TIPOE

That kid officially adopted his lifetime protector

Noticing

@imanobo02670922 @CANoilandgas I'm in that boat .Eric made some good points as to why it's close to fully valued. It can still be a phenomenal company while better value can be found elsewhere

@CANoilandgas I sold it 2 days ago. The yield is too low. A 10yr UST is paying 4.4%+, why buy this at ~4.6 % when there are risks abound? I made a boat load here though. It's my second time with this one, but when yield drops like this, that's my signal to get out. Thank you $pey.to. 😘

LOL Eric just did $PEY.TO dirty lol, yikes

@greybeard_swede @BeegJj They don't hype it but I think it's a beauty. It might the last of the bigger projects.Modular 5 to 10k b/d seems to be a sweet spot as smaller companies can enter that market.

@BeegJj #30 Nuttall always skips $IPCO.TO... Lundin-backed, aggressive buybacks, Blackrod Phase 1 (30,000 bopd plateau, approved up to 80,000 bopd) with first oil Q3 2026. The compounder he won't mention. 😴

#1 Eric Nuttall, Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners was on Marketcall - the real supply loss is yet to be felt - the worst energy crisis in our lifetime - staggering numbers - the complacency in the oil market is astounding - Mid-East prod ⬇️ 11M bpd

@trevor_rose_ @rockcreekfreak Sounds like a great idea for a podcast..!

@rockcreekfreak The red bird flies 👀

The Cardinal is taking flight... February Reford oil production edges above January by 81 bbl/d $CJ

@rockcreekfreak Isn't IPO in there as well?

Anyone have any predictions?

@trend_bullish Great analysis!Thanks.I do remember a few months back it was noted the exponential difference of $60 WTI to $70 WTI with the differential of $12.5 . $85 WTI average for the year,I might have start boat 🛍

$CJ.TO **The target price for $CJ (Cardinal Energy) by the end of 2026 could reasonably be in the range of **13–15 CAD** (or slightly higher in the event of accelerated growth) if the WTI barrel remains sustainably around **85 USD**.** Here’s why, based on Cardinal’s public data (2026 budget, oil price sensitivity, and Reford production): ### 1. Very conservative 2026 budget (base case at 60 USD WTI) - Average production: **25,000–25,500 boe/d** (+15% vs 2025 thanks to Reford 1 running at full capacity all year). - Adjusted Funds Flow (AFF): **208 M$** at 60 USD WTI. - Capex: only **75 M$** (very prudent, almost entirely maintenance on conventional assets). - Net debt stable, dividend maintained at 0.06 $/month. Reford 1 is already performing strongly: February 2026 at **6,772 bbl/d** (as mentioned in the post you linked), above the nominal capacity of 6,000 bbl/d. ### 2. Sensitivity to oil price According to Cardinal’s recent presentations (November 2025, “Reford” case), AFF increases by approximately **11 M$ per +1 USD in WTI** (assuming constant production and differentials). At **85 USD WTI** (+25 USD vs the budget assumption): - Additional AFF ≈ **+275 M$** - Total AFF 2026 ≈ **483 M$** (roughly **2.8 $/share** diluted on ~173 million shares). That’s more than double the budget scenario. At this level, Cardinal would generate massive free cash flow after capex and dividends, allowing it to: - significantly reduce net debt (currently ~250–280 M$), - maintain or increase the dividend (yield already ~7–8% at 11 $), - or accelerate development of Reford 2 (already sanctioned, +4,000–6,500 bbl/d additional starting in 2027). ### 3. Current valuation vs 85 USD scenario - Current price: ~**11.00–11.10 CAD** (market cap ≈ 1.92 B$). - Analyst 12-month targets: average 10.50–10.67 $ (high end 11–12 $). These targets likely incorporate a lower oil price assumption closer to the strip/consultants (~60 $ in 2026 in the reserves report). - At a sustained 85 $, the market would logically apply a similar or slightly higher multiple than today (roughly 4–6× AFF depending on assumptions). → On 483 M$ AFF, this implies a potential market cap of **2.2–2.9 B$** → **share price 13–17 $**. A realistic and prudent range by end-2026 is therefore **13–15 $**, taking into account: - visible growth already underway (Reford + potential Reford 2), - Cardinal’s financial discipline (no unnecessary over-spending), - the fact that the Canadian small/mid-cap oil producer sector remains cautious on multiples. ### Quick summary table | WTI Scenario | Estimated 2026 AFF | Indicative target price end-2026 | |--------------------|--------------------|----------------------------------| | Budget (60 $) | ~208 M$ | ~9–10 $ (conservative analyst scenario) | | **85 $ (your hypothesis)** | **~483 M$** | **13–15 $+** | | >90 $ + acceleration | >500 M$ | 15–18 $ possible | If WTI really stays at 85 $ all year, the “Cardinal” (as @rockcreekfreak says) will continue to take flight thanks to Reford. The main risks remain the WCS differential and the CAD exchange rate, but at this price level the thermal margins are excellent (SOR <2.5). Would you like me to expand on the Reford 2 scenario or compare it with other peers (Tamarack, etc.)?

Oh no!!!! Whatever will the elbowzos crowd bitch about now!?! 🤣🤣🤣

@ShaleTier7 What are your thoughts on PRQ?Do you think it's recent tuck in was worth it?

Very slow to start this morning, if anyone wants any questions answered on any Western Canadian plays comment below and I'll share the recent well results and some thoughts and maps.

@trevor_rose_ What are the near term plans on East Basin ? Can't wait to see the podcast.Keep bringing the relevant companies on!

Any questions for $IPO CEO Doug Bartole on the next podcast?

@sizov_andre Yes,but we won't see long lines at gas stations nor stations out of gas.With these prices CDA could rail oil to Gulf coast for export.TMX could squeeze a few more barrels thru as well

@Zecco9999 Well it’s still a part of global energy trade, as least for now

Hasn’t fully spread to the West yet

@JamieHeard5 Does Qatar get smart and build capacity on WestCoast of Canada 🇨🇦?Would they buy a piece of LNG phase 2?Would they JV on PTP and get the old Bish Cove project restarted?

The Qatar strike immediately repriced 27/28 LNG prices. We saw some partial credit for that in LNG price exposed equities. It also immediately repriced the value of natural gas resource in nations with low geopolitical risk (Canada / US). We haven’t seen that valued at all in the equities yet. Do we have to wait to see resource change hands? Or will an onslaught of project FIDs do the trick.

WHOLESOME

@KiethMavin @Defence_Index Mixed fleet.Gripens suited better to Arctic,greater value.Stick with the 30 F-35's on firm order as they are the premium stand off fighter. Save some money with the Gripens and add some companion drones to the package.BC and NB aerospace would get some work too hopefully

@Defence_Index The Gripen is much better suited for Canada, with less maintenance, way lower operating costs, a lot better suited for various runways. Built in Canada creating 10.000 jobs, these are a just a few of the advantages.

🇨🇦🇸🇪 BREAKING: Canada in Talks to Build Gripen Fighter Jets. Saab is negotiating with Canada and Bombardier to locally produce JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets under license, a move that could create up to 10,000 jobs and significantly boost Canada’s aerospace sector. Source: Reuters

@trend_bullish Everyone talks their book but hopefully he has insight on a broader outlook.We already know about CVE,TOU,ARX,PEY.I remember when he was back at Sprott he would go further down the food chain.ATH and MEG were peewee at one time too.🤑

Don’t miss Eric Nutall on BNN, Thursday, March. 26. Still lot of upside in many energy stocks (50% to 90% 🛢️📈 #COM

Not saying it should be true... but it's true a lot 😂

Funny because that's what Pierre suggested

🔥

🚨 Japan to send help to open Strait of Hormuz