Cortez
7.2K posts













Urea fertilizer is up 50% since the Strait closed five weeks ago. Trump's Tuesday 8 PM ET deadline decides whether the next 90 days hold or compress. 30% of the world's fertilizer passes through Hormuz. The Gulf produces nearly half of global urea and 30% of ammonia. European and African farm markets are already paying for it. Asia takes the oil hit first. 80% of its imports run through the Strait. Vietnam holds under 20 days of reserves. Japan and South Korea have deeper reserves but near-zero domestic production. Europe takes the macro hit. The ECB postponed rate cuts and raised its inflation forecast. No fiscal room after 2022. Germany, UK, Italy carry the highest recession exposure. Trump told Fox today the US does not need Gulf oil. Europe does. The US has shale. The pressure lands in fertilizer, petrochemicals, and supply-chain inflation long before it hits the pump. Q2, not Q1. If Tuesday's strike triggers Iranian retaliation against Aramco, UAE desalination, or Kuwait refineries, the 90 days becomes weeks.
























