Dave_with_cat

Had a great podcast chat with @Brad_Setser covering the big macro topics of the day. macrohive.com/hive-podcasts/…

I think #ChatGPT is amazing. Feels like the future has finally arrived. I've been playing around with it and here are 11 cool things 🧵 you can do with it:

There are now officially 8 billion people in the world and you still can’t find one to be your girlfriend

Here’s my Friday list of likes:

@bilalhafeez123 One of the most sensible write-ups on the topic I've seen anywhere

News around the #FTX collapse has been dizzying. I've put together my key 5 lessons learned so far..as the story develops. Let me know what you're think of it all. My thoughts below 👇#crypto #DeFi macrohive.com/hive-exclusive…

My take on @elonmusk /Twitter on @CNBCJulianna. Musk wants more free speech, better product development (eg edit function), and less crypto spam. At a higher level, this also continues the trend of the ultra-rich acquiring stakes in media (eg Bezos/WaPo) youtube.com/watch?v=dhjhx4…

@jnordvig So you don’t think we’ll see a recession by next year? Similar view to the consensus of economists. I’d side with the yield curve rather than consensus.

If the yield curve inversion is signaling an imminent recession, how come forward rates (2-year rates, 2-years ahead) are exploding higher?

You guys listen to any spectacular do-not-miss podcast episodes this week? Give them a shout out with a link!

@BillAckman So you say you think WW3 has started but you haven’t sold your business and moved to NZ. Sounds like you’re saying one thing and doing another.

In January 2020, I had nightmares about the potential for a pandemic, but everyone seemed to think I was crazy. I am having similar nightmares now.  WWIII has likely started already, but we have been slow to recognize it.  Putin has invaded Ukraine and it is not going well

@APompliano Well it etches transaction history into eternity for all to see. Not the same as truth. Bitcoin doesn’t tell me whether a piece of news is true or false or whether a scientific theory is correct.

Bitcoin etches truth into eternity and prevents anyone from rewriting history.

@RaoulGMI So you think crypto will go up but not tech stocks. Hmmm. This smells like your call to go all-in on crypto late last year just before a 50% collapse.

The right trades here remain gold and crypto (no one’s liability), bonds and dollars. One sniff of a change in CB’s use of balance sheet and crypto explodes again but patience required. The entire set up is very similar to March 2020 for crypto. Let’s see if it makes a new low

The massive rise in food and energy prices have caused an enormous tightening of financial conditions, along with the liquidity issues of de-platforming Russia. The 2/10’s swaps curve is at 15bps and will hit zero soon, showing how tight conditions really are. 1/

@RobinWigg Goes to show @bcaresearch is more about clickbait than proper research.

Amazing note from BCA: "The risk of Armageddon has risen dramatically. Stay bullish on stocks over a 12-month horizon."

@darioperkins He’s more like a columnist for @zerohedge now!

Zoltan is writing notes faster than I can explain what they mean to the readers we share 😆

@bilalhafeez123 @Macro_Hive Great thread. That's why I like your work so much

The world changed this week, but what does it mean for markets and the global economy. Here's what @Macro_Hive taught me each day of this week:

@bilalhafeez123 @SamRamani2 @tashecon What is Putin's end-game here? What's his way out?

I'm lucky to have @SamRamani2 and now also EM guru Tim Ash @tashecon on our webinar in a few hours. Let me know what questions I should ask!

On Friday USD/RUB was trading at 83. Where do you think it will open on Monday?

@bilalhafeez123 This is the clearest and most unbiased explanation I’ve seen so far. Thanks!

Here are 5 thoughts on the Russia/Ukraine conflict (market and econ views rather than moral/political views which are more clear):

More investment mistakes will be made in the next 24 hours than all the rest of the year combined.

@bilalhafeez123 Wise words.

Sometimes cash is king. Gives you firepower to buy distressed assets when the time comes.