@zephyr_z9 This is 1 trillion cumulative? Or just in 2027 as several sources are conflicting
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Wall Street Wire
151 posts
@ArmsGarrett What if it is accompanied with similar inflation pressures like in 2022?
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$HSBK a net beneficiary of higher oil. Macro component of 2026 30% ROE guide set assuming $64 brent—expect 5th straight year of 30%+ROE. Kazakhstan one of the most oil-leveraged economies in the world. Oil & gas related revs account for 35% of Kazakh GDP & 75% of exports. Non-Hormuz producer — routes oil thru the CPC & out Black Sea. Gets price windfall without supply disruption. Higher oil floods govt's National Fund & state budget. Spending flows directly into construction, infrastructure, SME lending, & consumer credit —Halyk's bread & butter. Oil booms (historically) compress non-performing loans. Kazakh tenge also trades in close correlation w/ oil, potential for strengthening. HSBK at 115% book & 3.7x EPS.
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@taobanker I wonder how many people realise its undervaluation compared to peers…
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@clkleinmonaco @17Summer20Fall There’s visa, Mastercard and Berkshire as big weightings in the index as well as a smaller weighting for the asset managers…
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@clkleinmonaco @17Summer20Fall Not good at all. But I’m wondering how liable it is to contaminate European banks more than it has already.
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I have sold my entire wti futures position overnight. I don’t have the balls to short it but happy with this run. Will leave it alone till it gives me the opportunity of a decent re-entry after the mkt retraces and retrace it will
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@clkleinmonaco @17Summer20Fall How come you think financials are particularly exposed?
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@17Summer20Fall Not particularly worried about the energy or gold/silver miners/equity. AI, tech, financials is a different story.
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The Perfect Storm for $FRO Is Finally Here
Less sanctioned oil, longer routes, more monitored barrels, and Frontline is printing 33% of its market cap in cash flow this year, based on current tanker rates.
Four charts that explain why the tanker super-cycle is becoming more structural, not less.
1️⃣ India and China are now importing 1.205 million barrels/day less sanctioned oil than a year ago.
The reason: U.S. and EU enforcement has finally tightened. A clear example came on 22 October, when Lukoil’s funds were frozen. Trading with Lukoil instantly became impossible for any Western-linked entity, and anyone who continues dealing with them risks severe legal consequences.
2️⃣ With fewer sanctioned barrels flowing through the dark fleet, legal oil in transit has surged to an all-time high.
These are the tankers tracked via the Automatic Identification System (AIS), the mandatory tracking system that shows where ships are. Less dark fleet automatically means more crude moving through the monitored fleet.
3️⃣ Almost all global production growth now comes from the Western Hemisphere: Guyana, Brazil, the U.S. and Canada.
These barrels must travel to Asia, where demand is growing fastest. That means one of the longest shipping routes in the world. This structural trade-flow shift ensures years of elevated ton-miles, the foundation of the tanker upcycle.
4️⃣ Frontline vs. the S&P500 YTD (Total Return).
Frontline is currently generating cash flow equal to 33% of its market cap. With sanctioned imports falling and the dark fleet unlikely to grow from here, it is hard to imagine this outperformance reversing anytime soon.
Karel Mercx@KarelMercx
52-week high for $FRO, and the long-term bull market is nowhere near finished. The Very Large Crude Carrier market is built on structural tightness that simply cannot be fixed in the short run. Aging fleet More than one-third of the global VLCC fleet is approaching scrap age. Combine this with stricter emissions rules and you get a permanent structural reduction in available capacity. Old ships leave the market faster than new ones arrive. Historically low orderbook New supply is barely growing. Less than 1 percent of the VLCC fleet is added per year, while tonne-mile demand keeps rising as more barrels head to Asia on longer routes. Demand up, supply flat, that’s how supercycles are created. Yard capacity locked until 2029 The shipyards are full. Containers, LNG carriers and auto carriers have taken every available slot. Even if owners wanted to flood the market with new VLCC orders, they can’t. There is simply no room to build them before 2029. The extreme scenario: dark fleet collapse = super bull case If insurers refuse coverage, if major ports start banning these vessels, if sanctions tighten further, and if a series of accidents triggers political pressure, the dark fleet can implode within months. That would instantly remove 10 to 20 percent of global tanker capacity. Very Large Crude Carrier rates could go truly parabolic, $200,000 to $300,000 per day becomes realistic. For Frontline, that is the ultimate bull scenario.
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@PatchesAKF Maybe there is a glimmer of hope after these Worldline earnings…
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Amazing how true this is…
Ian Cassel@iancassel
When stocks go up everyone is willing to look the other way on almost any issue. When a stock is rising investors pull out a telescope from the closet, climb onto the roof, and look way out into the future to justify paying a higher valuation today. When stocks go down the telescopes turn into microscopes. Everyone focuses on next quarter and all the little cracks in a thesis that were always there are now obsessed over by everyone. A high share price forgives all ills, and a low share price magnifies them. microcapclub.com/stock-prices/
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@zephyr_z9 How material do you think this is for aixtron?
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Micro led is a hoax. The quantum computing of communication systems.
QF Research@ResearchQf
2) $CRDO optical road map based on Dec earnings call and Jan conference comments. ZeroFlap Optics and Active (micro)LED Cables or ALCs. CRDO thinks ALC TAM will "ultimately be more than double the size of the AEC TAM." ZF Optics uses standard transceivers with CRDO optical DSPs and software/firmware to improve reliability, remotely manage, efficiently maintain etc. ZF is "multi-billion dollar" opportunity long term. Both speak to transitions toward optical, from shorter reach AECs to longer distances.
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@realroseceline But for the record, attempting to dismiss my argument as your point has ‘nothing to do with this particular trade’ is not relevant. Because the ‘trade’ is an analogy for any other trade that would apply to the above point you made.
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@_WallStreetWire What this misses is you missing the point of my post which has nothing to do with this particular trade!
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On paper, selling something at $200 after buying it at $7 looks like a brilliant masterpiece. It feels like you nailed it, the screenshots look legendary and the percentage gain sounds absurd. But almost nobody does or often times even considers the real math. I see this mistake made over and over again.
If you bought at $7 and sold at $200, your gain is $193. After 30% long term capital gains taxes, that’s about $58 gone immediately. Now you don’t have $200 per share to redeploy, you have about $142.
If the stock drops to $131 and you buy it back, you’re not capturing a 35% decline. You’re turning $142 into $131. That gives you roughly 8% more shares than before.
After all these brilliant looking trades on paper and trying to time the markets you’re getting ONLY 8% MORE!
That’s the real edge after a “perfect” sell and a 35% pullback. This is what most investors miss. They calculate price returns, not capital returns. Once you sell, Uncle Sam immediately becomes your largest partner and gets his cut. To overcome him, you need a very big reset, not just a 30% dip because such a pullback doesn’t justify the big tax bill you paid.
The uncomfortable truth is that trading around great winners is much harder than it looks. Every time you sell, you shrink the base that compounds for you. Unless the valuation was insane or the fundamentals broke, you’re often just interrupting your own long term math.
My point is not to ridicule this person. I do not know him, and for all I know he lives in a low tax jurisdiction where the math is different. The point is simply that most people do not know how to calculate their real returns, and the gap between paper profits and actual wealth creation is often much larger than you think.
🌹
Yiannis Zourmpanos@yianisz
I sold $PLTR at ~$200 after riding it from $7. No regrets. Now 35% off highs = reset, not broken. Time to get back on the ship.
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@realroseceline I absolutely see what you are saying-and my point is peripheral to your argument that the tax implications makes trading your long term winners even harder. But my point is a fairly obvious caveat that you ignored and which is relevant to mention.
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$SPRB
If anyone wants to discuss further, feel free to DM.
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@Jason People always try this when I talk about conciseness. As in this case they usually end up showing what happens when you go to far. You threw out so many babies with the bathwater. For example, you might as well just cut 2 now, since there is no longer any connection to 1.
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1. When you write something intended to be read by an important person, go through it and cut every unnecessary word.
2. The reader of anything you publish is an important person.
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@zephyr_z9 What will be the breakdown in your view between fluxless TCB and Hybrid bonding
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BESI recently won large bonding orders from TSMC as well
Jukan@jukan05
The news that Apple’s high-end M5 chip uses SoIC packaging came out back in February last year~. Pretty much everyone in the industry already knows about it. For the SoIC packaging in this high-end M5 chip, BESI’s hybrid bonding equipment was used.
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@JourneyToIthaka UCG issuing the new AT1s with a 301bps reset margin with the Cashes still outstanding at 450...
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now we can say the european leveraged loan index is under some pressure
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$HYUD $57.60 (Hyundai 1st preferred) is still one of the cheapest stocks in developed markets when you peel back the layers. Trades at 3.3x trailing earnings and closer to 2x earnings when adjusting for JVs— ~9% TTM dividend on a 30% payout ratio.
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Without any context does this chart look bullish or bearish to you? This chart goes up when financial stocks start going down.
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