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@GadSaad @grok what’s it about

#2 across all new releases in Canada.

大师投资者播客：Dan Niles 专访 建议 “目前应提高现金仓位，保持高度警惕” 主持人： Wilfrid Frost 嘉宾： Dan Niles（Niles Investment Management 创始人兼投资组合经理） 主持人： 你认为未来三到五年，哪些超级巨头（Mega Caps）最具优势？ Dan Niles： 显然是 Google（Alphabet）。他们拥有完整的技术栈，还有海量现金流支持。除非出现重大变化，否则他们将继续是赢家。 半导体板块： 短期内，半导体股票处于 2000 年或 1995 年以来最超买的状态，之后曾出现过惨烈回调。但从中长期看，Intel 刚刚回到 2000 年的股价水平，目前仍被低估。 宏观矛盾： 股市创历史新高，但今年油价已上涨约 60%，10 年期和 30 年期美债收益率也创年内新高-这三者中肯定有一个是错的。 主持人： 现在是否应该比平时持有更高的现金仓位？ Dan Niles： 百分之百应该。 主要内容详解 1. 历史对比：1997–1998 年 vs 现在 Dan Niles 将当前 AI 基础设施建设（ChatGPT 2022 年底发布，现进入第 3-4 年）与 1997–1998 年互联网基础设施建设阶段相比。 1997 年：标普年内最大跌幅 11%，全年仍上涨 31% 1998 年：标普年内最大跌幅 19%，全年仍上涨 27% 尽管有泰国货币危机、俄罗斯债务违约、LTCM 倒闭等冲击，但底层科技建设浪潮推动市场走高。他认为当前 AI（尤其是 Agentic AI）也处于类似阶段。 2. Agentic AI（智能体 AI）——最大催化剂 从“聊天式 AI”（问答）转向 Agentic AI（多步骤自主执行）：例如让 AI 去 BBC、彭博、CNBC 抓取数据，再整理成 Excel。 需要 10–100 倍 的 token 生成量。 1 月 30 日前后，token 增长从此前两个月的 +20% 暴增至 +120% 以上，且仍在加速。 这需要强大的“编排引擎”（orchestration），CPU 更具优势。 GPU:CPU 比例将从原来的约 8:1 降至接近 1:1。 受益标的： Intel：被严重低估，有望获得 Nvidia、Apple、Tesla 等大客户代工订单（美国本土安全供应链）。 AMD 同样受益。 Nvidia：短期仍强，但中长期面临边际压力。 3. 七巨头（Mag7）财报亮点 Google：最亮眼。Google Cloud 增速从 48% 加速至 63%。拥有完整栈（Gemini 大模型、自研芯片、Pixel 手机 + Android 生态、广告现金流）。 AWS：24% → 28% Microsoft Azure：38% → 39%（相对落后） Apple：新硬件背景 CEO 有望带来创新；AI Siri + 可折叠 iPhone 将驱动升级周期。 Meta：最大隐忧-用户数量首次环比下降，无公有云，ASIC 芯片落后。 4. 主要风险 油价：若霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，油价维持高位，极可能引发衰退（过去 12 次衰退中 10 次前有油价大幅上涨）。 2026 年展望：预计 Mag7/AI 相关股票可能出现 30–50% 回调（Agentic AI 基数效应 + 增长放缓）。 OpenAI 现金消耗大、消费者导向；Anthropic 企业导向，收入已大幅领先。 即将到来的 OpenAI、SpaceX、Anthropic 等万亿美元级 IPO 将导致资金从现有股票流出。 最近财报中约 34% 的利润增长来自“其他收入”（非核心经营现金流）。 5. 投资建议 目前应提高现金仓位，保持高度警惕。 保持灵活（Be Nimble）：强烈信念，但松散持有。 持续观察：油价、美债收益率（尤其是 2 年期、10 年期、30 年期） 以及市场反应。 长期看好 量子计算，但认为落地时间比市场预期更长。 Dan Niles 最终忠告：市场可以长时间保持非理性（宽松货币 + AI 双驱动），但要记住：强信念，松持有。不要在上涨中过于贪婪。

@coinfessions aint' you start with 0? so you are 150k up

Looking for advice from people who have gone through these types of losses

@octopusycc 难道美股不就是内幕最大的吗

美股同样有巨大内幕 今天上午，一条大鱼买入了价值220万美元的$INTC短期看涨期权。 今天下午，《华尔街日报》发布了苹果与英特尔合作的消息。 股价随即飙升，该大鱼的期权获利+115%。仅仅几个小时内，这条大鱼已盈利超过250万美元。

@Sea_Bitcoin haha 好有意思

好久不喝瑞幸，刚点了一杯橙 C 美式，在小程序里发现，他们把下单、制作、取餐三个步骤都体现在区块链了。 不知道这个上链的意义是啥？

we are so cooked 😭 these guys let Claude run wild on Wall St. Look at this insider trades scanner it built in 4 mins that: > reads every SEC filing where execs buy their own stock > flags clusters where multiple execs buy at once > emails me the top 3 trades every morning before the open

road to (hopefully) $30m | month 1 recap last cycle i bought $sol at $20 and sold at $250. retired off that trade. ngl, tough act to follow. back with $5m for round 2. first month end recap. plenty of room for me to embarrass myself from here. portfolio: $5.9m. up $580k (+10.8%) since i started this account. april was an active month. here's what happened. what i did: · finished deploying cash into $zec across two big buys, biggest at the start of april · sold $pump on apr 1 for a ~17% loss (~$33k). thesis didn't hold and i didn't want to nurse it · exited $near in two chunks. trimmed ~40% mid april, sold the rest on apr 28. apparently i needed two tries to make up my mind · net: out of pump and near, into zec and $hype why i cleaned house: i think this cycle is going to be more concentrated than people expect. less retail than 2021. more competition for gambling money. stocks (ai supply chain, quantum, foreign), sports betting, prediction markets. money probably flows to a few clear narrative winners, not a broad altseason. i'd rather hold two bags i fully believe in than spread thin across positions i'm second guessing. the new portfolio: deployed ~$3.1m into $zec (60%) and ~$2.1m into $hype (40%). that's the conviction split. as of today: zec at $3.57m (+$511k since i bought), hype at $2.17m (+$69k), cash $200k. 2 asset barbell. one sentence thesis on each: $hype: profitable casino, real revenue, buys back its token, founder is the anti scammer in an industry full of scammers. $zec: private money in a surveillance era, quantum resistant, ~$6b market cap, regulatory cloud cleared. $near needed three sentences and a chart and some squinting to explain the thesis. that's the difference and why i cut it. why zec gets the slight lean: lower market cap, no unlock overhang, no tradfi comp anchoring upside. hype has gravity from coinbase / robinhood multiples. zec's ceiling is whatever the market decides privacy is worth in a surveillance moment. that's where parabolic moves live. not a strong differential. just enough to earn 60/40 instead of 50/50. what i didn't do: didn't touch hype through the chop. didn't try to time the rotation from near to zec/hype. didn't sell near on a green day to feel better about it. could've stayed retired. but i love the game, and every dollar i compound now sets my kids up for whatever's next. goal: $5m → $30m. month one done. portfolio screenshot below. every move on the books, nothing hidden. solana story if you missed it: x.com/ThePumponomics… rd 2 game plan with original bid levels: x.com/ThePumponomics…

And just like that… everybody stopped talking about the Epstein Files.

@BrentAWilliams2 Nope

One of my daughter's biggest concerns right now is "will there be any jobs left by the time I get done with college", and it seems like no one has a cogent answer.

@kitvolta sounds good

Next AI Psychosis Summit will be held in Newark New Jersey ❤️

这是我今年见过最牛的「美股新股神」。 24岁的德国人，被OpenAI开除， 转头开基金，2亿变50+亿。 -先说这个哥们。Leopold Aschenbrenner。 我去年半夜跟朋友喝酒， 有个马来人按头推荐让我去看一篇 《Situational Awareness》， 说AI正在朝这篇写的方向发展。 后来我才知道， 这文章当时在硅谷VC圈里炸锅， 川普的女儿伊万卡也转了。 就是Leopold Aschenbrenner离职后写的。 -去年4月，这哥们据说因为泄密被OpenAI开除。 出来之后没多久，直接开了个对冲基金， 基金名字就叫那篇文章， Situational Awareness Fund。 LP是Stripe两兄弟和前GitHub CEO Nat Friedman。 去年Q4披露持仓2.5亿，今年再披露直接就55亿。 一年涨了20多倍。 -我们再来看他持仓。 第一仓 Bloom Energy。给数据中心卖燃料电池发电的。去年4月16块一股，今天279块。一年17倍。 我去年也盲跟着买了， 买了到今天一直没动，赚了5倍左右。 第二仓 CoreWeave看涨期权， AI算力卖家，英伟达亲儿子，IPO半年股票翻了3倍多。 第三仓 Intel看涨期权。 去年所有人都说Intel完了的时候他进去重仓买CALL，结果Intel一年涨356%。 所以晚晚我现在有个新思路： 紧跟OpenAI离职人群。 看他们在做什么，基本上就能看到AI投资和下一个大方向的路标。

@Tekeee nope

Having $200K in your bank account reduces anxiety by 92%

@GaltMD @uncledoomer probably like 2- 3 million

@uncledoomer How does this guy plan to retire for the next 60 years on like 500k

32 year old ME with only $450k net worth, dude, its over. youre not escaping the permanent underclass.

The Trump family has made $4 billion off the presidency. Crypto: $3.02B Persian Gulf deals: $425.8M Qatari jet: $150M Legal fees/merch: $127.7M Mar-a-Lago: $125M Corporate deals: $91M Hanoi hotel: $40M Truth Social: $25M Don Jr: $19.6M Unprecedented kleptocracy.

@JackZhaiTGG 主要还是保险很烦

If Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX didn't liquidate its investments following its collapse, it would still hold: • Solana: $5.1 billion (27x) • SpaceX: $15 billion (75x) • Cursor: $3 billion (15,000x) • Robinhood: $4.9 billion (8x) • Anthropic: $82.3 billion (165x) • Genesis Digital: $3.5 billion (3x) Estimated Portfolio Value: $114,000,000,000

@_FORAB ahhahahahaa

这届香港大会的微商，实在是太牛批了。 我这几天视频号，已经刷屏。

Capital is moving. Infrastructure is forming. #RWA is no longer early — it’s accelerating. From equities to real-world assets, everything is being priced on-chain. #ECO is built for this shift. Position yourself where liquidity is going. #RWA #Tokenization #ECO #Web3 #BiFinance

@failcatcat 是不是有什么大病

这么说吧，现在的美国如果你毕业薪资<=税前20w，除了academia，没有任何留在美国的理由

Backpack is hiring! Here’s a list of roles currently live on @SuperteamTalent for @Backpack: - Institutional Sales Manager - Business Development - Fiat/Payment Engineer - Product Designer Apply here: talent.superteam.fun/join?scout=Eve… If you need full role details, let me know 🤝