Natalia Pavlova

3K posts

Natalia Pavlova

Natalia Pavlova

@_b0dh1

Go tell Churchill that "war is never the answer." И ещё одна непопулярная мысль: Россия ≠ Путин. Коллапс путинизма есть победа России, и я желаю России победы.

Buenos Aires, Argentina Katılım Haziran 2011
100 Takip Edilen179 Takipçiler
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Natalia Pavlova
Natalia Pavlova@_b0dh1·
@BarakRavid @TreyYingst All this time and they couldn’t find better targets than power plans and bridges??? Like, say, locations of all the IRGC top figures?
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Barak Ravid
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid·
Trump tells @TreyYingst the U.S. military is going to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges next week, if it doesn't come to the table and negotiates
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The Wall Street Journal
From @WSJopinion: JD Vance and the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week. His “understanding” with Iran is in tatters, and Trump has diverged from him on arming Ukraine, writes Allysia Finley. on.wsj.com/4bhV1oQ
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Natalia Pavlova
Natalia Pavlova@_b0dh1·
@Fangting2742611 @IranIntl_En Votes were cast remotely afaik. I do not know what information about candidates and their health conditions each member of that Assembly of Experts had in the beginning of March 2026. It was reported that Vahidi pushed for Mojtaba, but who can tell really.
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Fangting
Fangting@Fangting2742611·
@_b0dh1 @IranIntl_En 他们为什么从老哈梅内伊的四个儿子中偏偏选择严重受伤的穆杰塔巴来继位?
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Iran International English
President Donald Trump said on Monday that Iran's top commanders had been killed, and Mojtaba Khamenei was 90% gone. “They have no navy, they have no air force, it's all gone. Their anti-aircraft is gone, their leaders have all been killed, their best leaders have been killed,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News. “Khamenei is gone, the son is 90% gone,” Trump added. iranintl.com/en/202607132514
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Natalia Pavlova
Natalia Pavlova@_b0dh1·
Isn’t it better to have something like the Marshall Plan for the aftermath? They’ve decapitated the Venezuela’s government, shaken up the system. Would you prefer them leaving Venezuelans to their own devices or steering them toward a stable democracy? What choice was made for the after-USSR Russia and do you like the consequences?
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Konstantin Sonin
Konstantin Sonin@k_sonin·
There is so much noise these days that big news easily go unnoticed. If the today's reporting by @nytimes on the US-Venezuela relationships is half-true, it is a revolutionary change in the US foreign policy. It's arguably larger than the war with Iran and Maduro's capture. The US government runs Venezuela as a colonial administration: nytimes.com/2026/07/11/us/…. "Colonial" not in a rhetorical sense, but in an actual historical one. The lever is full control over oil export revenues, which are then authorized to be spent on behalf of the national government. The Maduro's rule was so bad for Venezuelans that I am pretty sure they massively benefit from the current arrangement. Less is stolen, more is actually spent on public goods. At the same time, I cannot imagine this to be sustainable for long. Any - any! - politician, good or bad, that will stand for democratic elections will campaign against this. And if there are no elections, it will be a national liberation movement as it happened many times before. The history teaches us that the only way to keep this regime going for a long time is to keep a repressive, authotarian state. And it will very soon be worse than under Maduro. I very much hope Secretary @marcorubio understands this.
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Alexander Pomazuev
Alexander Pomazuev@APomazuev·
Excellent news! Today, the EU has imposed sanctions on several key companies from our list of internet villains. The most notable success is the operator of the MAX messenger, which is controlled by the Russian authorities and used for surveillance and censorship. In addition, Citadel, “Norsi-Trans” and VAS Experts - suppliers of equipment used to block internet access - have been sanctioned. Their executives have also been included on the sanctions list, in line with our demands. The parent company of the MAX operator, VK, which long ago ceased to function as a private IT giant and has instead become a department of internet censorship within Russia’s Presidential Administration, has likewise been sanctioned. These sanctions against the companies concerned are the outcome of our campaign to protect the Russian internet. The less control President Putin exercises over information, the weaker he becomes and the fewer opportunities he has to pursue unpopular measures. Furthermore, the sanctions increase the cost to the state of developing substitute infrastructure and internet blocking tools designed to place the entire population under a digital GULAG. As part of the same campaign, we had called for the removal of the MAX messenger from the App Store, which has already happened. The sanctions bring the complete removal of the messenger from app stores one step closer. This, in turn, makes the use of state-censored products less convenient, deters users and hinders the state’s ability to fully block uncensored means of communication.
The Anti-Corruption Foundation@ACF_int

‼️ New EU sanctions target VK, MAX, and those responsible for internet censorship. The European Union has imposed sanctions on the social media platform VK and the legal entity behind the MAX messenger. This was one of the key demands of our “I Am Online” campaign to defend internet freedom. The EU also sanctioned a number of individuals from the list our team submitted, calling for restrictions against those responsible for enabling internet censorship in Russia. The list identifies the people who help build and maintain Russia’s online censorship system: fbk.info/files/censors.…

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The Anti-Corruption Foundation
‼️ New EU sanctions target VK, MAX, and those responsible for internet censorship. The European Union has imposed sanctions on the social media platform VK and the legal entity behind the MAX messenger. This was one of the key demands of our “I Am Online” campaign to defend internet freedom. The EU also sanctioned a number of individuals from the list our team submitted, calling for restrictions against those responsible for enabling internet censorship in Russia. The list identifies the people who help build and maintain Russia’s online censorship system: fbk.info/files/censors.…
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Natalia Pavlova
Natalia Pavlova@_b0dh1·
@TheStudyofWar Oman, too, hey?.. It’s a very strange way to understand the Memorandum of Understanding, especially that part about defining things in “dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman” and “discussions with other Persian Gulf Littoral States”.
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Institute for the Study of War
NEW: Iran is refusing any arrangement that undermines Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and is using force to maintain its control. Iran views control over the Strait of Hormuz as a major strategic objective, and its leaders believe that if Iran ends the war without control of the strait, it would be a serious strategic defeat. (1/2) Other Key Takeaways: Recent US strikes have attempted to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping, but it remains unclear when Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping will be degraded sufficiently to prevent individual attacks that disrupt shipping. Iran is likely attacking Persian Gulf littoral states to deter them from supporting US- or Gulf-led efforts to limit Iranian control over the strait. Iran fired missiles and drones at US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, and Oman on July 12 in retaliation for the US strikes in Iran on July 11.
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Natalia Pavlova retweetledi
Charbel-Raphael
Charbel-Raphael@CRSegerie·
This will probably be my most important intellectual contribution of the year. The current bottleneck for AI safety is political will, not research. And our field is not acting like it.
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Jeffrey Ladish
Jeffrey Ladish@JeffLadish·
Getting married tomorrow 💕
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Natalia Pavlova
Natalia Pavlova@_b0dh1·
@siaxares Or in a vegetable state. Or cognitively impaired. In any case, Mojtaba’s incapacity to be the Supreme Leader is too obvious at this point. All this is bound to blow up the Iranian regime from the inside and soon; this charade is unsustainable.
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Siaxares 🇮🇷 🇺🇸
The evidence keeps piling up, and it all points to one inescapable conclusion: Mojtaba Khamenei is dead. My article has already laid out the case clearly. On top of that, we also know Ghalibaf’s office producing statements in Mojtaba’s name — identical PDF metadata, same Adobe InDesign setup, same workflow, same everything. This isn’t an independent Supreme Leader’s office. It’s a ghostwriting operation run straight out of Ghalibaf’s team. The absences make the picture even sharper. Mojtaba skipped his father’s funeral entirely. And now, with the recent memorial service held for his wife and children, there’s still no sign of him — not even his brothers showed up. A living Mojtaba, even if injured or in hiding, would have been used for legitimacy. The regime that stages every event for propaganda has offered nothing but silence. All of it fits the same pattern: the strikes that killed Ali Khamenei also took Mojtaba. The regime buried him quietly and installed a digital puppet to keep the illusion of continuity alive, with Ghalibaf and the IRGC faction pulling the strings from behind the curtain. The throne isn’t occupied by a Supreme Leader. It’s occupied by a ghost and a stack of identical PDF files. I would really like to hear your theories on this one. #MojtabaIsDead
Siaxares 🇮🇷 🇺🇸@siaxares

x.com/i/article/2066…

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Iran International English
Leaked police radio obtained by Iran International reveals orders to fire on protesters in Isfahan on January 8 and 9. The five-hour audio file shows Iranian police were authorized to use military-grade weapons during the crackdown. Listen to excerpts from the police radio communications in this video.
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Сирена
Сирена@news_sirena·
За первые дни июля цены на бензин на заправках взлетели на 24% За первую декаду июля медианная стоимость бензина АИ-92 взлетела на 20%, достигнув 70,5 рублей за литр, а АИ-95 — сразу на 24%, до 77,5 рублей за литр. Об этом сообщает «Коммерсантъ» со ссылкой на данные аналитического ресурса «Чек Индекс», собранные на основе чеков с каждой третьей заправки в стране. По оценкам компании, средняя цена марки АИ-98 на АЗС в начале июля увеличилась на 32% год к году, до 119,5 руб. за литр, АИ-100 — на 13%, до 94,5 руб. за литр. Дизельное топливо за год подорожало на 11%, до 88 руб. за литр, компримированный природный газ (КПГ) — на 14%, до 29 руб., сжиженный углеводородный газ (СУГ) — на 18%, до 35,5 руб. за литр. @news_sirena
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Natalia Pavlova
Natalia Pavlova@_b0dh1·
«- Что-то Трампушка-то больше не наш, Владимир Владимирович… Хохлам помогать начал… - &$!#%(много мата) - Да это его науськивают всякие, вот Грэм этот, гадина, и прочие… - &$!#%(много мата) Вы хули ничего не делаете?! - Мы тут подумали… А может это - грохнуть его, Грэма этого? Причём в Киеве. Не новичком, а чем попроще - мышьяком или полонием. Всполошатся, будут думать на хохлов, а мы им поможем думать в эту сторону. В любом случае, доказать не смогут, а в Киев зарекутся ездить, и про нас плохое говорить, за жопки свои забеспокоются… - Попробуйте.»
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Медиазона
Медиазона@mediazzzona·
О чем говорят данные о заправках от крупнейших банков страны Привет, это Давид Френкель и дата-отдел «Медиазоны». Бензиновый кризис в России скоро отметит первый полный месяц, но перед журналистами до сих пор остро стоит вопрос: как его качественно измерить? Да, конечно, можно собирать ролики из соцсетей или рассказы людей о том как они прождали два дня в очереди, но это отдельные истории, которые не дают полной картины для всех регионов. Теперь у нас впервые начали появляться данные, которые надежно и полно отражают ситуацию. Сначала Т-Банк, а потом и Сбер запустили открытые карты доступности бензина на всех заправках страны. Для каждой из 30 тысяч заправок они показывают время последней транзакции — то есть когда там человеку продали топливо. «Яндекс.Заправки» тоже добавили индикаторы на свою внутреннюю карту, но к ним подключены меньше половины АЗС страны, а оплата в обход приложения там не учитывается. Мы в дата-отделе собираем эти данные для всех 30 тысяч заправок с момента их появления, чтобы оценить в динамике, какие АЗС постоянно пользуются спросом, а где почему-то нет ни одной транзакции. И пока не торопимся с выводами, потому что явных закономерностей там не видно. Да, не на всех заправках видны регулярные оплаты, но это не значит, что там точно никто не заправляется — просто у людей наличные или карты других банков. Что пока точно видно, так это что заправки так или иначе работают во всех регионах. Когда коллеги пишут, что не нашли активных АЗС в каких-то небольших республиках или отдаленных областях — это скорее всего связано с проблемами ручного поиска. Мы же собираем полные данные, там пока нет признаков того, что где-то совсем закончился бензин. Оплаты клиентов «Т-Банка» на протяжении нескольких дней стабильно появляются менее чем на 8 тысячах заправок. Карта «Сбера» появилась только вчера, но уже видно, насколько больше у него клиентов — там около 10 тысяч активных заправок в моменте. Это все равно менее половины от всех АЗС страны. Вот как сейчас выглядит антитоп регионов, в которых активны (была оплата в течение трех суток) меньше всего заправок от общего числа.
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