Rob Toews

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Rob Toews

Rob Toews

@_RobToews

Partner @RadicalVCFund, AI columnist @Forbes. "the machine does not isolate man from the great problems of nature but plunges him more deeply into them."

San Francisco Bay Area, CA Katılım Eylül 2012
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Rob Toews
Rob Toews@_RobToews·
10 (bold) predictions for AI in 2026: 1⃣ Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not. 📈 2⃣ Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak to the public. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments to their research roadmaps as a result. 🤫
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Sundar Pichai
Sundar Pichai@sundarpichai·
With just one year in orbit, the first FireSat satellite has already spotted wildfires invisible to existing satellites. After a successful launch early this morning, 3 more satellites joined the constellation, bringing us one step closer to our ultimate goal of near real-time wildfire updates every 20 minutes. Thanks to @EarthFireAll @MuonSpace @MooreFound @BezosEarthFund for the partnership, & @SpaceX for the ride up!
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Prime Intellect
Prime Intellect@PrimeIntellect·
Announcing our $130M Series A to build the Open Superintelligence Stack Led by Radical Ventures, with NVIDIA, Intel Capital, Dell Capital, and existing investors Train, deploy, and continuously improve your own models using our stack. Own your intelligence.
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Justin Skycak
Justin Skycak@justinskycak·
The greatest breakthrough in the science of learning over the last century:
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Justin Skycak@justinskycak

The knowledge graph is the main ingredient in our secret sauce that empowers students to learn at breakneck speed. Here's the rest of the recipe. Here's the physics of learning, and why almost no one uses it. * * * It’s shocking how much we know about how learning happens, all the way down to the mechanics of what’s going on in the brain. And not just how learning happens, but also, what can be done to improve learning. There are plenty of learning-enhancing practice strategies that have been tested scientifically, numerous times, and are completely replicable. They might as well be laws of physics. For instance: we know that actively solving problems produces more learning than passively watching a video/lecture or re-reading notes. (To be clear: active learning doesn’t mean that students never watch and listen. It just means that students are actively solving problems as soon as possible following a minimum effective dose of initial explanation, and they spend the vast majority of their time actively solving problems.) Another finding: if you don’t review information, you forget it. You can actually model this precisely, mathematically, using a forgetting curve. I’m not exaggerating when I refer to these things as laws of physics – the only real difference is that we’ve gone up several levels of scale and are dealing with noisier stochastic processes (that also have noisier underlying variables). * * * Okay, but aren’t these findings obvious? Yes, but… Yes, but in education, obvious strategies often aren't put into practice. For instance, plenty of classes that still run on a pure lecture format and don't review previously learned unless it's the day before a test. Yes, but there are plenty of other findings that replicate just as well but are not so obvious. Here are some less obvious findings. -- The spacing effect: more long-term retention occurs when you space out your practice, even if it's the same amount of total practice. -- A profound consequence of the spacing effect is that the more reviews are completed (with appropriate spacing), the longer the memory will be retained, and the longer one can wait until the next review is needed. This observation gives rise to a systematic method for reviewing previously-learned material called spaced repetition (or distributed practice). A "repetition" is a successful review at the appropriate time. -- To maximize the amount by which your memory is extended when solving review problems, it's necessary to avoid looking back at reference material unless you are totally stuck and cannot remember how to proceed. This is called the testing effect, also known as the retrieval practice effect: the best way to review material is to test yourself on it, that is, practice retrieving it from memory, unassisted. -- The testing effect can be combined with spaced repetition to produce an even more potent learning technique known as spaced retrieval practice. -- During review, it's also best to spread minimal effective doses of practice across various skills. This is known as mixed practice or interleaving -- it's the opposite of "blocked" practice, which involves extensive consecutive repetition of a single skill. Blocked practice can give a false sense of mastery and fluency because it allows students to settle into a robotic rhythm of mindlessly applying one type of solution to one type of problem. Mixed practice, on the other hand, creates a "desirable difficulty" that promotes vastly superior retention and generalization, making it a more effective review strategy. -- To free up mental processing power, it's critical to practice low-level skills enough that they can be carried out without requiring conscious effort. This is known as automaticity. Think of a basketball player who is running, dribbling, and strategizing all at the same time -- if they had to consciously manage every bounce and every stride, they'd be too overwhelmed to look around and strategize. The same is true in learning. -- The most effective type of active learning is deliberate practice, which consists of individualized training activities specially chosen to improve specific aspects of a student's performance through repetition (effortful repetition, not mindless repetition) and successive refinement. However, because deliberate practice requires intense effort focused in areas beyond one's repertoire, which tends to be more effortful and less enjoyable, people will tend to avoid it, instead opting to ineffectively practice within their level of comfort (which is never a form of deliberate practice, no matter what activities are performed). -- Instructional techniques that promote the most learning in experts, promote the least learning in beginners, and vice versa. This is known as the expertise reversal effect. An important consequence is that effective methods of practice for students typically should NOT emulate what experts do in the professional workplace (e.g., working in groups to solve open-ended problems). Beginners (i.e. students) learn most effectively through direct instruction. * * * Now, this might seem like a lot of new information -- a common reaction is “Wow, the field of education is experiencing a revolution!” But here’s the thing: Most key findings have been known for many decades. It’s just that they’re not widely known / circulated outside the niche fields of cognitive science & talent development, not even in seemingly adjacent fields like education. These findings are not taught in school, and typically not even in credentialing programs for teachers themselves – no wonder they’re unheard of! But if you just do a literature review on Google Scholar, all the research is right there – and it’s been around for many decades. Naturally, this leads us to the following question: Why aren't these key findings being leveraged in classrooms? Why do they remain relatively unknown? Here are a handful of reasons that I’m aware of. * * * 1. Leveraging them (at all) requires additional effort from both teachers and students. In some way or another, each strategy increases the intensity of effort required from students and/or instructors, and the extra effort is then converted into an outsized gain in learning. This theme is so well-documented in the literature that it even has a catchy name: a practice condition that makes the task harder, slowing down the learning process yet improving recall and transfer, is known as a desirable difficulty. Desirable difficulties make practice more representative of true assessment conditions. Consequently, it is easy for students (and their teachers) to vastly overestimate their knowledge if they do not leverage desirable difficulties during practice, a phenomenon known as the illusion of comprehension. However, the typical teacher is incentivized to maximize the immediate performance and/or happiness of their students, which biases them against introducing desirable difficulties and incentivizes them to promote illusions of comprehension. Using desirable difficulties exposes the reality that students didn’t actually learn as much as they (and their teachers) “felt” they did under less effortful conditions. This reality is inconvenient to students and teachers alike; therefore, it is common to simply believe the illusion of learning and avoid activities that might present evidence to the contrary. * * * 2. Leveraging cognitive learning strategies to their fullest extent requires an inhuman amount of effort from teachers. Let’s imagine a classroom where these strategies are being used to their fullest extent. -- Every individual student is fully engaged in productive problem-solving, with immediate feedback (including remedial support when necessary), on the specific types of problems, and in the specific types of settings (e.g., with vs without reference material, blocked vs interleaved, timed vs untimed), that will move the needle the most for their personal learning progress at that specific moment in time. -- This is happening throughout the entirety of class time, the only exceptions being those brief moments when a student is introduced to a new topic and observes a worked example before jumping into active problem-solving. Why is this an inhuman amount of work? -- First of all, it's at best extremely difficult, and at worst (and most commonly) impossible, to find a type of problem that is productive for all students in the class. Even if a teacher chooses a type of problem that is appropriate for what they perceive to be the "class average" knowledge profile, it will typically be too hard for many students and too easy for many others (an unproductive use of time for those students either way). -- Additionally, to even know the specific problem types that each student needs to work on, the teacher has to separately track each student's progress on each problem type, manage a spaced repetition schedule of when each student needs to review each topic, and continually update each schedule based on the student's performance (which can be incredibly complicated given that each time a student learns or reviews an advanced topic, they're implicitly reviewing many simpler topics, all of whose repetition schedules need to be adjusted as a result, depending on how the student performed). This is an inhuman amount of bookkeeping and computation. -- Furthermore, even on the rare occasion that a teacher manages to find a type of problem that is productive for all students in the class, different students will require different amounts of practice to master the solution technique. Some students will catch on quickly and be ready to move on to more difficult problems after solving just a couple problems of the given type, while other students will require many more attempts before they are able to solve problems of the given type successfully on their own. Additionally, some students will solve problems quickly while others will require more time. In the absence of the proper technology, it is impossible for a single human teacher to deliver an optimal learning experience to a classroom of many students with heterogeneous knowledge profiles, who all need to work on different types of problems and receive immediate feedback on each attempt. * * * 3. Most edtech systems do not actually leverage the above findings. If you pick any edtech system off the shelf and check whether it leverages each of the cognitive learning strategies I’ve described above, you’ll probably be surprised at how few it actually uses. For instance: -- Tons of systems don't scaffold their content into bite-sized pieces. -- Tons of systems allow students to move on to more material despite not demonstrating knowledge of prerequisite material. -- Tons of systems don't do spaced review. (Moreover, tons of systems don't do ANY review.) Sometimes a system will appear to leverage some finding, but if you look more closely it turns out that this is actually an illusion that is made possible by cutting corners somewhere less obvious. For instance: -- Tons of systems offer bite-sized pieces of content, BUT they accomplish this by watering down the content, cherry-picking the simplest cases of each problem type, and skipping lots of content that would reasonably be covered in a standard textbook. -- Tons of systems make students do prerequisite lessons before moving on to more advanced lessons, BUT they don't actually measure tangible mastery on prerequisite lessons. Simply watching a video and/or attempting some problems is not mastery. The student has to actually be getting problems right, and those problems have to be representative of the content covered in the lesson. -- Tons of systems claim to help students when they're struggling, BUT the way they do this is by lowering the bar for success on the learning task (e.g., by giving away hints). Really, what the system needs to do is take actions that are most likely to strengthen a student's area of weakness and empower them to clear the bar fully and independently on their next attempt. Now, I’m not saying that these issues apply to all edtech systems. I do think edtech is the way forward here – optimal teaching is an inhuman amount of work, and technology is needed. Heck, I personally developed all the quantitative software behind one system that properly handles the above challenges. All I’m saying is that you can’t just take these things at face value. Many edtech systems don’t really work from a learning standpoint, just as many psychology findings don’t hold up in replication – but at the same time, some edtech systems do work, shockingly well, just as some cognitive psychology findings do hold up and can be leveraged to massively increase student learning. * * * 4. Even if you leverage the above findings, you still have to hold students accountable for learning. Suppose you have the Platonic ideal of an edtech system that leverages all the above cognitive learning strategies to their fullest extent. Can you just put a student on it and expect them to learn? Heck no! That would only work for exceptionally motivated students. Most students are not motivated to learn the subject material. They need a responsible adult – such as a parent or a teacher – to incentivize them and hold them accountable for their behavior. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen the following situation play out: -- Adult puts a student on an edtech system. -- Student goofs off doing other things instead (e.g., watching YouTube). -- Adult checks in, realizes the student is not accomplishing anything, and asks the student what's going on. -- Student says that the system is too hard or otherwise doesn't work. -- Adult might take the student's word at face value. Or, if the adult notices that the student hasn't actually attempted any work and calls them out on it, the scenario repeats with the student putting forth as little effort as possible -- enough to convince the adult that they're trying, but not enough to really make progress. In these situations, here’s what needs to happen: -- The adult needs to sit down next to the student and force them to actually put forth the effort required to use the system properly. -- Once it's established that the student is able to make progress by putting forth sufficient effort, the adult needs to continue holding the student accountable for their daily progress. If the student ever stops making progress, the adult needs to sit down next to the student again and get them back on the rails. -- To keep the student on the rails without having to sit down next to them all the time, the adult needs to set up an incentive structure. Even little things go a long way, like "if you complete all your work this week then we'll go get ice cream on the weekend," or "no video games tonight until you complete your work." The incentive has to be centered around something that the student actually cares about, whether that be dessert, gaming, movies, books, etc. Even if an adult puts a student on an edtech system that is truly optimal, if the adult clocks out and stops holding the student accountable for completing their work every day, then of course the overall learning outcome is going to be worse.

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Jean-Rémi King
Jean-Rémi King@JeanRemiKing·
Excellent investigation of the mechanics of language models. 🫢A notable blindspot, however: several teams have actually been **directly** comparing the working of LLMs to those of the human brain 🧠 for a while. Here is a thread to highlight some of our (and our competitors'!) findings 👇
Anthropic@AnthropicAI

New Anthropic research: A global workspace in language models. Of everything happening in your brain right now, only a tiny fraction is consciously accessible—thoughts you can describe, hold in mind, and reason with. We found a strikingly similar divide inside Claude.

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TBPN
TBPN@tbpn·
.@_robtoews predicts humans will be able to communicate through telepathy by 2030. He argues the breakthrough has already been demonstrated in research labs, where scientists have translated thoughts directly into words using BCIs. "I would actually say that telepathy has been achieved today. What I would define as telepathy is if you can think thoughts and have your thoughts translated into words that other people can read or hear. That's already been accomplished by BCIs." "Eddie Chang, who's one of the world's leading BCI researchers at UCSF, runs the neurosurgery department. His lab has demonstrated in recent years that you can implant BCI chips into people's brains, tell what they're trying to say, and turn those brain signals into actual words."
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TBPN@tbpn·
.@_robtoews predicts that by 2030, AI will become so integrated into everyday life that society will be debating whether AI systems should have rights. "I think five years from now, everyone will interact in very extensive ways with AIs and have close relationships with them that endure over time. We'll have AI employees, we'll have AI friends, we'll have AI doctors, and AI girlfriends and boyfriends, which is a punchline today. But that will be a mainstream thing." "AI will not just be in the digital world anymore. Humanoid robots will also start to proliferate. These things will have physical forms that look like us. As the models get better and better, we will eventually start to feel like maybe these are things are not just objects that we can abuse or treat as property. Maybe they do have something approaching sentience and maybe we need to be thinking about how to treat them properly." "It sounds ridiculous today, but it is worth noting that all the frontier labs have started hiring people to work on model rights, model sentience, model consciousness, etc."
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Rob Toews
Rob Toews@_RobToews·
@tbpn Damn, was hoping you guys would choose the clip about robots playing beer pong
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Rob Toews
Rob Toews@_RobToews·
I feel like people aren't talking enough about Terafab....
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Sumner L Norman
Sumner L Norman@SumnerLN·
It’s been a big week (month? year? decade?) for ultrasound and I’m getting dozens of DMs so I’m going to do another one of these “the science behind” threads. On this weeks’ edition: Aleph’s incredible images and the ultrasound science behind them. 🧵🔊 x.com/alephneuro/sta…
Aleph@alephneuro

We recently obtained the highest-resolution 3D images of the human brain ever taken from outside the skull. This is the first look. Introducing Aleph, a research lab building brain interfaces for the telepathic future. (1/n)

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Rob Toews
Rob Toews@_RobToews·
5️⃣ The question of whether AIs deserve legal rights and protections will be a mainstream societal and political debate. 🤖
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Rob Toews
Rob Toews@_RobToews·
5 AI Predictions For The Year 2030 - a thread 🧵 1️⃣ Anthropic will be one of the largest and most important life sciences companies in the world. 🧬
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Jacob Effron
Jacob Effron@jacobeffron·
.@_RobToews , on why Google's structural advantages survive falling behind on coding:
Jacob Effron@jacobeffron

I sat down with @arimorcos and @_RobToews for our recurring AI vibe check. We got into the tenuous future of open source models, the latest in the lab wars and some really interesting future implications of the compute crunch. It's been far too long since we did one of these and I always have fun jamming with these two. This time we hit on: ▪️ Why near-frontier open weight AI may be disappearing ▪️ Will compute constraints push labs to suspend their own APIs ▪️ Frustrations around Fable ▪️ OpenAI’s future ▪️ Where we are with Recursive Self Improvement and its implications We also hit on Cursor/xAI, ASML competitors and a ton more. 0:00 Intro 1:40 Coding Agents Cross a Threshold 3:29 Is Open-Weight AI in Retreat? 7:37 Cost Crunch & Scaffolding 12:13 The "Apps Are Cooked" Debate 16:37 Sam Altman Under Scrutiny 19:44 Anthropic's Fable Backlash 23:24 How Big a Step Change Is Fable? 26:50 What's Going On at Google? 33:20 Could the APIs Go Away? 34:11 Breaking the Semiconductor Bottleneck 35:42 Beyond EUV: Atom & X-Ray Lithography 37:23 Implications of a Compute Shortage 40:20 Do Alt Chips Actually Help? 43:43 SpaceX, xAI & the Cursor Acquisition 48:50 How Close Are We to RSI? 52:21 Quickfire YouTube: youtu.be/W_iO8XxgD_I Spotify: bit.ly/4envbk8 Apple: bit.ly/4eoD4FT

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Ido Aizenbud
Ido Aizenbud@IdoAizenbud·
What can a neuron compute? Real biological neurons are complex, but how capable are they? Using a new method, we found that a single cortical neuron can classify cats vs dogs, recognize spoken words, and solve 10-bit parity, all tasks thought to require entire networks. (1/15)
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