Futarchy

1/ Excited to partner with @SnapshotLabs to bring futarchy market signals directly into Snapshot. Tokenholders and delegates in participating DAOs can now see expected market impact before voting.

@gnosis_ is voting to put @_futarchy's prediction markets on every official governance proposal in a 9-month pilot - joining @Kleros_io and @VeloraDEX. GIP-145 proposes advisory markets on Snapshot showing expected $GNO price impact before voters decide. Proposed by @azsantosk, backed by co-founder @koeppelmann - "now it seems FINALLY the time is right." @_futarchy has a live market on this proposal to demonstrate the concept - pricing a +2.45% $GNO impact if the pilot passes. Already proven at @Kleros_io: 1. Voters cited market signals in their rationale to reject a proposal. 2. The DAO now requires $PNK minting proposals to show a positive futarchy signal to pass. 3. The Kleros Cooperative will "delegate a substantial amount of voting power that will vote strictly according to the Futarchy signal." Each market prices $GNO conditional on the proposal passing or failing - the percentage difference between YES and NO is the expected impact. Accuracy is measured by comparing 5-day TWAPs of each conditional token and GNO spot against the 24-hour TWAP of $GNO post-outcome. Proposal: snapshot.box/#/s:gnosis.eth… Live market: app.futarchy.fi/market?proposa…

Prediction market FUD according to brain size.

1/🧠 Futarchy market live for AAVE A futarchy market is now live to evaluate the expected impact on AAVE price if the some version of @eboadom's Alignment Proposal is approved until the end of February.

@0xNairolf 👀

this aave drama is actually the best ad for futarchy > propose a governance change > let markets price its impact > act in tokenholders best interest feels like it will become standard at some point

@Kleros_io @SEEDGov @VeloraDEX @seer_pm @SnapshotLabs It will show a chart soon!

@SEEDGov @VeloraDEX @_futarchy @seer_pm The @_futarchy widget on @SnapshotLabs looks really cool.

Should a DAO compensate losses that occurred 18 months after an exploit was already resolved? @VeloraDEX DAO is submitting its first vote under futarchy, in a decision that could redefine how DeFi protocols handle responsibility, risk, and precedent. 🧵👇

5/ If you think this proposal would be positive for VLR token price, you can now buy tokens on the "YES" market for a discount. If you think the proposal is negative for VLR, you can hedge the chance of it passing by selling VLR for a small discount. End of the thread.

4/ Currently the markets think this proposal passing would have a negative impact of 1%.

1/ PIP-75, a governance proposal for @VeloraDEX, is now live with advisory futarchy markets. The proposal is to decide whether to accept a refund from a user, related to a March 2024 vulnerability.

@curtis_yarvin Yes.

Still think “futarchy” is a good idea? youtube.com/watch?v=yIkrfd…

I've been asked: what do I think of @Kalshi & @Polymarket? These are still very early days. My vision, which I started to articulate ~1990, is of a world very different from both the world of then, and the world of today. A world where markets are accepted as offering more accurate estimates on far more useful topics. So I’m mostly interested in the potential of stuff today to enable and cause that future vision. The politics/policy questions on Polymarket and Kalshi trending now seem plausibly like topics where some people might find their estimate useful in making personal or collective choices. But I don’t have great confidence in that, or know who those people are. But if these systems continue to grow in size, and to attract users and competitors, they could lower the many costs of creating and managing such markets, allowing a lot more experimentation with markets like those I find more promising re my long term vision. Or course if these systems induce a backlash that gets them outlawed or drastically shrunk, that may plausibly block or at least long delay my vision. I don’t personally mind people having fun knowingly betting on sports, on actions that celebrities can influence, or on topics where insiders have big info advantages. But I see many people complaining about these things, and I fear a new prudish temperance movement may shut them down, and as a side effect shut down the more promising markets that I’ve envisioned. Robin Hanson

Delegates be like