Fox Mulder

@Jimmyjude13 @NikLentz MCB baby…

If you think the Feds next move is a hike, you would be better served walking your fat ass into on coming traffic.

@TexasOncologist You out kicked your coverage there big boy… 🙀

Clothes you only bust out on Derby Day… (American Cancer Society event)

Separating signal from noise…

Truth!

Always value your team’s work! Thanks for sharing.

@TicTocTick Love the GX mods…

Just filled up my truck. $6.29 a gallon. Paid $135. Last year I paid $50. This is insanity.

@ManuelBlay3 @ThierryBorgeat Buy high, sell higher…

Buy and hold? Buy weakness hoping for a rebound? Sure if you want to go to the almshouse. @ThierryBorgeat 's post should be pinned by us all

@MMTmacrotrader @DannyDayan5 Love your work Douglas, but must say, wealth effect is very real. I see it all the time. People see their 401k, IRA, property value going up and feel more wealthy. This leads them to spend money they might not have spent so willingly if those asset values were falling.

As Ritik alluded to, assuming no new money creation in the economy, if wealth via asset valuation rises for one person in the economy that means someone else who wants to own that asset is that much further away from doing so now. The question is then, does the lower rates which caused the asset valuation to rise increase growth driven money creation in anyway. From the fiscal side the obvious answer is no, it actually decreases money creation. So a net negative on the fiscal side. And on the credit side the answer seems to be (based on the outcome of the post GFC period) no as well.

The wealth effect argument has always bothered me. It seems backwards. Yes, lowering rates will boost asset prices via DCF math but an asset’s price and yield are inverse in the absence of new flows. Without balance sheet expansion, you’re just pulling forward future returns at the expense of less income going forward. This doesn't cause growth, it inhibits it because it requires savers to actually save more in relative terms. Prices don't cause spending, it's the spending (flows) that cause the price.

@exposurerisk Looks more like the beginning of something…

Focusing on what is NOT going to happen is sufficient, most of the time.

Important point…

@QuantifiedStrat Trading rules

@alphaarchitect @larryswedroe Thanks for sharing. You guys do great work! I have found the same tendencies. I never skip last month. Actually, my work suggests you should move to the weekly time series…

New research challenges a long-standing rule in momentum investing—and reveals surprising insights about when to use it. For decades, investors using momentum strategies have followed a simple rule: ignore last month's returns... by @larryswedroe alphaarchitect.com/?p=96947

@exposurerisk Yep… 2030’s won’t be for the faint of heart… Thanks for sharing your work. Some of the best.

@_TruthOutThere The last hurrah!

Same boring humans. V for Victory.

@flimpct @BigJoeBastardi I need Canada and the plains to be cold and snowy, while the south is wet with plenty of cold fronts from the north. Best recipe for waterfowl season…

@_TruthOutThere @BigJoeBastardi Jet will be displaced south. Northeast will be warmer than average and drier.

Our cold May idea looking good on the Euro. Now if only this was the temp/precip pattern for the upcoming winter. Snow Geese would honk

@Quant_Morales I’m in…

I've been using Claude Cowork and Claude Code for months to run my systematic trading workflows. Backtesting. P123 API automation. Risk dashboards. Monte Carlo simulations. PDF reports. All inside one workspace, agentic, end-to-end. The productivity gap between "chat with Claude" and "Cowork + Code" is massive. And almost nobody in finance is using them properly yet. Thinking about building a course specifically on Claude Cowork + Code applied to quantitative finance. Not generic AI productivity stuff. Real workflows for systematic traders and researchers. Would you be interested in something like this? Let me know in the comments and I'll gauge the demand.

@JamesBryantWX You might want to add the study of long term weather cycles to your analysis. Just a thought… Reach out to discuss.

Arkansas is trying to do the dust bowl again

@vixologist Those are rookie bears number…

C'mon, bears!! Pathetic! You need to do much better than this.

It could happen… I am paying attention…