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FIAT Bear 🐻🇸🇪
21.8K posts
FIAT Bear 🐻🇸🇪
@abl_trader
Value and momentum investing. Chart addict. Precious metals bull. M.D. Sharing observations, not recommendations! DYODD. #gold #silver #canslim 🍳 🥩🍺🇸🇪
Katılım Kasım 2011
1.1K Takip Edilen2K Takipçiler
Varit på börsen i nästan 40 år (började på mellanstadiet). 2026 har varit bland de enklaste åren att slå index. Ai var enkel trend att identifiera, och även oljerelaterat vid första tecken på orolighet i Iran. Men nu känns det åter svårt. Vad ska man nu rotera in i.
GIF
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FIAT Bear 🐻🇸🇪 retweetledi
I love this 1 year #silver chart with volatility contraction before expected new rally. 👀 #constructive $wpm $slv $silj
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FIAT Bear 🐻🇸🇪 retweetledi
Five "deal" announcements, zero closed (yet). That's a trend. Sell the tweet, buy the molecule. Iran's leverage increases with every day that passes and inventories decline, while it decreases for the West.
Thank you to @SquawkCNBC Asia for having me on this morning. Attached is the clip: 50 years of efficiency made oil cheaper per unit of GDP but more irreplaceable in function -- it is the rare earth of the macro system.
cnbc.com/video/2026/05/…
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FIAT Bear 🐻🇸🇪 retweetledi
FIAT Bear 🐻🇸🇪 retweetledi
The fact that @CommodMkt still has fewer X followers than I have by itself disproves the Efficient Markets Hypothesis!
Clue in, Wake Up, Follow Jeff. It's that simple. You're doing yourself a major disservice if you haven't followed Jeff yet.
I suppose the other explanation would be that I have more followers because I'm better looking, but somehow I don't think that's it! 🤣
Jeffrey Currie 🆔++@CommodMkt
@robin_j_brooks your comments below reveal a profound lack of understanding of the oil market. Commodity futures price inventory, NOT expectations. That isn't ideology; it's a fact grounded in the economics of carry. The Brent price in your graph is not a risk anyone can actually hold — it's a spot contract stitched together at each expiry. In normal times that's a fair proxy; these are not normal times. Construct a series an investor could truly hold — a rolled BCOM index, or the USO ETF — and the picture inverts: it slopes hard up and to the right, consistent with the largest supply shock in history. USO keeps climbing because the shortage is showing up in the futures curve — not in the headline price on the screen. The carry pays an investor nearly 50% a year, even if the price of oil never moves. The SPR was drawn down before commercial inventories — when it is normally the other way round. Strategic stocks are meant to be the last line of defence, not the first, but this time Washington spent them first, managing headlines not risk. When you have no crude in storage, THEN and only then will the spot price move to a level to destroy demand. I have no idea if it is 150, or 200, or 250. The observed indication from Asia is ~200.
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FIAT Bear 🐻🇸🇪 retweetledi
BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump's claim that Hormuz "will be opened" as part of a "largely negotiated" agreement he just posted on Truth Social, saying Trump's claim is "far from the truth" and that Hormuz "will remain under Iranian management" with Iran retaining exclusive permanent authority over route, timing, method, and permits, per Fars.
Iran also confirms the nuclear file has not been discussed and that American officials themselves have told Iran in multiple messages that "Trump's tweets are primarily for domestic American propaganda and media consumption" and "should be disregarded." The "largely negotiated" deal claim therefore has no basis.
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@tradewithmrp Får trösta mig mig utdelningarna i så fall 😂 #bagholderquotes
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Bull flags in #copper and #oil stocks imo. Bull trends not broken imo. 👀🔥
Probably more chopping to be expected in the #preciousmetals before new established uptrend but I would rather accumulate than sell.
I expect broad commodity strength for the foreseeable future.
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FIAT Bear 🐻🇸🇪 retweetledi
No change for my Silver expectations from 1 month ago. Once consolidation has finalised, this will really motor, hard.
Simon@sich8
On Silver's Weekly, you can see how the 2 Bollinger Bands are shaping and funnelling price towards the drawn box. The next 3+ months will act as refuelling for Silver.
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You cannot print molecules. You cannot print the rigs $BORR that lift them either.
In a gold rush, the money isn't in the gold. It's in the picks and shovels.
Shale is likely finished as a source of growth. The remaining short-cycle barrels now sit in shallow water — and the Middle East has spent fifteen years drilling its way offshore as its onshore fields deplete. Saudi, the UAE, Qatar: all the growth is offshore now.
That barrel needs one thing above all else: a jack-up fleet. However, there are zero new orders and zero new-yard slots for years. Unsurprisingly the global fleet only shrinks — a third of the rigs on the water are over thirty years old and aging out. At $BORR they average seven. A newbuild theoretically costs $300m, and the dayrates haven’t come close to justifying one — rates must double, and lengthen, before a single rig gets ordered.
Now layer the demand. The buyers are National Oil Companies (NOCs) in countries GDP is heavily exposed to the barrel — the most inelastic clients in any market. The fleet was already above 90% utilized and rising before the war. After the fighting stops: pent-up Gulf tenders, field declines to offset, shut wells to bring back. And the order book already tells you where this goes — energy-security pushing work in Vietnam, Malaysia, Suriname, Gabon.
The security premium is no longer theoretical. It’s in the contracts. Either Hormuz reopens and pent-up demand from Saudi Arabia and the UAE skyrockets, or oil pushes into uncharted territory and the international NOCs pick up the tab.
Few other energy assets are this exposed to both tails. Low-breakeven shallow-water barrels are the supply the world needs to meet the coming crunch. And pick-and-shovel maker gets paid whether or not the miner strikes.
Now the part the market is missing. The whole enterprise trades at roughly forty cents on the cost of replacing its own steel. Enterprise value is about $4bn, split almost evenly — half debt, half equity. The debt is fixed. It does not re-rate. So every dollar the fleet gains as it runs toward newbuild parity falls straight through to the equity.
That is the engine. The debt does not move; the steel does. Re-rate the fleet to what it would cost to rebuild, and the equity does not double — it quadruples. The equity does not track the steel. It multiplies it. The 4x leverage is not the risk in this trade. In the upcycle, the 4x is the trade.
You can buy an irreplaceable strategic asset at less than half its replacement cost — with the leverage thrown in for free. The market is selling the quarter. We're buying the decade.
$BORR is down 14% today on a delayed rig start-up and a one-time receivable provision — operational noise, not structural damage. Utilization held at 97%. Full-year coverage rose to 71%, and the back half of the year jumped from 48% to 65% booked. Nothing in the supply, the demand, or the steel has changed.
The one thing that did move — the Middle East conflict — barely touched the financials and made the multi-year case stronger. Every affected rig is back at work. Tenders keep progressing. Management is more confident on 2027 and 2028, not less.
The market is selling the noise and ignoring the signal. The dislocation is the entry.
Get long. Buckle In. HALO.
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@Andreas44444444 Nä självklart finns det stora risker men jag caset är intressant som spekulation men man bör nog inte lägga hela kapitalet i denna... de fick väl support från amerikanska staten ganska nyligen vilket ändå är någon form av trygghet kan man tycka..
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@abl_trader Antingen är bolaget helt fel prissatt eller så är det skyhöga risker. Kommer dom bara igång så borde inte silverpriset spela så stor roll, det kostar ju inget ta upp metallerna.
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