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Aava
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Aava
@__Aava__
~ I speak art ~ Deterministic stochasticity ~ 📈
In Simulation #77,378,379Az Katılım Mart 2018
5.2K Takip Edilen11.2K Takipçiler
Government overspending is what creates inflation.
We need to make that link crystal clear to the American people!
Jon Erlichman@JonErlichman
U.S. national debt: 2024: $36 trillion 2014: $24 trillion 2004: $12 trillion 1994: $10 trillion 1984: $5 trillion 1974: $3 trillion 1964: $3 trillion 1954: $3 trillion 1944: $4 trillion 1934: $637 billion 1924: $395 billion (inflation adjusted)
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"The task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen, but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody sees."
- Erwin Schrödinger
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Yesterday there was a million-year pause in the simulation, but no one noticed.
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@josephwang He however didn’t address asset inflation, which is why young people can’t buy a house today.
My best understanding of asset inflation over the last two decades or so is that it’s been caused first and foremost by central bank policies.
Please let me know if that’s incorrect.🙏🏻
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This is true because government securities are money like in the modern financial system. Deficit spending is functionally similar to money printing. Government buys stuff and pays by printing Treasuries.
A 6% fiscal deficit forever is obviously structurally inflationary.
Elon Musk@elonmusk
The rise in prices (inflation) is caused by government overspending, which increases the amount of money faster than the increase in goods & services output. That is the vast majority of the problem. Inflation was particularly bad during the Covid years, as there was massive government spending, despite productivity plunging, as people were forced to stay home. This is further exacerbated by excess regulation, which prevents the market from solving an unmet need (eg housing in high-demand areas). Occasionally, there is monopolistic behavior by companies, but this is relatively rare and usually only possible if those companies have gained control of their industry regulator. Again, a government, not private sector, problem.
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@texasrunnerDFW @elonmusk Agreed, but he addressed inflation and not asset inflation (property prices rising). I’d argue rent increases are mostly caused by the latter. Those have been mainly due to easy money policy by the Fed and central banks worldwide (their easy money fuels our asset prices too).
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The rise in prices (inflation) is caused by government overspending, which increases the amount of money faster than the increase in goods & services output.
That is the vast majority of the problem.
Inflation was particularly bad during the Covid years, as there was massive government spending, despite productivity plunging, as people were forced to stay home.
This is further exacerbated by excess regulation, which prevents the market from solving an unmet need (eg housing in high-demand areas).
Occasionally, there is monopolistic behavior by companies, but this is relatively rare and usually only possible if those companies have gained control of their industry regulator. Again, a government, not private sector, problem.
mark pincus@markpinc
Omg. Its the same crazy ideas we heard from Biden. Price caps on food and rent. How does this even come up in a capitalist free market?
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@olvelez007 @CooliganFields You are however covered if a Starlink satellite falls on your head.
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A civil war clause is now part of all major insurance policies, so you know what's coming to you right? That's the goal, the objective, one way or the other. Remember that civil wars reset everything that you messed up. They are desired.
Plan accordingly. #Bitcoin only.
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What is a proton made of?
Early scattering experiments probing the substructure of the proton found an interesting result. Instead of being made just from point-like particles (quarks), there seemed to be more going on inside the proton
A🧵1/6
GIF
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Population collapse is accelerating
More Births@MoreBirths
What most people fail to grasp about the low birthrate crisis is the sheer speed of the decline. This chart (NYT) shows how much births dropped in 1 year. Births/woman from 2015 to 2023: 1.78 to 1.14 in Chile 1.79 to 1.45 in UK 2.24 to 1.35 in Argentina 1.24 to 0.72 in S Korea
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This is the funniest table in finance right now
Returns from buying when CNCB goes full alert “Markets on Turmoil”
Thanks to Charlie Billelo
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From my buddy @PauloMacro and his excellent blog…
Don’t think guys have thought this through very far.
-If Fed cuts aggressively here, JPY goes to 120 and every CUSIP has a flash crash, as the carry trade blows up.
-If Fed cuts slowly, then it may just blow everything up anyway, cause the economy is rolling over and the ‘wealth effect’ was the only thing holding it up.
-Meanwhile, we just had a 10-yr auction that effectively failed. So if the Fed cuts at all, they blow up the bond market and the banking sector. They realistically need to raise rates aggressively here to save things (imagine that!!). That’s the EM Dilemma. Which is why DMs do not want to become EMs. Or in other words, ‘they’re fuct!!’
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The Fed is in a lose-lose situation:
1. If the Fed cuts rates aggressively right now, markets tank further and they risk a resurgence of inflation.
Cutting US rates will only make the Yen carry trade unwinding WORSE, likely sending the Nasdaq into bear market territory.
2. If the Fed doesn't cut rates right now, recession fears will continue to mount.
No rate cuts means more worry about rising unemployment which is now at a 3-year high.
The Fed must pick between market and inflation instability or a potential recession.
And even if they pick the right former, we may still end up in a recession.
It's going to be a bumpy road ahead.
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