and AMD but also from ASIC customers, TSMC's CoWoS capacity for the next two years is already fully booked. CoPoS was originally expected to take the baton with mass production in 2028, but per the latest schedule: Q3 2026: R&D equipment move-in begins. R&D line buildout takes about 1 year. Q3 2027: Pilot line equipment orders placed. Equipment lead time of about 3 quarters. Q2 2028: Pilot tools moved into the Chiayi P7 fab. Validation and fine-tuning needed for about 1 year afterward. Mid-to-late 2029: Mass production equipment finalized, supply chain orders placed. Lead time of 3 quarters. Q1 2030: Mass production equipment move-in. First packaging product shipment possible 6 months to 1 year later, in Q4 2030. In particular, "uniformity" and "warpage" are reportedly causing significant difficulties in implementing CoPoS. -> Negative for the CoPoS supply chain. TSMC is reportedly even imposing a policy that anyone joining the CoPoS development effort will be barred from selling externally. 3. Lastly, the CoWoP project led by NVIDIA and SPIL (矽品) is reportedly facing a potential suspension. Because of the higher technical difficulty and elevated cost, SPIL and Taiwanese PCB vendors are showing low willingness to participate, and only Chinese PCB vendors are showing intent to continue R&D. -> Those who were pushing CoWoP should be ashamed of themselves. The ones who were pumping mainland Chinese names...

Spent the last few days writing the most comprehensive photonics review possible. The need, the technology, the supply chain, bottlenecks & opportunities, from SiPho to III-V passing by CPOs. SiPho. Wafers - $SOI EDA Simulation - $SNPS Ansys SiPho design - $AVGO $MRVL Foundry etching - $GFS $TSEM $TSM III-V. InP substrate - $AXT Sumitono Epitaxy - $IQE $COHR $LITE $AAOI Visual Photonics Laser Chip Fabrication - $COHR $LITE $AAOI $SIVE CPO. Packaging $FN Testing and validation $AEHR $TER $FOR If there is a name you haven't heard off or a concept you do not understand, this is the write up to read. This is the next large vertical for AI datacenter and a sector which could run for quarters/years as the technology scales. Droping in 12h for subscribers, link's in bio.