Armando Braun

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Armando Braun

Armando Braun

@abramona

*Liking is bookmarking*

Brooklyn or Buenos Aires Katılım Ocak 2010
638 Takip Edilen295 Takipçiler
Armando Braun
Armando Braun@abramona·
@SvenNordenstam Oh yeah, Don Julio, El Preferido, El Pobre Luis, La Brigada... and many more under the hood!
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Sven Nordenstam
Sven Nordenstam@SvenNordenstam·
Hej från Berlin. Hälsotallriken på Asador (=Stekare på spanska) får högsta betyg. Argentinskt Fleisch. Weltklasse!
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Armando Braun
Armando Braun@abramona·
@FerMenendez2508 @CristianGeo7 Logistica pura. La arena de Catamarca es todavia mejor, pero no tenes la red de camiones con cargas de vuelta hacia Catamarca. Desde ER van con arena y vuelven con cargas desde la pampa, olavarria y muchos otros lugares a BA.
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Fernando Menéndez 🇦🇷
Fernando Menéndez 🇦🇷@FerMenendez2508·
@CristianGeo7 Muy bueno. Me dicen aca que llevan la arena desde Entre Rios. Tiene que ser una arena especial? por que no desde la Patagonia, La pampa o el oeste de Bs As?
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Cristian Geo
Cristian Geo@CristianGeo7·
🛢️🇦🇷 Fracking de Vaca Muerta explicado en 5 minutos:
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Podcast Notes 🗒️
Podcast Notes 🗒️@podcastnotes·
A Navy SEAL reads it. A Fortune 500 CEO reads it. A chess grandmaster reads it. None of them play tennis. The Inner Game of Tennis by W. Timothy Gallwey is the best performance psychology book ever written. 10 quotes that prove it:
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scuttleblurb
scuttleblurb@scuttleblurb·
my paid sub retention (substack only). just horrendous
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Nicholas Fabiano, MD
Nicholas Fabiano, MD@NTFabiano·
Congratulations on your failure, most people don’t even try. The more you lose, the more you win.
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Dario Epstein
Dario Epstein@DarioEpstein·
En el preciso momento que DT dio un ultimatum a Iran de destruir sus centrales eléctricas el #BTC cayo a 68K. Pregunta: Porque es tan importante Iran en el precio del Bitcoin?
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Brandon Jakobson
Brandon Jakobson@bjakobson11·
My family in Israel sent this.. insane, but as a tech enthusiast, the Iron Dome is so cool
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Marcelo P. Lima
Marcelo P. Lima@MarceloLima·
Pmarca's favorite character is Joe Pike, an ex-Marine and Vietnam vet who has red arrows pointing forward tattooed on his deltoids. Why? Because he believes in always moving forward and never looking back:
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Armando Braun
Armando Braun@abramona·
@ScrumESPN como nadie habla de la locura de chessum de no apoyar abajo de los palos. Se corta solo y apoya en cualquier lado y erran la patada y nadie dice nada. Pasa muy seguido.
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Miguel A Boggiano del 55,6%
Miguel A Boggiano del 55,6%@Miguel_Boggiano·
Me parece un disparate que en el último clip de Pergolini y Aquino estén haciendo apología de la droga. Ese es el mensaje para los más chicos? Que es canchero fumar marihuana?
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Armando Braun
Armando Braun@abramona·
In Argentina, it’s MELI or MELI for shopping. There’s no N.2. For payments and fintech there’s more competition because there are more needs: Paying for services, receiving money from aborad, gaining interest, staying “outside” of the system, accessing credit, etc. Some platforms choose one over the other and drive the margin to the bottom.
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Drew Cohen
Drew Cohen@DrewCohenMoney·
Curious if I have any South American followers that have used Mercado Libre and/or Shopee. What platform do you prefer? Do you use both, but for different things?
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Armando Braun
Armando Braun@abramona·
@ToddWenning It shouldn't. That's a good sign. Though it is hard to get used to, I hope we will be enjoying his letters soon.
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Todd Wenning
Todd Wenning@ToddWenning·
Fine letter from Abel. Just not the same, is it?
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Cal Leveen
Cal Leveen@CalgaryLeveen·
@Degen_CPA My daily commute is through South Williamsburg 🧧
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Degen CPA
Degen CPA@DrewVento·
Just seen a Hasidic Jew. That’s one week of good financial luck
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Pierpaolo Barbieri
Pierpaolo Barbieri@pbarbieri·
Buen día. Hoy 9 reuniones. Y mucho Claude Code en el medio.
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Armando Braun
Armando Braun@abramona·
As a user, Chess turned me into a paid sub. I spent almost 8 months and completed all sections. Now there’s nothing else for me to do. I don’t want to learn another language, math isn’t fun yet…. Cancelled the subscription and use the free tier to play a match once a day. Crazy that they run out of content in the AI era.
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Drew Cohen
Drew Cohen@DrewCohenMoney·
“I don't think AI apps or AI translation are the real threat. My concern is simply why growth has slowed so much.” $DUOL -23%
Drew Cohen@DrewCohenMoney

The thing I don't get about Duolingo has nothing to do with AI. The market sees a stock that's down or thinks there's some tenuous AI risk, and that drove the sell-off (imo). I don't think AI apps or AI translation are the real threat. My concern is simply why growth has slowed so much. For context, they guided bookings to about 20%, or half of prior revenue growth. CEO Luis von Ahn says it was purposeful: 1) curtailing "unhinged" marketing and 2) focusing more on product development and teaching efficiency. The first reason suggests their marketing was problematic for the brand long-term or had stopped working as it once did. I don't fully understand this, but I don't see how it's positive. The second should be a cost pressure, and it's unclear why it would impact topline—unless it ties to the energy issue (explained below). My suspicion is they noticed something in engagement numbers that signaled longer-term churn risk, so they focused more on engagement. The energy system they introduced (which penalizes you even for correct answers) seems to have hurt them more than appreciated. It limited time spent on the app, hoping to push users to higher-priced tiers with unlimited energy. Some users report the energy system reverting to the old heart system, suggesting this change was an issue. You can spin that as positive—it's a reversible decision if it was problematic. Or it's proof that users' willingness to spend is fairly limited. Duolingo Wrapped data showed the top 10% of users spend just 2–2.5 minutes a day on the app. This shows the vast majority aren't deeply attached. Increasing engagement and deploying AI for more A/B tests, features, and courses could change this. But it appears the app as it stands has a value prop problem, which is the real reason they guided bookings down. They are still growing, though. And with the stock down ~80% since May, it materially resets the assumptions an investor needs to make. They now trade at 20x trailing FCF (loaded for SBC). This valuation only makes sense if they continue on a trajectory of growth—but slowing growth isn't out of the question. With 135M MAUs and simple churn assumptions, it's possible they've burned through over 500M users who downloaded the app, tried it, and left. These users aren't likely to redownload just because they see an "unhinged" marketing post—which may explain why they curtailed that marketing (at least in Western markets). They now need a new message to win users back. Doesn't mean they can't do it, but the old formula is changing. The stock sell off may be attributed to AI, but I think their set back is more prosiac--growing at high rates becomes harder the larger you get. And markets can become saturated. But again, at 20x, you need to assume far less in order to make the math work. $DUOL

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BuccoCapital Bloke
BuccoCapital Bloke@buccocapital·
Imagine looking at this chart and then thinking building the front-end of the app was the hard part of scaling a multi-sided marketplace
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The Figen
The Figen@TheFigen_·
The best feint in history. 😂
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