Aaron Jakes
4.3K posts
@aaronjakes
Associate professor @UChicagoHistory and @UChicagoCEGU. "Egypt's Occupation: Colonial Economism and the Crises of Capitalism," out with @stanfordpress.
Rubio: This is a regime led by people who believe it is their calling and their purpose in life to usher in the end of the world.
Israel’s strategy is no longer focused on deterrence and diplomacy, it’s about dominance and degradation. Nathan J. Brown writes. carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/di…
🚨 BREAKING: The European Commission has urged people to work from home, drive and fly less, and for EU countries to urgently roll out renewables, as it warned of a prolonged energy crisis as a result of the conflict in the Gulf. Full story: politico.eu/article/europe…
This is pretty ironic: Goldman Sachs estimates that the US economy will be *twice* more affected (negatively) than the Chinese economy by the oil supply shock. "The Chinese economy appears better positioned amid the oil supply shock than its global peers [...] Due to the oil shock, our economists have trimmed China's real GDP growth forecast by 20bps compared to 40bps for the US"
Self-Suez
How Iran’s Leadership Views the Current Negotiations A. In Tehran, the very fact that the U.S. is engaging in negotiations is seen as proof that Iran’s strategy of resistance is working. From their perspective, Washington came to the table because pressure failed to break them. B. At the same time, the regime remains deeply suspicious of U.S. intentions and assumes deception is possible. As a result, Iran is simultaneously reinforcing its regional deterrence posture. The role of the Houthis is particularly important here, they are likely to escalate significantly if the U.S. takes direct military action, such as seizing or striking strategic islands. C. Iran is not seeking an open-ended war, but it has no intention of compromising on core principles. These include: credible guarantees to prevent future conflict, economic compensation, and recognition formal or de facto of its influence over the Strait of Hormuz. D. The prospects for an agreement at this stage are extremely low. This is not only due to gaps in positions, but also a fundamental mismatch in perception. The U.S. administration appears to believe Iran is weakened and therefore more likely to concede. Iran, however, believes it has performed relatively well under pressure and sees no reason to back down. E. A viable agreement would likely require a shift in the U.S. approach: scaling back maximalist demands such as dismantling Iran’s missile infrastructure or narrowing the focus to the nuclear file or pursuing a limited arrangement around maritime security, or adopting a phased framework that builds trust incrementally. F. As long as the current regime remains in power, it is unlikely to accept terms it perceives as capitulation. If forced to choose, it will likely prefer continued confrontation over a deal that undermines its core strategic posture. #IranWar
BREAKING: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has told the United States to condemn the bombing of Iranian universities by noon Monday Tehran time or face retaliation against American university campuses across the Gulf. The IRGC statement, published by Iranian media and quoted by AFP per the Times of Israel, reads: “If the US government wants its universities in the region to be free from retaliation, it must condemn the bombing of the universities in an official statement by 12 noon on Monday, March 30, Tehran time.” The statement warns all employees, professors, and students at American universities in the region to stay one kilometre away from campuses. TASS reports the critical detail most outlets missed: the IRGC said two universities in the Middle East will be destroyed regardless of Washington’s response. The condemnation deadline only determines whether more than two are targeted. This is not a conditional threat. It is a guaranteed strike with a conditional escalation clause. CNN geolocated video showing the Iran University of Science and Technology in Tehran in ruins after overnight strikes on Friday. A research centre was demolished with twisted metal and debris littering the site. The university confirmed US-Israeli strikes damaged the building but reported no casualties. A second university, Isfahan University of Technology, was also hit per Iranian media. Here are the American campuses now explicitly at risk. Qatar’s Education City hosts six US branch campuses: Texas A&M University, Carnegie Mellon University, Georgetown University, Northwestern University, Virginia Commonwealth University, and Weill Cornell Medicine. Thousands of students and faculty, many US citizens, study and work there. The UAE hosts NYU Abu Dhabi with approximately 2,200 students, the American University of Sharjah, the American University in Dubai, and Rochester Institute of Technology Dubai. Bahrain hosts the American University of Bahrain. Saudi Arabia has early-stage US university partnerships including KAUST. These campuses have already shifted to remote learning per CNN. The IRGC has told everyone within a kilometre radius to evacuate. Here is what makes this the war’s most dangerous escalation. Every previous Iranian target has been military or energy infrastructure: PSAB, Ras Laffan, Fujairah oil tanks, Jebel Ali port, Bahrain’s aluminium plant, desalination facilities. Those targets fit the logic of retaliation against the war machine. Universities do not. A missile aimed at NYU Abu Dhabi or Texas A&M Qatar crosses the line from military retaliation into civilian targeting of a kind that no Gulf air defence interception rate can fully prevent. One missile through an 85 percent interception wall kills students, not soldiers. The IRGC framing is explicit: these are not random civilian targets. They are chosen because America struck Iranian universities first. The logic is symmetrical: you destroyed our research centres, we will destroy yours. But the Iranian universities housed IRGC-linked missile and drone research labs per WSJ and FDD. The American campuses in Qatar host journalism students and pre-med programmes. The symmetry is false. The threat is real. The deadline is noon Monday March 30 Tehran time. That is 08:30 UTC. That is 04:30 Eastern. By the time most Americans wake up tomorrow morning, the deadline will have already passed. The IRGC has promised two strikes regardless. And as of this writing, the White House has not responded. The Pentagon has not responded. No condemnation has been issued. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
