Weekly DCA Investor
894 posts

Weekly DCA Investor
@WeeklyDCAInvest
Dad | Electrician⚡️Documenting my long-term investing journey. Weekly DCA | Transparent portfolio updates Core investing + stock swing trades | NFA


OK, I’ll answer the questions about $Tao Will anything change? No Every project isn’t just based on technology, but also on the community and whales Will I keep my position? Yes, if it goes to zero, it doesn’t matter! But I doubt it




$MPWR earnings tomorrow after the close will be critical for power sector specific insight for $AOSL Notable things: -800V timeline: Last earnings call they noted that 800V revenue will happen in 2nd half of 2027 vs. when $TXN said on the call that they said that in general its ramping and will see revenue inflection start in the 2nd half of the year. We shall see -The Margin picture will be asked heavily on the earnings call. If they prove to analysts this is continued pricing power/ a shift to higher for longer margins, it will tell all other peers the same way -Is this a true surge in demand or double ordering? All eyes on $MPWR earnings tomorrow after the bell for insights into $ON $NVTS and $AOSL





$MX Investors now have fresh product details to stack up against the company’s earlier guidance. Magnachip rolled out two new 8th-generation 12V low-voltage MOSFETs this week—these are compact current-control switches used in smartphone battery-protection circuits. According to the company, one of these products has already hit mass production and is shipping out to a leading global smartphone manufacturer, though Magnachip kept the name under wrap #google_vignette" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">ts2.tech/en/magnachip-s…




Glass Substrates: No longer a theory, but the next AI bottleneck. 💎 The market is finally waking up to what I flagged weeks ago: traditional substrates have hit a physical wall. The 1.6T era belongs to glass, and SCHMID Group ($SHMD) is the gatekeeper of this transition. Why $SHMD is a Unique Play: ✅ InfinityLine H+: The world’s only platform capable of handling 700x700mm panels. Massive scale = drastically lower unit costs for next-gen AI clusters. ✅ Vertical & Touchless: Their vertical etching eliminates "puddling" defects, while non-contact transport solves the breakage issues plaguing glass. This is the "secret sauce" for yields at Intel and TSMC-grade fabs. ✅ Intel & Tier-1 Validation: As Intel aggressively pushes to lead the industry in glass substrate adoption by 2026-2030, SCHMID’s vertical processing and InfinityLine H+ have moved from "evaluation" to "deployment." Recent U.S. deliveries into the Defense/Aerospace sectors confirm their tech is the gold standard for high-reliability, mission-critical hardware. ⬇️The Financial Turnaround The debt structure used to be an anchor, but we are seeing a fundamental shift: Deleveraging: A massive debt-to-equity swap has cleaned up the balance sheet. Order Backlog: 2026 guidance shows revenue surging past €100M, backed by a record backlog. Pivot: They’ve successfully transitioned from legacy tech to high-margin AI infrastructure. ➡️The Investor’s Verdict: $SHMD has crossed the "valuation chasm." We are looking at a company with a market cap of ~$400M–$450M, holding a backlog that nearly matches its entire value. While the financial structure still requires a watchful eye, the risk-to-reward ratio is becoming one of the most asymmetric bets in the semiconductor space. 👉Conclusion: If you believe in the Glass Substrate thesis, SCHMID isn't just an option - it’s the mechanical necessity for the entire 1.6T ecosystem. Is it finally time to go all-in on the Glass Substrate revolution? What do you think?





The German Precision at the Heart of 1.6T Connectivity As the global semiconductor industry pivots from 800G to the era of 1.6T and 3.2T bandwidth, the spotlight has been firmly fixed on Asian giants like Ibiden (4062.JP) and Samsung. In my previous analysis, I highlighted why Ibiden’s mastery of ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) makes them the indispensable "integrator" of the upcoming glass-core substrates. However, a critical question remains: Who builds the machines that make this integration possible? The answer lies not in Tokyo or Seoul, but in Lower Saxony, Germany. While the world watches the "Glass-Core" race, a German engineering powerhouse, LPKF Laser & Electronics $LPK, has quietly become the gatekeeper of this entire technological shift. 1⃣ The Hybrid Reality: Why ABF Isn't Dying (Yet) There is a common misconception that Glass Substrates will instantly replace PCB laminates. In reality, we are entering the era of the Hybrid Glass-Core Substrate. The Role of Ibiden: As the undisputed leader in high-end IC substrates (controlling ~40-50% of the premium market), Ibiden is not being replaced. Instead, they are becoming the Master Integrator. The "Sandwich" Structure: The 1.6T chip will sit on a Glass Core (for signal speed) which is then "cladded" with ABF layers for routing and mounted onto a standard PCB. The Challenge: Integrating glass with organic films is a nightmare of thermal expansion. This is where the mechanical precision of the tooling becomes the trillion-dollar variable. 2⃣LPKF Laser & Electronics: The "ASML" of Glass? If you want to build a 1.6T chip, you need TGV (Through-Glass Vias). You need to drill tens of thousands of holes in a sheet of glass thinner than a human hair without causing a single micro-crack. While ASML owns the photolithography stage, LPKF is positioning itself to own the Glass Structuring stage via their proprietary LIDE (Laser Induced Deep Etching) technology. Why LIDE is the "Golden Ticket": Traditional lasers (CO2 or UV) use heat to "blast" through glass, creating stress zones and micro-fractures. At 1.6T densities, these fractures lead to catastrophic failure during thermal cycling. Step 1 (Modification): LPKF’s ultra-fast laser changes the molecular structure of the glass at specific points without generating heat. Step 2 (Etching): A chemical bath removes only the modified glass.The Result: Perfectly smooth vias with Zero Micro-Cracks.Numerical Anchor: The 1.6T Efficiency Signal Loss: Glass reduces insertion loss by over 40% compared to organic cores at 224G SerDes speeds. Via Density: LIDE allows for a pitch (distance between holes) of less than 50 $\mu m$, enabling the massive I/O counts required for 3.2T switching. ➡️The $ONTO x $LPKF Synergy: Solving the Yield Crisis⬅️ The most significant hurdle for glass substrates at 1.6T isn't just making the holes, it’s proving they are perfect before moving to the next expensive production step. The 2025 partnership between LPKF and Onto Innovation addresses this "Yield Gap" by integrating Onto’s Firefly® G3 inspection system into the LIDE workflow. While LPKF’s Vitrion machines drill at speeds of up to 10,000 vias per second, Onto’s metrology provides the "eyes," utilizing sub-surface inspection to detect microscopic fractures that traditional cameras miss. By joining Onto's PACE (Packaging Applications Center of Excellence), LPKF has transformed from a niche tool manufacturer into a validated industrial partner. For integrators like Ibiden, this alliance is the green light for mass production: it ensures that every glass panel is structurally sound, thermally stable, and ready to handle the extreme signal densities of the 3.2T era. 4⃣ The 3.2T Horizon: Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) As we look toward 3.2T, the copper wire itself becomes the bottleneck. We need to bring fiber optics directly to the chip. Glass is the only material that can act as both a structural substrate and an optical waveguide. LPKF’s LIDE process is currently being tested to create "optical pathways" inside the glass core. CTE Alignment: Glass has a Coefficient of Thermal Expansion (CTE) of ~3-8 ppm/K, closely matching Silicon (2.6 ppm/K). Organic substrates sit at a staggering 17 ppm/K. The Verdict: At 3.2T, if you don't use glass, your chip will literally "tear itself apart" from the heat-induced expansion mismatch. 5⃣ Risk Assessment: The Competitive Moat Is LPKF untouchable? Not quite. The Japanese Giants: Companies like Lasertec and Disco Corp have deep pockets and existing relationships with TSMC. The Integrator's Power: While LPKF has the best "drill," Ibiden and Samsung Electro-Mechanics hold the keys to mass assembly. If they find a way to bypass LIDE (unlikely but possible), the landscape shifts. Conclusion: The transition to 1.6T and 3.2T is a "Materials + Machines" play. Ibiden provides the scale and the organic integration, but LPKF provides the fundamental breakthrough that makes glass viable for high-volume manufacturing. For investors and technologists, the indicator of success isn't just the chip's performance—it's the yield rate of the TGV process. If LPKF’s LIDE becomes the industry standard, they will sit at a critical chokepoint in the AI hardware supply chain. #LIDE #GlassSubstrate #LPKF #ONTO #Ibiden #TGV #Semiconductors #FutureTech #AdvancedPackaging #EngineeringExcellence #AIInfrastructure










