Nicolás E. Quintana Ashwell

When Copernicus proposed heliocentrism in 1543, it was actually less accurate than Ptolemy's geocentric model - a system refined over 1,400 years with epicycles precisely tuned to match observed planetary positions. It took another 70 years before Kepler, working from Tycho Brahe's unprecedentedly precise observations, replaced Copernicus’s circles with ellipses - finally making heliocentrism empirically superior. Terence Tao's point is that science needs a high temperature setting. If we only fund and follow what's most state of the art today, we kill the ideas that might need decades of work to surpass some overall plateau.

Annual reminder: if you’ve been accepted to multiple graduate programs and are still deciding, please let the ones you’re definitely not going to know as soon as possible! -Someone who got into his PhD off the waitlist the day after the deadline

Key issue to bear in mind as you watch today's political response to the Supreme Court tariff decision: The Court didn't say that the US can't issue tariffs, simply that the President has to convince (the Republican-controlled) Congress first. If tariffs are a great idea, that should be an easy argument to win. (Spoiler: They're not.)

One of the most pressing issue facing agriculture in the US is the rapid and continued depletion of ground water in our most important food producing regions. But even more concerning is the degradation of farmland's ability to capture, store and cycle rainwater. The Ogallala Aquifer supports 30% of US irrigation and has lost 286 million acre-feet, or 93.2 trillion gallons, since agricultural development. Portions of Kansas and Texas are on pace for complete depletion in 20-50 years. Natural recharge occurs at less than one inch annually and full replenishment would take 6,000 years. California's Central Valley, producing 25% of national food supply, pumps groundwater 5x faster than its rate of recharge. The land has subsided up to 28 feet, permanently destroying aquifer storage capacity. As alarming as this may be, the long-term – and in some cases permanent – damage caused to aquifers pales in comparison to the disruption of the small water cycle. The small water cycle depends on vegetation recycling moisture through evapotranspiration, which generates over 50% of precipitation in most river basins. This "green water" accounts for 4-5x more agricultural water use than the "blue water" drawn from aquifers and rivers. When soil is disturbed and left bare, this pump fails. Further disrupting this cycle, bare agricultural soil reaches surface temperatures up to 24°C higher than vegetated areas, creating heat islands that repel rainfall while eliminating evaporative cooling entirely. US agricultural soils have lost 50% of original organic matter over that last century. Each 1% increase in organic matter allows soil to hold 20,000 additional gallons of water per acre. The widespread loss of 3-4 percentage points of organic matter means farmland now stores tens of thousands fewer gallons per acre than it once did, reducing natural drought resilience and increasing runoff. Conventional agriculture compounds this by collapsing soil aggregates through excessive tillage, leaving fields bare, applying synthetic fertilizers that accelerate organic matter decomposition, disrupting soil microbiology with pesticide applications and compacting soil with heavy machinery. The good news is, unlike aquifer depletion, the small water cycle can be repaired rapidly and in ways that offer a cascade of positive benefits to farms. Continuous living roots maintain the pore structure for infiltration. Growing roots open channels, decaying roots leave voids, and root exudates feed aggregate-building microorganisms. A functional and diverse soil microbiome produces biological glues that create water-stable aggregates. These networks increase hydraulic conductivity while enhancing water storage. Permanent soil cover reduces evaporation, prevents raindrop impact from sealing surfaces, and maintains biological activity. Five years of cover cropping can improve infiltration up to 200%. Integrated biological diversity drives the feedback loops between soil carbon, water retention, and climate regulation. Diverse rotations, livestock integration, and perennial crops restore landscape-scale water cycling. Aquifer depletion, in large part, cannot be undone. But restoring the small water cycle offers an immediate opportunity to rebuild and maintain agricultural water security.

Exceptionally impressive study of the marginal effects of public university attendance by the wonderful Jack Mountjoy. Perhaps the most important finding involves the value of college to students admitted on the margin. ...despite the fact that marginally admitted students tend to arrive on campus with substantially weaker academic preparation and end up with below-average degree attainment and earnings relative to their university peers, the analysis in this paper shows that these outcomes are significant improvements over the typical trajectories these marginal students would have experienced had they been rejected instead. Moreover, since the benefits of enrolling marginal students surpass the costs, the results in this paper also suggest that marginally expanding admissions slots at public universities would tend to generate positive net returns, both for the newly admitted students themselves and for the taxpayers subsidizing the investment

As margens operacionais da soja previstas em 2026: Brasil🇧🇷: 24% Argentina 🇦🇷: 8% EUA🇺🇸: 13% As margens operacionais são as sobras da receita do agricultor depois de pagar os custos variáveis de produção, mas antes de considerar itens como depreciação, custos financeiros, impostos ou remuneração do capital e da terra. Agro never stops. O Agro Não Para. Fonte: Rabobank

@Jftamames @lauramnicolae Fíjese que fueron a formar las famosas formulaciones fundamentales con UN fervor fragoroso y febril.

@lauramnicolae Fernández

Spanish words rarely start with the letter f. Even when a word starts with f in all the other Romance languages, it usually starts with a silent h in Spanish. Ex: The verb “to do” is hacer in Spanish, vs. fazer (Port.), faire (Fr.), and fare (It.). Why? lauranicolae.substack.com/p/on-the-econo…

Congratulations to our #MSUAg Gamma Sigma Delta merit award winners! Teaching- Will Davis, associate professor, @MSStateAgEcon; Research- Raju Bheemanahalli, associate research professor, Plant and Soil Sciences; Extension- Elizabeth Canales, associate professor, Ag Econ.

The best southern rust management advice I can ever give you is to implore you to NOT spray corn at dent with a fungicide. We (unbiased entities) do not see a positive ROI with a fungicide made that late regardless of product @MStateCorn #mscrops

After a few sunny days, #corn is wilting. If we check the #soil, it is clear moisture is not short. Accordingly, leaf wilt is a very unreliable indicator of #irrigation needs. More sunshine and aeration are the best cure for this matter. 🌽#mscorn #MSUext #plant25 #mscrops

Galling from the southern root-knot nematode is oftentimes difficult to observe on young soybean plants. Look at the roots of “healthy” plants on the margins of areas where dead plants occur as a result of RKN @MSSOY #mscrops @MSUextPlantLab #Extension @changliunema

Great to have @NCAAR_MSU’ s own @WaterEcon_Delta help kick off this great conference.

JEEM is happy to be a sponsor of Camp Resources XXXI in Asheville, NC. #econtwitter Graduate students and young professionals, be sure to submit your abstracts by May 23. Details here: cenrep.ncsu.edu/events/camp-re…

3/3 For #wheat in 2025, there is also a slight lean toward ARC-CO, though PLC will again likely pay more at low prices. From today's 'ARC/PLC Choice' webinar

This system has been tried by some farmers in the Delta (focused on yields) and there's a trial at @NCAAR_MSU looking into this (focused on profitability)+other alternatives being evaluated. Key is economic moisture level of corn at harvest+plant soybean behind combine.

1/ Today's @FarmPolicy News Summary covers how "President Trump said he would speak Monday morning with the leaders of #Canada and #Mexico after imposing a fresh round of #tariffs on #imports from those countries." farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2025/02/trade-…

UPDATE 2: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says earlier reporting about March 1 #tariff date is inaccurate and she confirms that "the president will be implementing tomorrow 25% tariffs on Mexico, 25% tariffs on Canada and a 10% tariff on China":

🚨 Last chance to sign up for the Master Irrigator training! 🌱 Register now & complete online modules by Jan. 31. Don’t miss this opportunity to level up your irrigation skills! 💧💡⬇️ reg.extension.msstate.edu/reg/event_page…

@LATAM_CO Yes we made the nearly hour long trip to the airport and the counter folks helped us. Glad to know this is a legit account.

@WaterEcon_Delta Nicolás, we noted that now both are confirmed on the flights at 11:10 a.m and arriving at 6:34 p.m. Regarding the seats, we can use the paid seat as credit for the new seats and you pay the difference. Also, we can refund of this amount. Looking forward for your decision via DM

@LATAM_BRA changed flight dates without notice, can't access customer service/support listed in their "contact with us" section, @LATAMAirlines , @LATAMAirlinesUS