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acceler8future

acceler8future

@acceler8future

Elon, Tesla, $TSLA and 🚀 future Replies - Conservatives, Arsenal and more

Somewhere near London Katılım Şubat 2024
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acceler8future
acceler8future@acceler8future·
Try reading this without thinking about $LPK LPKF and microLEDs ($KOPN and $FABC?). It’s impossible! The memory wall isn’t going away anytime soon assuming the extra memory is connected by light.
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Jukan@jukan05

Breaking the "Memory Wall": Optical Interconnects Emerge in GPU–HBM Packaging As a solution to the "memory wall," one of the chronic challenges in AI semiconductors, the memory and packaging industries at home and abroad are weighing an approach that decouples the GPU and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and packages them separately. The core idea is to move the HBM—until now mounted right next to the GPU—a certain distance away, and bridge the gap with light (optics), allowing several times more HBM to be installed than is possible today. On the 22nd, a researcher at a major domestic memory maker said, "We're currently struggling to expand HBM bandwidth and capacity, so we're discussing with customers a plan to overcome the GPU's shoreline limit through optical interconnects and mount more HBM." Shoreline refers to the length of the chip's perimeter. In today's AI computing environment, the key factor dragging down compute efficiency is the data transfer speed of memory chips. While GPU performance has grown by leaps and bounds with each generation, the speed at which memory stores and supplies data has failed to keep pace—creating a structural performance barrier, the memory wall. The arrival of HBM, with its wide data pathways, put out the immediate fire, but critics continue to point out that bandwidth and transfer speeds still fall short of handling the explosive growth in AI compute. Until now, the industry has focused on stacking HBM ever higher to increase memory capacity and bandwidth within a confined footprint. But as stack counts climbed past 12 and 16 layers toward 20 and beyond, process difficulty rose exponentially. The technology hit physical limits, including the growing difficulty of meeting fixed height specifications. Vertical stacking has reached an inflection point—so much so that the JEDEC standards body has relaxed its HBM height specifications. The bigger problem is that if stack counts can't be raised, the alternative is to add more HBM horizontally around the GPU—but that, too, is impossible. In the current 2.5D packaging structure, the GPU and HBM are mounted tightly together on a single substrate. Within this structure, the number of HBM units that can be placed is strictly limited by the finite length of the GPU chip's perimeter—its shoreline. Even when more HBM is desired, there is physically no room to place it, leaving the industry in a structural deadlock. The alternative now emerging across the semiconductor industry is to separate the GPU and HBM and package them independently. It overturns the conventional chip-design principle that components must sit close together to minimize data transfer time. Instead of keeping the two chips adjacent, the approach spaces them apart and links them with overwhelmingly fast optical signals to overcome the added physical distance. Placing the HBM slightly away from the GPU within the board frees the design from the GPU's shoreline constraint. With the spatial limitation gone, far more HBM can be spread out laterally and packed into the board—several times more than today—without having to push stack heights to extremes. This means the total memory capacity and data bandwidth of the AI accelerator system would expand dramatically, on a scale incomparable to current systems. "Discussing Placing HBM Beneath the GPU"… Form Factor Could Change The industry is now producing a range of architectural design proposals over where exactly to place the HBM within the GPU board. The same memory researcher said, "Options under discussion range from broadly utilizing the space immediately around the GPU to isolating the HBM beneath the GPU board." He added, "In the latter case—isolating it beneath the GPU board—the motherboard would have to be extended lengthwise, so we're discussing even an overall form-factor change with the GPU maker." Specifically, the HBM might surround the GPU from several centimeters away, or a separate HBM zone might be created in the center of the board. "We're keeping every possibility open as we discuss the optimal layout," he said. "Nothing has been confirmed as an official roadmap yet, but as part of preliminary research toward next-generation AI accelerators, we're in talks with our partners." The outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) industry is also watching this trend closely. An executive at a global OSAT firm said, "Optical interconnects are a clear trajectory. The only question is timing," predicting that "rack-to-rack and server-to-server links will go optical first, and then chip-to-chip connections within the board will follow." He added, "The larger units will be connected by light first, but optical research is moving so fast that it may not be that far off." Technically, the optical-interconnect technology linking GPU and HBM shares the same underlying principle as the technology connecting server to server inside a data center. The difference is the high technical barrier of shrinking optical-conversion technology—once used for communication between large pieces of equipment—down to the microscopic scale of a single board and chipset. An executive at a domestic developer of co-packaged optics (CPO) components explained, "As HBM stack heights approach their limit, the industry is discussing spreading the memory out laterally to maximize how much can physically be mounted." He added, "The principle is the same as conventional data-center optical interconnects, but HBM optical links that have to operate within a confined board space require optical components to be miniaturized to far smaller sizes and far higher integration density—so the technical difficulty is greater."

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acceler8future
acceler8future@acceler8future·
Reasons to buy Samsung stock increases weekly. Remember they will be building AI5 and AI6.
Jukan@jukan05

Samsung Electronics Achieves World's First "900-Layer V-NAND"… Countdown to the 1,000-Layer Era Samsung Electronics has become the world's first to successfully implement a prototype of 900-layer-class V-NAND technology, taking another step toward the era of "1,000-layer NAND." Amid intensifying layer-count competition with rivals, the achievement is being seen as Samsung securing a decisive technological lead in a single leap. According to the semiconductor industry on the 25th, Samsung recently realized an integrated 900-layer-class V-NAND system using "Cell Multi Bonding (CMB)" technology, which joins two 450-layer cell wafers into one. NAND flash, which stores data, is a core component in AI servers, smartphones, and data center storage (SSDs). Much like stacking floors in an apartment building, the higher the layer count, the more capacity can be packed into a limited chip footprint, allowing more data to be stored while maximizing power efficiency. It is regarded as a key technology for winning dominance in the AI server and on-device AI markets, where high-capacity, high-efficiency components are essential. In the current mass-production market, SK hynix holds the highest layer count with its 321-layer 4D NAND. However, Samsung—while preparing for mass production of its 10th-generation V-NAND (V10, 400+ layers) this year—has at the same time vaulted to the 900-layer mark at the research stage, positioning itself advantageously in the next-generation NAND market. Regarding these research results, Samsung stated that "normal cell operation characteristics were verified," emphasizing that this goes beyond mere theoretical stacking to demonstrate a level of capability that actually functions. Since commercializing 3D V-NAND for the first time in the world in 2013, Samsung has continuously evolved its processes to overcome stacking limits. In the past, it used a "single-stack" method of drilling and stacking fine holes in a single pass, but as layer counts rose, it ran into physical limitations such as wafer warpage and alignment errors. In implementing the 900-layer device, Samsung resolved wafer warpage—the biggest obstacle—by adopting an advanced upper chuck design. Misalignment errors that occur during bonding were overcome with its proprietary "new overlay correction" technology. Newly introduced bitline (BL) and wordline (WL) structures also delivered meaningful gains, simultaneously reducing power consumption and chip size. Globally, China—led by Yangtze Memory (YMTC)—is chasing Korean firms at the threshold of 300-layer-class NAND mass production. With government support and the localization of equipment, it is pursuing capacity expansion and technological advancement at the same time. If YMTC succeeds in mass-producing 300-plus layers within the year, price competition could intensify and pressure Korean firms' profitability. For this reason, Samsung's 900-layer achievement is highly regarded as a strategic move to build a technological barrier over the medium-to-long term. An industry official said, "900-layer NAND technology is not simply three times 300 layers—it is a technology that changes the paradigm of the stacking process," adding, "It sends global customers the message that Samsung remains the technology leader, and it will have the effect of limiting Chinese firms' volume and price offensive."

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Arsenal Touchline
Arsenal Touchline@Afc_ArsenalX1·
Give Gabriel Jesus 1 more year at Arsenal Yes or NO?
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
Grok foundation model V9-Medium (1.5T) has finished training. Evals look good. A lot of Cursor data was added in supplementary training and there is more to come. Fine-tuning is underway and reinforcement learning begins in a few days. 2 to 3 weeks to public release. This will be a major improvement over the 0.5T v8-small that currently serves all Grok production traffic, especially for difficult coding tasks.
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Anish Moonka
Anish Moonka@anishmoonka·
A male bee mates for less than 5 seconds in midair. The ejaculation is so explosive you can hear it pop from a few feet away. His body rips in half. He falls dead before hitting the ground. And he is one of the lucky males in the hive. When a male bee, called a drone, chases down a queen mid-flight at speeds of 22 miles per hour, his entire reproductive organ turns inside out. The pressure required for this comes from nearly all the blood in his body, which rushes downward to force the organ outward like a spring. The semen fires into the queen with so much force it makes the audible pop. The organ then snaps off and stays lodged inside her like a cork. As he flips backward off her body, his abdomen rips open. The next drone waiting his turn has to physically yank out the dead male's cork before he can mate. The same thing then happens to him. The queen does this 12 to 20 times in a single afternoon. She flies up to a spot in the sky that beekeepers call a drone congregation area. Picture an invisible meeting point about 50 to 130 feet above the ground where up to 11,000 male bees from as many as 240 different hives are hovering, waiting for her. These spots stay in the exact same locations year after year, sometimes for over a decade. No one fully understands how brand new drones, born only weeks earlier, find them. By the end of her mating run, the queen has collected around 100 million sperm cells. She keeps only 5 to 6 million in a tiny internal storage organ that keeps them alive for years. From that supply, she uses just two sperm cells per egg for the rest of her life, laying up to 2,000 eggs a day for 2 to 7 years. After that one afternoon in the sky, she will never mate again. A 2019 study from UC Riverside, the University of Copenhagen, and the University of Western Australia found that bee semen contains toxic proteins that temporarily blind the queen by interfering with how vision genes function in her brain. If she can't see well, she can't fly out again to mate with more males. Their semen also carries a separate protein that attacks and kills sperm cells from rival drones still inside her. The males keep competing long after every one of them is dead. The 99.9% of drones who never get to mate have it worse. As autumn arrives, the female worker bees in the hive stop feeding their brothers, then drag them out of the entrance after biting off their wings. The drones can't fly back in. They starve or freeze in the grass within days. The colony raises a fresh batch of disposable males the next spring, and the whole cycle starts over.
𝙍𝙞𝙘𝙠 🥊@RickCombatTV

Male bee dies after ejaculation while mating with a queen bee

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acceler8future
acceler8future@acceler8future·
Number 1 priority is to buy $SATS with 40% upside vs $SPCX IPO price Number 2 is a cheeky bet on $ASTS Number 3 is don’t sell your $TSLA Number 4 is buy $SPCX if you can but only if you are prepared to wait. $TSLA shareholders will understand.
Leo Edge@LeoCapital_01

A message for my $TSLA friends eyeing the SpaceX IPO $SPCX. I traded $TSLA for years. I know the community. I know the excitement when Elon takes something public. But before you chase @SpaceX at $1.75 trillion, read the S-1 carefully. SpaceX doesn't need your money. They raised at $800B in private tenders six months ago. They could raise $50B privately tomorrow with a phone call. This IPO isn't about raising capital. It's about giving insiders liquidity. 95% of @SpaceX shares are held by insiders. Only 5% will be publicly traded. Insiders hold $1.66 trillion in paper wealth they currently can't sell. The IPO changes that. And they've structured it so insiders can sell BEFORE the standard 180-day lock-up expires. @SpaceX built in early release provisions -- after the first earnings report, insiders can sell up to 20% of their shares. They're also reserving 30% of IPO shares for retail. Ask yourself -- when has Wall Street ever given retail the best seats in the house unless retail was the product? 100x revenue. $4.9B net loss. xAI burning $6.4B a year while @Starlink subsidizes it. This isn't 2020 Tesla at 20x revenue with a clear path to profitability. This is a different risk profile. Now here's the part I want you to actually consider. SpaceX's S-1 sizes their satellite-to-phone business (Starlink Mobile) at a $740 billion TAM. Their Connectivity segment does $11.4B at 63% EBITDA margins. Those numbers are real and impressive. But buried in the S-1, @SpaceX names their D2D competitor: $ASTS . @AST_SpaceMobile $40 billion market cap. Not $1.75 trillion. $40 billion. Here's what $40B buys you: 98.9 Mbps proven from space to unmodified phones (SpaceX does 3-5 Mbps) The only low-band D2D spectrum access on Earth (indoor coverage SpaceX can't match) All three US carriers forming a joint venture around ASTS technology Google invested $358M their largest public equity holding AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone as equity investors $3.5B cash, $1.2B contracted backlog 3,900 patents, custom ASIC in production Three satellites launching on a Falcon 9 next month 60 carrier partners covering 3 billion subscribers @SpaceX at $1.75T is pricing perfection across rockets, satellites, AI, and Mars. One miss and it corrects hard. $ASTS at $40B is pricing uncertainty in a $740B market where the technology is already proven and the carriers have already chosen sides. The Tesla community knows what it feels like to find a mispriced stock before the world catches on. $TSLA at $30 pre-split wasn't obvious to anyone except the people who did the work. $ASTS at $106 in a $740B market with 33x faster speeds than SpaceX D2D, a carrier JV, and institutional discovery just beginning -- that's the same kind of setup. So before you throw money at a $1.75T IPO where insiders are building exit ramps, maybe look at the $40B competitor they named in their own filing. Not financial advice. Just math. $ASTS 🛰️ cc @SawyerMerritt @unusual_whales @DanBTC916

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acceler8future
acceler8future@acceler8future·
@KawzInvests $SATS is a $SPCX proxy who have X Money. All I need on the FinX side of things.
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KawzInvests 🦑
KawzInvests 🦑@KawzInvests·
Football has Pelé. Maradona. Ronaldo. Messi. FinX has its own GOATs. Who are your 4?
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Tesla Yoda
Tesla Yoda@teslayoda·
Maybe Tesla should make a cargo van.
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acceler8future
acceler8future@acceler8future·
Regulations don’t always make the world a better place Or Regulations nearly always make the world a worse place?
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt

Lars Moravy in new interview on why the @Tesla Model S and Model X were discontinued: "Every 5 years or so Euro NCAP updates their protocols. Looking forward, they are getting more stringent. Some of the IIHS stuff. We want to make the safety cars on the road, and that means always making structural updates. We were at the point where this platform, like it was never designed for the small overlap and the offset cases that exist now on Europe NCAP and IIHS. We made bandaids along the way to make sure it was being safe in those positions, but it was just like man it's going to be a massive overhaul. At the same time, going back to the room it was like we were talking about Optimus and like where do we put Optimus and it was like well we got to spend you know however many hundreds of millions of dollars to redo this in this factory, but we also need a pilot factory for Optimus. And it just kind of was like serendipitous. I think that the two things went hand in hand. You said who was the first one to bring it up. The future is autonomous. These cars were the first ones we designed. They're the least ready for that, you know, world. So, we got to move forward." Sounds like it just wasn't worth the investment, since it was likely going to cost several hundreds of millions to retool and redesign, and maybe even more to build a pilot Optimus factory somewhere else, when it would just make more sense to use the S/X space in the Fremont factory. (You can listen to the full interview in Ryan’s post below)

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acceler8future
acceler8future@acceler8future·
@PepInvestStocks This might mean $SIVE are first to embrace LPKF glass interposers. Although I'm expecting $KOPN microLEDs to dominate.
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Pep Invest
Pep Invest@PepInvestStocks·
$SIVE (Fabless) vs. $LITE (Vertical Integration) Sivers shares the market with two of the world’s most powerful manufacturing giants. The division of roles is perfectly optimized: $SIVE (The “Intellectual Power”): ~124 employees develop the proprietary, architecturally unique laser design and own the IP. WIN Semiconductors (The Wafer Fab): ~3,000 employees operate the cleanrooms and turn the design into Indium Phosphide (InP) wafers. $JBL (The Packaging Giant): ~140,000 employees integrate the lasers into final products such as optical engines, ELS modules, and transceivers. The key point: Sivers does not have to directly employ or pay a single one of these ~143,000 partner employees. Sivers simply purchases wafer capacity and sells the finished high-margin product (the laser or licensed design) to CPO customers. $LITE: ~10,500 employees Lumentum follows the traditional vertically integrated model. They own their fabs, their packaging facilities, and must manage a global organization of more than 10,000 employees. That means: enormous fixed costs, heavy depreciation from factories and equipment, and significant exposure to cyclical market downturns. The Massive Leverage for $SIVE Once the volume ramp begins around 2027, this structure creates two extremely powerful effects that generalist analysts completely miss in their models. 1. Infinite Scalability Without Capital Expenditures (CapEx) If a CPO customer such as Ayar Labs or a hyperscaler increases orders from 10,000 to 10 million laser arrays per year, the following happens: $LITE may need to build additional fabs, expand cleanrooms, and hire hundreds of new employees. This pressures margins in the short to medium term. $SIVE simply calls WIN Semi and Jabil. Because these giants already scale for the global tech industry, they can absorb the volume shock with ease. Sivers itself would not need to add a single employee. Revenue could increase by 100x while fixed costs tied to its ~124 employees remain nearly unchanged. 2. Astronomical Revenue per Employee This is the metric that drives technology multiples on Wall Street and the Nasdaq. At Lumentum, revenue is spread across a massive workforce of more than 10,000 employees. At Sivers, the revenue from a large-scale volume ramp flows through an organization of only ~124 people. Once commercial contracts begin scaling, Sivers’ revenue per employee could surpass Lumentum’s, and that of most semiconductor companies, by a wide margin. This is precisely the metric that allows software companies to command premium valuations. Sivers is effectively replicating a software-like margin structure within the hardware sector. $LITE may be larger today, but it carries the inefficiencies of a giant organization. $SIVE by contrast, leverages WIN Semi and $JBL to harness the manufacturing power of approximately 143,000 workers while remaining lean, agile, and potentially highly profitable. Anyone valuing Sivers using traditional semiconductor frameworks may fail to understand this asymmetric leverage.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.

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Ryan McCaffrey
Ryan McCaffrey@DMC_Ryan·
Tesla friends: my new interview with @larsmoravy & @woodhaus2 is here! It's all about the history & legacy of the Model S & X. The guys tell some really awesome stories from over the years (& give us a nugget of new Roadster news too). Timecodes and MP3 link below. Enjoy! 00:12:18 Interview Start 00:13:30 How the Decision to Discontinue S and X Happened 00:18:02 S and X Would Need a Complete Redesign to Continue 00:21:55 Next-Gen Roadster News 00:25:03 Signature Numbers 00:29:03 Final S and X Production Numbers 00:29:43 The Beginning of Model S 00:36:20 More Lightning 00:36:48 Old S and X Stories 00:39:26 First Drive of the Model S...Ever 00:45:14 The EV Market and EV Adoption Rate 00:49:36 Adding Dual Motors to Model S 00:51:36 A 3rd Motor in a Model 3? 00:54:37 About the Never-Made Model S Plaid+ 00:56:58 Are 18650s done at Tesla? 00:58:10 Favorite Wheels 01:02:10 Pencils Down on S and X 01:03:22 Parting Message 01:05:07 Drive or Preserve their Signature S's pscrb.fm/rss/p/traffic.…
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
Tesla's Car Wash Mode is genuinely one of those features you didn't know you needed until you use it. One tap and it closes windows, locks the charge port, disables auto wipers, turns off Sentry Mode, silences parking sensors, and gives you a live checklist of everything that could go wrong in an automatic car wash. It even has a one-tap button to put the car in neutral for conveyor belt washes, which anyone who's fumbled with a Tesla gear stalk in a car wash line will appreciate. Small feature that saves a lot of headaches. Source: @tesla, Not A Tesla App
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Whole Mars Catalog
Whole Mars Catalog@wholemars·
What was the most interesting Tesla / EV / AI news of the week?
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acceler8future
acceler8future@acceler8future·
@AFTVMedia Havertz needs to start the final with Gyokeres replacing him at 60 mins.
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AFTV
AFTV@AFTVMedia·
GOALLLL!!!! Madueke doubles the lead for The Arsenal!!!!!
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Arsenal
Arsenal@Arsenal·
Jesus' goal has us leading in the way at the break in a scorching south London 🌞
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acceler8future
acceler8future@acceler8future·
@AFTVMedia Two great opportunities wasted by Jesus. Martinelli had a tap in... If we get £30 for him I would be amazed!
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AFTV
AFTV@AFTVMedia·
I've seen enough. Can we get Gunnersaurus on for Jesus?
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Andrew Neil
Andrew Neil@afneil·
Actually, old bean, I’ll be in the USA for many of the World Cup matches. I will be cheering on Scotland, England, France and the USA. If England plays France or USA I will cheer on England. If France plays USA I will cheer on France. Whoever Scotland plays I will be cheering on Scotland. Always. I trust that clarifies my position. I know it troubles you a lot and that this full explanation will help you sleep better. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿DavoM🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿@Davo_Mack

@afneil Paisley born Andrew will be cheering on England at the World Cup from his French home, there’s a name for this kind of person 🤔

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