Water flow
3 posts
嫌高的人，趁着这轮回调，再一次给了大家机会，能不能抓住就看你们自己了。
比特洞见@BitInsighter
大A在当下二季度阶段，我目前持有和看好的方向，有些收益很大了，但我认为很多还未被充分价值发现的，仅代表个人观点。 国内高端封测方向：通富 散热方向：液冷的英维克,东阳光，Tim导热材料的中石 PCB方向：胜宏 OCS方向：光迅 CPU:海光，澜起，龙芯 MLCC:三环，洁美，国瓷 逆变器储能:锦浪，德业 低估的存储:国科微，君正 国产替代:华海诚科，铂科新材 电力:中恒，四方 光伏胶膜:福斯特 IBF载板:兴森，深南 其中被极度低估的是，封装和IBF载板，其次是散热和逆变器.可以预判的是接下来CPU会大面积承接很多存储流出的资金，国产华为昇腾替代方向会是很好的机会，今天就说这么多吧。
中文
@chamath Agree he may do "talks". But not many agreements are going to be reached. Trump has been elected for the singular purpose of ending the CCP regime. All going according to plan. Prepare for stagflation. Shipping crisis due to conficts. Hit on CHN exports.
x.com/aravind/status…
Aravind@aravind
@ShivAroor As I predicted. I also predicted Trump will be deep state choice president in 2024 last year. And once he comes a bad trade war and economic recession will be brought to severely weaken China and force it go into conflict. Read below: x.com/aravind/status…
English
My current best view:
Trump lets tariff reactions play out for a few weeks. Sees the trend of capitulations and is emboldened to keep going. He fields offers from everyone. Negotiates with no one.
Then brings everyone to MaL in a month or two and puts an offer on the table: Bretton Woods 2.0. It’s simpler and more effective to have one Grand Bargain than negotiate piecemeal with 80 countries+.
I am focused on figuring out what terms matter most for the MaL Accords. I have a few in mind which are obvious and would kingmake the US.
I don’t buy this whole “end of US hegemony”. This is the moment to go for the jugular and establish world order around America.
English
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