Alec 🟠🐊

Why I'm bullish on Bitcoin despite price being red: Bitcoin's price is always oscillating between three states - overvalued, fair value, and undervalued. The price we see today is temporary. It is not a verdict on Bitcoin’s long-term reality. Fundamentally, Bitcoin has never been stronger. It has never missed a block, never been hacked, and continues to operate exactly as designed. Governments are more open to it than ever. Wall Street has built regulated financial products around it. Spot ETFs are thriving, giving millions of people exposure without needing to self-custody. 1.12 TRILLION dollars of real capital has been invested in Bitcoin (see chart below). This is no longer a fringe asset. But, what about the risks now that it's no longer “governments will shut it down”? The primary risk is quantum computing - and that is a risk for every digital system on Earth, not just Bitcoin. Banks, corporations, cloud providers, and governments all face the same challenge. Bitcoin is already actively discussing and preparing for this, and it is likely to adapt faster than most legacy systems. Energy is often raised as another concern, but mining is increasingly moving towards renewables. Meanwhile, AI data centres are scaling energy usage at an astronomical rate and will soon dwarf Bitcoin entirely. Energy is not a Bitcoin-specific problem. Bitcoin’s supply remains fixed. It has no true competitors. Other networks abandoned proof-of-work because they could not replicate Bitcoin’s decentralised mining and node structure. Bitcoin is uniquely tied to real-world energy and real-world cost. Nothing else compares. Bitcoin does not care about its price. Humans do. Sometimes we overprice it. Sometimes we underprice it. Right now, it looks closer to fair value or undervalued. Against a backdrop of rising debt, money printing, and institutional adoption, the long-term setup is hard to ignore. If you want to own a scarce, decentralised digital asset with no competitors and growing institutional demand, Bitcoin continues to make a strong case.

We're very pleased to welcome Albo to the @_checkonchain team as our new 47% co-owner of the business we've built! We're so very happy to take on 100% of the risk, do 100% of the work, and pay 100% of the expenses... ...and then hand over 47% of the wealth generated.

Can someone tell me how to avoid/mute vague posts on X? I can’t stand them anymore

for the first time since October 2025, Short-Term Bitcoin Holders are in profit (in aggregate). It's been a bloody long road. Now we see if their collective cost basis (~$78k) becomes a support level, confirming a bullish trend.

Last week, partnering with @unchained, I published my consolidated bear market thesis in the second edition of The Bitcoin Checkpoint. I break down why today's bear is unlikely to hit the same historical metric thresholds many analysts are looking at. tinyurl.com/btc-checkpoint…

Super stoked for this one to go live! Lots of insights to sink your teeth into as a Bitcoin investor.

I am very proud to publish the second edition of The Bitcoin Checkpoint report in partnership with @unchained. It lays out my prevailing thesis for this bear market, how we got here, how low we may go, and what bottom formation looks like mechanically. tinyurl.com/btc-checkpoint…

I've just finished writing up my second contribution to the Bitcoin quantum debate. In this piece, titled 'Selling Satoshi's Stash', I address the topic of market impact assuming a quantum attacker sells the vulnerable P2PK coins. Bitcoin will be fine. newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/selling-sato…

Windows computers be like: "Oh, you'd like to connect your Airpods to me? Hold up - let me call Steve from HQ to remote into your PC and set up that connection for you. Should only be 5 minutes"

@cryptomanran nice LLM post

For the first time in 12 years, I’m questioning Bitcoin’s thesis. It’s not the drawdown that concerns me; it’s how Bitcoin responded when markets genuinely moved into risk and uncertainty. $BTC evolved from “peer-to-peer cash” into “digital gold.” We fought for ETF approval. We fought for institutional access. We wanted it inside the system. Now it is. There is nothing to fight for anymore. So when tariffs, currency tension, and fiscal instability hit, this was the moment Bitcoin was supposed to behave like a store of value. Instead, capital ran to gold. Institutions had access. There were no barriers left. That’s the uncomfortable part. If it’s not used as cash, and it didn’t meaningfully absorb the stress bid, then what exactly is the narrative? Retail participation is near multi-year lows. Early evangelists have largely exited. Even aggressive weekly buyers can’t generate sustained momentum. That doesn’t mean Bitcoin dies. But it does mean the thesis isn’t unquestioned anymore. What’s interesting is I’m worried about Bitcoin, not crypto. Because the next wave isn’t ideological. AI agents won’t use banks. They won’t use credit cards. They’ll need instant, programmable settlement rails. That’s crypto. In my new video, I unpack why I think Bitcoin failed this cycle’s defining test and what is likely to happen next. [link in comments]

Things you see at the bottom™

nice anecdote, but I can tell you that belief is not totally gone. Your belief is gone. Stop basing your entire worldview on 300 tweets you see on your timeline.

As a guy with a long term (5+ year) time horizon for every single BTC buy, I'm choosing to be grateful for this opportunity to stack more per unit of fiat. Too many folks in BTC levered up, or bought far too much Treasury Co stock & it shows. I for one am glad I can buy larger slugs of BTC with my usual Fiat DCA, especially when it's BTC sold due to pure fear. Show me a time in history where this type of situation wasn't a good buy and I'll buy you 20x beers. Bear markets beget Bull markets. Let it ride.

Near-bottom behaviour

Bitcoin has now back-filled the $70–80k supply air-pocket. That move was fast, but structurally unsurprising - low historical volume zones tend to offer little support on the way down. - Price is now approaching the 2024 chopsolidation range, a region of dense historical demand. - Paper losses are now on par (in USD terms) with prior bear extremes. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ continues his analysis of the prevailing drawdown, and what it means in the short term given we have now largely back-filled the air-pocket --> newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/eye-of-the-s…

What's happening: More sellers than buyers. It's really that simple. Expecting infinite demand all the time for this asset is silly. DCA and chill.

Kind of tweet you see when we are near the bottom

Scrolling the X app feels more and more like gambling these days. It's getting harder and harder to find a genuinely good take / non AI-slop post on the timeline. I did a quick dive as to why it feels like this and found something interesting. The Variable Reward Loop strategy: The way X serves content to us is based on a clever mechanism called a Variable Reward Loop. They have essentially programmed a text-based gambling game where you don’t know when the next genuinely smart post will appear. Sometimes it’s 2 scrolls. Sometimes 200. But it keeps us scrolling to find the diamond in the rough. Unpredictable reward on device = human braindead scroll.

"Why isn't Bitcoin up??" Haven't you seen a bear market before? This is what it's like.