Sunil S. Rawat
16.9K posts

Sunil S. Rawat
@_sunilrawat
Distributed Systems. Distributed Algorithms. Risk Management. Underwriting. Stress Testing. Econ. Bad Jokes. AI.

I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…






$NVDA DESK NOTE - NVIDIA Vera CPU: The Amdahl Argument for a Purpose-Built AI Factory CPU atlaspeakresearch.com/report/1683d7 Bottom Line: Vera is best understood as a purpose-built AI-factory CPU designed to compress the serial fraction of reasoning, tool-use, and reinforcement-learning workflows so that GPU capital does not sit idle behind CPU-bound orchestration. Its differentiation comes from five interacting features: unusually high single-thread ambition for control-heavy code, unusually high memory bandwidth per active core, deterministic full-socket behavior, coherent CPU-GPU memory via NVLink-C2C, and rack-scale power efficiency. Against that, AMD and Intel remain stronger on universality, x86 software inertia, memory capacity, and standards-based flexibility. Vera therefore looks less like a broad x86 killer and more like a specialized control-plane and environment processor that becomes highly compelling precisely where Amdahl's Law makes the CPU impossible to ignore.








Toyota knew this would sell in certain regions


Jesus fucking Christ it’s amateur hour amongst the punditry over this mine issue isn’t it? Let me tell you something, if you’ve never had to go through minefields or mined waters or hit a mine then you should consider listening to the people who have. The commentary is getting silly. Sure, they’re not “wonder weapons” … until the explosion and the massive rush of thousands of tons of sea water and that funny angle your ship takes that makes you suddenly and urgently want to take a “fear piss”. They’re the solid, proven and silent weapon that cancels insurance policies for every merchant ship in the region without ever proving they are even in the water. The US Navy is absolutely not ready for this. The four ships we had dedicated to doing this we just decommissioned. We lost all of our corporate knowledge. Now we’re running an experiment and it’s gonna cost people their lives



🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. Navy decommissioned its last specialized minesweeper ships in the Persian Gulf back in September and shipped them to America for scrapping. Now Iran's reportedly laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and the only ships available to clear them are littoral combat vessels, also known as "Little Crappy Ships," with terrible reliability issues. Some of the earliest models have already been retired after just a few years in service. They've been called one of the biggest failures in U.S. shipbuilding history. Source: CNN





We can justify what is seen in this video as innovation, technology, etc... The truth, nothing short of a miracle.


Tehran was not just another partner for Beijing; it was central to China's grand strategy. China invested over $400 billion in long-term infrastructure and energy investments in Iran, purchased roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports, and Tehran's geographical location was key to Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative. In addition, by backing militant proxies and sustaining regional instability, Tehran has kept the Middle East in constant crisis and the United States out of the Indo-Pacific. Now, a weakened, internally strained Iran can no longer function as a reliable diversionary magnet for American attention, @milesyu10 writes in @PostOpinions. Read: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/…






