Fergal O'Connor

Just Published: The Efficiency of the London Gold Fixing: from #gold standard to hoarded commodity (1919-68). Paper shows the daily price of gold for the first time and discusses the 4 phases of this market: 2 Free markets & 2 Gold Standard periods. cambridge.org/core/journals/…

Lovely to chat with @AJDemas about gold and silvers record year @thedispatch "What’s Behind Gold’s Rally?" thedispatch.com/newsletter/mor… @CUBSucc @UCC

The Financial News has this as a type of uncertainty barometer on its front page in the top left through the 1920s. Love that one of the market conditions was "Dull."

@JanGold_ This is a great quote!

Bitcoin was created by mankind and can be destroyed by mankind. Gold cannot. It’s as simple as that.

@TaviCosta Gold and silver prices are available back to the 1200’s.

For the first time in 338 years of recorded data, the gold-to-silver ratio has remained more than 2.6 standard deviations above its long-term mean for over five years.   How does this ultimately resolve?   A sharp correction in this ratio is highly likely, in my view.   We have yet to see a decisive breakout above the previous two peaks   Here is an important reminder that triple tops rarely hold.

@richohagan @UCC @CUBSucc Agree to disagree, in a longer form piece I could have done more on bitcoins positive aspects but I stick by the main thrust of the article which is that 1) central bank and 2) consumer demand mean that gold is unique and IMHO a better investment.

Good piece Fergal but not all that balanced. You put a lot of emphasis on a "fall back" value, and gold's alternate (non-monetary) sources of demand. I think an important framing is which asset is a superior fall-back if people lost faith in the dollar (and fiar currency generally). While you correctly point out gold's established history and other vantages over Bitcoin, to write a balanced article would have required an acknowledgement that Bitcoin has superior monetary properties. From a objective standpoint, it is better poised to become money in the longer term. The periods chosen for comparison merely emphasise the bias. Agree with a lot of what you said though, really just have an issue with the framing and the absensce of a Bitcoin steelman in the equation!

Lots to talk about in the #Gold market ATM with record prices, steep sell-offs and prices holding above $4,000 so far. Some thoughts from me here in relation to this and the dissimilarities between Gold and Bitcoin. @UCC @CUBSucc rte.ie/brainstorm/202…

@Rory_Shamrock @UCC @CUBSucc New supply of gold is 1.5% of stock PA - unsure of the number for bitcoin, but they both have very small flow vs stock. Not bias. Mining is not the factor that drives these prices-they are price takers as researched here (by me in case that is also bias): sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

@a_fergal @UCC @CUBSucc Not one mention of supply in the entire article. Dogshit bias

@ConorMcAleavey @UCC @CUBSucc @bullionvault They do, but in response to price adn the change is not significant - only about 1.5% of the total stock is mined each year so even if they push production its not going to be even 2%.

@a_fergal @UCC @CUBSucc @bullionvault Agree Stock-To-Flow is low in both cases but you don't think miners increase production when gold prices sore?

@ConorMcAleavey @UCC @CUBSucc @bullionvault Gold miners are price takers, see a paper I did-they follow the price, not the other way around. It's a similar issue for bitcoin - the stock is massive relative to flow of gold or bitcoin.Recycling & sales from vaulted gold a more elastic form of supply. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

@a_fergal @UCC @CUBSucc @bullionvault As price of G goes up the flow of new G (mined) onto market goes up also, which in turn puts downward pressure on price. New mined BTC always sticks to the same schedule regardless of price due to difficulty adjustment.

@nialljburke @ConorMcAleavey @UCC @CUBSucc @bullionvault Bitcoin is another asset people should hold in a diversified portfolio, as they should hold gold. But gold is unique due to its significant physical sources of demand and long-run central bank holdings. And to me, that makes gold more robust long term.

At the heart of this you see "trusted 3rd parties" as a fundamental element of a gold investment, where +90% is paper and leveraged, and it's here where bitcoin is unique in the modern digital age - a scarce, verifiable and trustless store of value, with peer to peer instantly portable.

@CryptoChuu @UCC @CUBSucc Jewellery and central bank holdings are what make gold different to bitcoin, diverse sources of demand - that's my main point. Gold and Bitcoin both have ETFs so they are the same to me in that regrard.

@a_fergal @UCC @CUBSucc If you rely on a centralized storage company to hold and move your gold. You need permission. You mentioned gold etf purchased but failed to mention that 60b has poured into BTC ETFs since launching. What's the point in a comparison where your main point is you like jewelery

@ConorMcAleavey @UCC @CUBSucc Gold is easily divisible-go to @bullionvault or similar companies and you can but small amounts. You can sell gold from anywhere as long as you havent taken delivery, so it is instantly portable with a vaulting company or an ETF, not sure what you mean on the price inelasticity.

@a_fergal @UCC @CUBSucc Good article Fergal, almost all accurate. However, while you spoke about aspects of G that make it so good you didn't cover the aspects of BTC that are better than G. Would G not be even better if it was more easily divisible, instantly portable, had price inelasticity of demand?

@JanGold_ There was a London gold futures contract briefly in the 1930s

London gold association calls for city to revive plans for futures contract ft.com/content/172210…

Whenever gold comes up someone quickly says Keynes called it a "barbarous relic" (ft.com/content/97fd4d… @lesliehook @iankmsmith), but he was referring to the Gold Standard. So are central banks ignoring this and heading for a new gold standard with all these purchases? 5/n

A growth perspective explains why gold's annualised returns have been 8% over 50 years. CB demand in the last 3 years has also been broad-based, with not just Asian banks adding to demand, but also major purchases from Poland and with even Ireland doubling its gold reserves. 4/n

& a simple model trying to explain gold prices with real rates & the dollar has stopped being useful. Gold rising today (back up over $3,070) while even US treasuries fall shows that it's THE uncorrelated asset for crises 2/4

Radio show is here, rte.ie/radio/radio1/m…, with #gold discussed at about 49mins. @UCC @CUBSucc

Delighted to get interviewed by @morningireland this morning, article summarising what we chatted about here “Gold prices rise to near record high as US tariffs loom” rte.ie/news/ireland/2… @UCC @CUBSucc @EithneDodd