Ein Steiner

@barometerca Did you adjust your stop levels now that there seems to be a lot of deliberate stops hunting going on?

The Art of the Exit: Why We Use Stop-Losses to Protect Capital At Barometer, we enter every investment with high expectations and a rigorous "good getting better" thesis. However, seasoned investing requires a healthy dose of humility: the reality is that in a basket of 20 stocks, 2 to 4 will often perform far better than anticipated, some will be "okay," and several simply won't work out. The difference between a successful portfolio and an unsuccessful one isn't just about what you buy—it’s about how you sell. 1. Let Winners Run, Cut Losses Short Our strategy is built on a simple but powerful mathematical truth: if you let your winners run and aggressively truncate your losses, you prevent small mistakes from turning into catastrophic ones. By using stop-losses, we ensure that the few "home run" stocks in the portfolio have the room to drive overall returns, while the underperformers are removed before they can do significant damage. 2. Identifying the "Inflection Point" We don’t pick stop-loss prices at random. When we enter a position, we identify a specific price level where the technical picture changes. This is the "inflection point"—the level at which our original thesis is no longer supported by the market’s price action and our odds of success fall. * At Entry: We place a stop at this inflection point to define our "risk off" level. * As the Stock Gains: As a position works out and the price moves higher, we raise our stops in a trailing fashion. This allows us to lock in profits while still giving the stock room to trend upward. 3. Removing Emotion from the Equation The hardest part of investing is the "rationalization" phase. When a stock drops, the human instinct is to hope it comes back or to find new reasons to keep holding. This is where emotion leads to expensive errors. A stop-loss is a pre-determined, unemotional decision. It takes the guesswork out of the equation. If the price hits the stop, the stock comes out of the portfolio. This discipline allows us to stay tactical, moving capital out of low-probability setups and into new ideas with a higher "breadth of advance" and better odds of success. 4. Our Mandate: Maximum Opportunity, Minimum Drag By maintaining a focused portfolio (typically 20–30 stocks), every position must "earn its keep." If a stock isn't performing, the stop-loss acts as an automatic recycling mechanism. It clears the path for us to find the next structural change or revaluation candidate that can move the needle for our clients. > The Bottom Line: We don’t have to be right 100% of the time to be successful. We just have to make sure that when we are wrong, we are wrong "small"—and when we are right, we are right "big."

@ippon_macro May I ask, what's your rationale?

Added to my $IAI position. It is by far my largest single position. The market is ready to rip!!! LfG

@DogMatixxxx @CNBC I copied you with the puts last week. I'm even considering to add more.

@cnbc is still chirping endlessly about the AI trade. Ok. Then let’s discuss $tsm Oil prices and shortages are threatening to shut down production all across the globe? Why aren’t they discussing Taiwan’s lack of LNG reserves? No discussion of AI trade if $tsm halts production

@DelB0yTr0tter I should have written 'sell or do nothing?' but you got the point anyway.

@DelB0yTr0tter Does doing nothing include holding on to current positions, like some explorers trading at a 20-40% loss, to re-enter, or literally do nothing?

US will have 55,000 boots on the ground in Middle East by Saturday. When it comes to markets this is precisely one of those times that doing nothing is the best thing to do. Let it all burn down (I say this in purely transactional terms - nothing to do with geopolitics so please do not confuse the matter) before picking up the best pieces.

@DelB0yTr0tter Go it. And, fair point. As a gentleman myself, and (yet) non-paying customer, I won't bother you with specifics.

@_va98181 I am referring to deploying capital, to be more exact. As for your question, it depends on specifics. Without specifics it would be a piss in the wind and I am a gentleman.

@Mr_Fobel Could be tomorrow's option expiry.

Genuinely, how is $CDE so weak compared to the rest of the miners? Is it the NGD crowd selling?

Here are the sequence of events. #Comex sells infinite paper #silver into early april to get the price as low as possible. $50 lets say. The US govt announce silver price floor of $100. Comex force majures and cash settles all the naked shorts for as cheap as possible.

@thesilverhermit A boring silver price is my least expected scenario.

Due to #Silver 's abrupt reversal yesterday, its consolidation pattern is not clearly defined. I'm pretty sure it's a falling wedge. But instead of a clear line, it now has an area of support as a lower boundary. I suspect than in the coming days and weeks it will continue to test this area, until it finds a more solid footing. But even after it breaks out of this wedge, it is likely to move sideways for a few months. Given the technical damage it sustained in the past few weeks, I expect it to become kind of boring for a while, as hot speculative money moves to other assets, and the smart money begins to accumulate. It will probably rally in earnest only in the 4th quarter of 2026, as the fear of deflation dissipates, and the reality of inflation sets in.

@MacroMatrix1 So, now we're heading to a gold squeeze before a silver squeeze? Public information seems to change a little too fast these days.

🚨 China Metals Signal (Mar 23 → Mar 24) After a brutal crash… we get a bounce. Silver: +2% to +5% Pd/Pt: +3% to +5% Gold: flat BUT HERE’S THE CATCH 👇 📦 SHFE vaults ↑ +1,374 kg 📦 SGE weekly ↑ +24,660 kg ➡️ Prices up, inventory up = NOT real demand This is a short-covering rally, not a trend reversal. Watch for next leg movement👀 #Silver #Gold #Commodities #China #Macro

@DVSignals No worries. It always takes a little time to figure out the format. It's the analysis that counts mostly anyway. But these public 'notifications' might be helpful until you've moved.

Thanks for the feedback. For now, this is the main thread to watch for trading alerts. As mentioned, this is still a free pilot, and that is also why I’ll move it to Discord shortly for a cleaner user experience. So bear with me for now and just keep an eye on this thread (or the "New Pick" for stock picks)

Something seems to be brewing in the precious metals market... I just posted a trading alert in the alerts section on Substack..

@Jtrevw Not being easy, is certainly my experience too! Your posts have been helpful as they often seem to confirm my own assessment of short term sentiment / direction changes. But to turn it into a profitable trade is yet another game. So, even post-trade picks are much appreciated!

@_va98181 No worries! I keep things simple b/c I’m hyperfocused on making right calls & then trading them in a way so I can profit. Simple but not easy! Unfortunately I can’t post many trades b/c I change my mind a lot, sometimes within minutes. I mainly post updates & thoughts on the mkt

I’m going short miners again. Hope it goes well.

@Jtrevw Thanks for your thoughts. You seem to do well by keeping things rather simple. Would love to see more posts of your trades!

@_va98181 Sorry, I don’t focus on microcaps. In the past I have done research on them. They usually have a good story like Largo LGO (the only pure play vanadium miner), but they never end up making any money. They are heavily speculative and their stock tend toward zero in the long run.

@Jtrevw Not a miner, but what do you think of AVN / helium at current price?

Closed at a loss ~$10k . I should’ve stayed out of it. It was a weak set up. This is where the chop tries to take back any profits.

@ralphkaz Doesn't it matter why it bounces?

$GOLD with a powerful bounce off the 200dma (yellow) and white fork. Back to top of fork could be next?!? $GLD

@DVSignals I value your analyses. What I'm struggling to understand, is how the price could stay around 70 and without COMEX etc not being raided unless the price of physical shoots up and pulls the paper price back up with it. Any thoughts on that?

$SILVER A print with a 69 handle after that kind of impulsive flush does not exactly strengthen the case that 71–72 will hold cleanly over the coming weeks. If anything, it weakens that support zone structurally and increases the odds that what used to be support starts acting more like an overhead problem on rebounds... That said, on the 2-4H I also would not automatically assume that this first hard push lower just keeps cascading immediately. A reflex bounce back toward 71–72 (and higher) still makes sense to me, and it could be fairly violent given how stretched this is intraday. Even if we do bounce, this tape does not bode well for the medium-term structure. That keeps 64–65 very live, and below that, the broader low- to mid-50s roadmap remains very much on the table.

@65_pastek @DVSignals Divide gold spot by silver spot.

@DVSignals Can you explain how the ratio works?

$GOLD / $SILVER trending higher. Remember who warned you about this setup weeks in advance..

@GoldForecast It seems the market could use an updated chart with updated AISC. Would you have one?

I think people need colors to understand things.😹 The starship Enterprise is currently in the 4X bingo zone ($86 silver and $5200 gold).🎲♠️🎯 $SAM.TO

@Jtrevw Insightful! Thanks for sharing your reasoning.

@_va98181 Today really doesn’t look good for it. It’s too small a company for me to consider. It’s gambling… which usually means you lose money in the long run. It could be worse than gambling; it could be a pump and dump. I would far stay away from it.

Closed all positions. Here’s where we’re at on the day: