Chris Collar

707 posts

Chris Collar

Chris Collar

@_ChrisCollar

Senior Research Analyst @ Collar Capital | Military / Banking / Crypto background | statements are my own and NFA

Orange County, CA Katılım Kasım 2022
44 Takip Edilen465 Takipçiler
Chris Collar
Chris Collar@_ChrisCollar·
@dunleavy89 11-13% is not far from current direct lending (private credit) rates today. 12-24 months ago folks were underwriting 10-16% paper in the lower-middle market, myself included. A sequel article comparing DeFi to private credit rates would be very interesting.
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Chris Collar
Chris Collar@_ChrisCollar·
One of the most consistently used arguments by investors against allocating to $BTC and $ETH is that there are no traditional methods to determine their value or that they have no intrinsic value. The fact is that there are several fundamental and relative valuation methodologies for estimating the present and future values of these digital assets; like the one seen below from @Sharplink. To learn more about them and how digital assets impact investment portfolios, check out my report co-authored with @dunleavy89. 👉docsend.com/view/5h3fwk2ij…
Chris Collar tweet media
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Chris Collar
Chris Collar@_ChrisCollar·
@CharlesSchwab recently published a brief but interesting note on $BTC and $ETH allocations in traditional investment portfolios. The TLDR is allocations of ~1-5% to each asset are worth considering for most investors. Note:schwab.com/learn/story/ad… If you want a much deeper analysis, then check out my report co-authored with @dunleavy89 which demonstrates 5% allocations to each would have almost quadrupled a moderate portfolio's total return over the last 10 years with marginal incremental risk. Report:docsend.com/view/5h3fwk2ij…
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Chris Collar
Chris Collar@_ChrisCollar·
@dunleavy89 Agreed, the RATS (rate, amortization, term, securitization) and LTV for the down payment loan would need to be quite conservative for underwriters to get comfortable. Those terms likely won't be palatable for the majority of this type of borrower.
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Tom Dunleavy
Tom Dunleavy@dunleavy89·
This is an absolutely TERRIBLE idea, even reading the fine print. So the idea is crypto supports your down payment but not the principal. This still would MATERIALLY change the underwriting for any sane issuer. They underwrite a total dollar amount loaned, the quality of the asset (home) and your ability to pay. This drastically makes 2 of these 3 at a much higher risk profile than almost any type of borrower. Lets take an example. If you put down $200k in BTC on a $1m mortgage, the value BTC drops over 50% going to $70k or $80k (well within the range of possibility) you would have to restructure that loan, the issuing party would have to issue a margin call OR the bank would be taking on a much higher risk of default than the initially underwrote. Ah I default on my downpayment, now I have to fill the gap to keep my house. Wait I cant becuase these loans are for people likely already way overexposed to crypto. Sell my crypto. Sell my house. This amplifies BTC liquidation risk materially.
Tom Dunleavy tweet media
Coinbase 🛡️@coinbase

Get your house and keep your crypto. Crypto-backed mortgages are here - increasing access to homeownership for millions of Americans. Buy a home without converting your portfolio by using BTC or USDC as collateral for your down payment. Offered by Better, powered by Coinbase.

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Chris Collar retweetledi
Tom Dunleavy
Tom Dunleavy@dunleavy89·
1/ Adding 5% BTC and 5% ETH to a 60/40 portfolio returned 435% over the last decade OR ~4x a normal 60/40 portfolio. Following up on our @MessariCrypto research from 2023 @_ChrisCollar and I just published 35 pages of data on why traditional allocators can't ignore crypto anymore. We analyzed everything from asset allocation, to market timing to rebalancing. Key takeaways in this short thread below
Tom Dunleavy tweet media
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Chris Collar
Chris Collar@_ChrisCollar·
@BowTiedBull Prospects try this with us all the time, except our 5Y and 10Y numbers are better. They lean forward in their chairs with wide eyes. *Conduct the close*
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BowTiedBull.eth - Read Pinned or NGMI
BowTiedBull.eth - Read Pinned or NGMI@BowTiedBull·
When you get hit up by them a lot a good troll is to send your last 5 and 10 year annualized returns and say "sure we can talk if you can beat this" Have never gotten a response email
BowTiedKong | Criminal Defense & Family Law Atty@BowTiedKong

@BowTiedBull @BowTiedRanger Wealth management was dying when I was there. It’ll have another 20 ish year run but eventually no one will pay that much to meet quarterly to review their portfolio Grok, here’s my account, generate $20k this year to fix my house

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Chris Collar
Chris Collar@_ChrisCollar·
@robustus I have pondered for many years that digital assets could support the commoditization of force and rise of a modern East India Company
GIF
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Dan
Dan@robustus·
The writing on the wall is that at some point Dario + Sam + Elon + Sergey (and maybe + Ilya) are gonna find themselves banding together to challenge the authority and maybe even viability of major nation states.
Ilya Sutskever@ilyasut

It’s extremely good that Anthropic has not backed down, and it’s siginficant that OpenAI has taken a similar stance. In the future, there will be much more challenging situations of this nature, and it will be critical for the relevant leaders to rise up to the occasion, for fierce competitors to put their differences aside. Good to see that happen today.

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Chris Collar
Chris Collar@_ChrisCollar·
Apparently an ~8x return in under 3 years = “nowhere” these days
George Noble@gnoble79

BITCOIN IS FOR BOOMERS Bitcoin is the Facebook of speculative assets. Think about that for a second. Your kids aren't on Facebook. Neither is anyone under 30. They're on Instagram, TikTok, whatever comes next. Same thing is happening with Bitcoin. The narrative was simple: digital gold. A hedge against fiat currency debasement. Store of value in an uncertain world. So what happened last year? Gold doubled. Silver tripled. The NASDAQ ripped higher. Bitcoin? Went nowhere. If you're rooting for risk assets to rally, Bitcoin should work. But it didn't. If you're rooting for gold to rally, Bitcoin should work. But it didn't. The volatility that made Bitcoin exciting is gone. And when there's no juice, speculators leave. I had a young engineer in one of my Twitter Spaces a few weeks ago. Smart kid. He told me he sold his Bitcoin and bought gold and silver. Then he said he "totally disagreed" with my theory that declining Bitcoin volatility is bearish. I asked him why he sold. "It wasn't moving enough." He literally proved my point without knowing it. Meanwhile, the real action is elsewhere: FanDuel. DraftKings. Zero-DTE options. Prediction markets. Why wait around for a 10% Bitcoin move when you can get instant gratification betting on tonight's game or buying options that expire in 4 hours? The democratization of speculation created better dopamine delivery systems. Bitcoin was the gateway drug. Now there's harder stuff. And the hodlers who've been there since the early days are finally SELLING. Supply is coming out. The diamond hands are becoming paper hands. It's not my job to tell you what to think. But when an asset class trades inversely to its own thesis, I pay attention. When the volatility disappears and speculators find faster games, I pay attention. When the only people left defending it are the ones who bought at higher prices, I pay attention. Bitcoin isn't dead. The internet didn't die after 2000 either. But if you bought Cisco at the peak, you're still underwater 25 years later. The technology can survive... Your portfolio might not.

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Chris Collar retweetledi
Bespoke
Bespoke@bespokeinvest·
If you can hold down your breakfast, here's a look at the largest software stocks in the $IGV ETF. Average distance from 50-DMA: -23.5% Average YTD % chg: -23%. It's February 6th.
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Chris Collar
Chris Collar@_ChrisCollar·
The indiscriminate selling of software stocks is a gift
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Capriole Investments
Capriole Investments@capriole_fund·
Update #68 - 2026 Market Outlook A dictator deposed. Talks of war. Freedom of speech under attack. Can Gold all time highs continue? Is it a Bitcoin bear market? Where to now. Read on: capriole.com/update-68/
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Chris Collar
Chris Collar@_ChrisCollar·
Bottom line, this recently announced reserve maintenance program will have a greater effect on the markets than its 2019 cousin due to there being less macro tailwinds today versus Q4 2019. However, the magnitude of any subsequent intermediate rallies will likely be smaller since the macroeconomic picture in late-2019 was more favorable.
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Chris Collar
Chris Collar@_ChrisCollar·
Today's UNEXPECTED announcement by the Fed to purchase $40B per month of T-bills for the next few months before possibly slowing in Q2 2026 has been on my mind due to the media's and market's speculative enthusiasm towards it.
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Keşfet

@dunleavy89 @Sharplink @CharlesSchwab @MessariCrypto @BowTiedBull @robustus @elonmusk @BarackObama