DH

There has never been a bigger gap. Right now, there are two camps on this app. 1. 4 year cycle, 75% correction, Bottom October Q4 1064 days 2. Macro and business cycle, currently a mid cycle top with expansion into new highs this year What makes it even more interesting is that up until this very moment, the 4 year cycle theory has held weight. And to add to that even more, this is the first time these cycles have diverged. But what is more important to a liquidity asset like Bitcoin? A time-based theory that leans on nothing but that... just time? Or a macro framework that is based on the actual expansion and contraction of the US economy? And its important to note there have only actually been 2 cycles that you can class as a 4 year cycle also. 2013 - 2017 2017 - 2021 This current cycle is yet to be decided. We have reached the stage in the market where people are actually laughing at the ISM... which i think is actually a really good sign. The cold hard truth is this. Every single time the ISM has entered expansion it has sparked a bull market. Not twice... Every single time. And this isn't some magical force. It is simply because as the worlds largest economy expands, everything expands. We have never entered a long and drawn out bear market as ISM enters expansion... ever. To bet on that happening now, for the first time, in my view... Is folly.

Ok now riquidate Michaer Sayror

This "Epstein Quantum Saylor Liquidated Tether Binance" Dip is 100% totally organic and not at all orchestrated FUD to shakeout retail retards right before CLARITY Act is law and the institutions flood in to take their Bitcoin at a generational entry point.

Notable Sale on GONDI: V1 PUNK #4559, Zombie, just sold for 58,000 USDC. It was in a 24,400 USDC 30-day duration loan, and sold via the “Sell & Repay” function on the 5th day.

@JaydenLevitt Exactly my thoughts too. The tricky part seems to be getting people into it in the first place

People will eventually grapple with the idea that holding NFTs is much more interesting than coins. Built-in supply friction. Connects you with a community. Social signalling. And the fact they’re just much more interesting.

@thepropgallery V1 punks

I have 5 ETH, where would you put it?

@AndrewsaurP Time × Interesting Things Occurring = Provenance = Value I can’t see anything that ranks higher than v1 punks on this scale

NFTs aren’t dead. They’re dead as you know them. To think the NFT market should have been worth billions of dollars was always unrealistic. For one to understand why a multi-billion dollars NFT market at this stage of the NFT lifecycle doesn’t make sense, you need to understand the primary value driver first: provenance. What is provenance? The verifiable history of an asset. The longer, more storied, and more impactful that history, the greater the provenance. Why does provenance matter? Collectibles and art derive value from narrative ownership. The Mona Lisa isn’t the greatest painting ever made, it’s the theft, Da Vinci himself, the mystique of her gaze. People buy the story. The history. Provenance has demand because humans are drawn to objects with earned, documented significance. Why have NFTs hit a wall? Provenance cannot be manufactured. It requires time, but time alone isn’t enough. History is what happens during that time. Formulaically: Time × Interesting Things Occurring = Provenance = Value If time is near-zero relative to other collectibles (physical art, rare books, vintage sneakers), then the capacity to accrue deep provenance is severely constrained (unless extraordinary events occur to counterbalance.) What counts as “interesting”? These are events that impact the collectible or NFT that the market agrees are interesting. If I alone believe something is interesting then that does not improve the provenance for anyone but myself, and therefore the price someone is willing to pay for the NFT does not move. Interesting stories must emerge organically from genuine cultural moments or meaningful developments tied to the collection. One cannot force interesting stories upon the object. That in itself makes it uninteresting. It must occur naturally. Organically. NFT collectibles that have come and gone have leaned heavily on going unnaturally quick. Aside from the fact that this is poor business and brand strategy, it does not serve the purpose they wish it did : more provenance. So, where does that leave the NFT market today? As one would expect, the many collections that have tried to accelerate provenance have taken a beating. It was never possible by definition. And, of course, time is still rather short relative to the entire collectibles landscape. This is a reset. Only the few collections that have been building for many years and who will reliably continue doing so should accrue stronger valuations. Where does this leave us? Collections that rushed provenance are underwater. Many should stay there. Time is still short relative to the entire collectibles market, and most projects lack the infrastructure or vision to sustain meaningful narrative over decades. The current reset is appropriate in this context. On the other side of it remains a meaningfully prosperous NFT landscape. Only collections built with multi-year discipline, cultural relevance, and no shortcuts will accrue stronger value going forward. And, before the first comment reminds me about farming and airdrops and so on, I leave the following: - consider the analysis above as speaking purely to the core inherit value of the NFT - consider that the things being airdropped or claimed likely have the same or similar valuation fallacies I’ve described

@tomsegal @KosherCowboy Sent you a DM

@KosherCowboy 👀

Did you know there’s a new NFT strategy? This time it’s for @v1punks The protocol already acquired 2 V1 and it’s on his way to the 3rd one #PUNKSR As always DYOR @punkreserve

A bear market is not starting... OTHERS has been in a bear market against BTC for 4 years now. You're alts are gonna die... because they are already dead! We can see between 2017 and 2020 OTHERS got smoked against BTC leading into QT ending... Then, as liquidity became positive again, they began their expansion. The exact same thing is underway now, just on a larher timeframe. As I've been saying for ages, we have been a in the largest contraction seen for decades over the last 3 years. That is about to end. The business cycle has been in its longest contraction ever... which is also about to end. The bad news is... Your alts are already dead. The good news is... They are soon coming back to life. Nothing about this market position shows us that we are entering a prolonged bear market. In fact, it shows the opposite. We are about to enter the best time for alts.

It's absolutely fascinating watching 95% of CT debate the definition of bull and bear market structure based on the price which ends the current consolidation descending channel and a 4 year calendar period. Absolutely mind boggling really when it has nothing to do with it. "If we close the weekly at this price, then it's a bear market." Ugh fuck off already with that nonsense. Raoul Pal gets it when he says $BTC isn't lagging, it's literally tracking the ISM PMI. The 4 year cycle doesn't drive $BTC. Isn't that what I've been telling all of you? Watch his video and educate yourselves, stop listening to the clown doomers in this space.

Just Registered for the @MacroStrategy__ airdrop #MacroStrategy macrostrategy.tech/?ref=__DH88

Just Registered for the @MacroStrategy__ airdrop #MacroStrategy macrostrategy.tech/?ref=__DH88

Cryptopunks V1 and V2 👀 Facts: the bug was never in the art. 🎨 Back in June 2017, the collection was already live, the originals (V1) existed. The “problem” was only in the system that allowed people to buy and sell. To fix transactions, they created V2. But that didn’t erase V1. In art, if a painting can’t be sold, it’s still the original real artwork. Museums and collectors know: V1 carries the higher value. Because history cannot be rewritten. Do you agree, or what’s your view? 👀

@benjamincowen Why 21w?

Translation: Ethereum is going to drop to the 21W EMA and then go to new all time highs

Today I sold my V2 punk to purchase more V1s. It's becoming clear that the V1/V2 punk argument rests solely on the latter group's ability to brand themselves as "real" through their social network. If the story of the flawed V1 contract were to play out today, duplicating and then airdropping the new collection would be an unacceptable solution. This made all punks 1 of 2s, with V1 punks as the “first editions” of these assets. In all other collectible classes, the earlier editions of something are more sought after. This is also generally true of the scarcer misprint variants of assets - there are far fewer V1s still in circulation. The solution was accepted at the time of the V1 exploit because there were minimal options with which to view onchain assets - what Larva Labs platformed was what everyone got to interact with. With the introduction of third party marketplaces and the V1 wrapping contract, this ceased to be the case. Very few people in the community back in the day had enough foresight to realise that all LL had done was sweep the originals under the rug. The narrative that V2s are in some way superior is defended largely by the snobbish type of collector who judges art only by its price, and has an emotional attachment to the status that owning this asset gives them. They see attempts to discuss the onchain truth of the story as an attack on their gated social group and the sunk cost of their investment. This is ignorance of the provenance uniquely available through the blockchain, and an elitist rejection of another community as a way of preserving capital; they are neither ‘crypto’ nor ‘punk’. Any newcomer to onchain collecting, being exposed to the publicly verifiable and immutable information available surrounding these collections, would judge V1s - at less than 10% the price of the V2s - as the more grounded choice. There are a handful of common counterarguments. V1s are unable to use their original in-contract marketplace because of the exploit, but this experience has been abstracted into existence. The chains of ownership are different as they fork after the V2 airdrop, meaning they have different social networks, but V1s have a nascent community capturing the more historically minded. V1s do not receive the same IP rights as V2s, although onchain PfP IP has proven to be rarely utilized. There are 20,000 punks. The V1 punks are the original cryptopunks that were claimed on June 9th, 2017. The later V2 punks have the backing of their creators and are more well known, benefitting disproportionately from this publicity. This is a fascinating case of art undergoing a literal schism - one collection to serve the will of the artist, and the other becoming inseparable from its foundations, the machine it was built to showcase. This machine will outlive us, and with it, the story of how a failure of imagination led to the burying of the truth of its icons.

incredible things happening with @v1punks volume 🆙 sales 🆙 floor 🆙 sales happening way above floor prices are an indication that current floor wont last long

@RedHotChiliPunk @longlivetheSNS @v1punks @cryptopunks “V1” are actual CryptoPunks “V2” are called CryptoPunksMarket

From CryptoPunks official book

A must-watch to understand CryptoPunks history, told by @frankNFT_eth, the V1 wrapper developer. Surprising this amateur documentary has under 2,000 views. youtube.com/watch?v=NUNm6j…