
acceler8future
50.3K posts

acceler8future
@acceler8future
Elon, Tesla, $TSLA and 🚀 future Replies - Conservatives, Arsenal and more


Sumo wrestler destroyed a 5-0 pro boxer in an MMA fight last night 😳



Male bee dies after ejaculation while mating with a queen bee

I'm having a hard time finding a color the Cybercab doesn't look good in.

A message for my $TSLA friends eyeing the SpaceX IPO $SPCX. I traded $TSLA for years. I know the community. I know the excitement when Elon takes something public. But before you chase @SpaceX at $1.75 trillion, read the S-1 carefully. SpaceX doesn't need your money. They raised at $800B in private tenders six months ago. They could raise $50B privately tomorrow with a phone call. This IPO isn't about raising capital. It's about giving insiders liquidity. 95% of @SpaceX shares are held by insiders. Only 5% will be publicly traded. Insiders hold $1.66 trillion in paper wealth they currently can't sell. The IPO changes that. And they've structured it so insiders can sell BEFORE the standard 180-day lock-up expires. @SpaceX built in early release provisions -- after the first earnings report, insiders can sell up to 20% of their shares. They're also reserving 30% of IPO shares for retail. Ask yourself -- when has Wall Street ever given retail the best seats in the house unless retail was the product? 100x revenue. $4.9B net loss. xAI burning $6.4B a year while @Starlink subsidizes it. This isn't 2020 Tesla at 20x revenue with a clear path to profitability. This is a different risk profile. Now here's the part I want you to actually consider. SpaceX's S-1 sizes their satellite-to-phone business (Starlink Mobile) at a $740 billion TAM. Their Connectivity segment does $11.4B at 63% EBITDA margins. Those numbers are real and impressive. But buried in the S-1, @SpaceX names their D2D competitor: $ASTS . @AST_SpaceMobile $40 billion market cap. Not $1.75 trillion. $40 billion. Here's what $40B buys you: 98.9 Mbps proven from space to unmodified phones (SpaceX does 3-5 Mbps) The only low-band D2D spectrum access on Earth (indoor coverage SpaceX can't match) All three US carriers forming a joint venture around ASTS technology Google invested $358M their largest public equity holding AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone as equity investors $3.5B cash, $1.2B contracted backlog 3,900 patents, custom ASIC in production Three satellites launching on a Falcon 9 next month 60 carrier partners covering 3 billion subscribers @SpaceX at $1.75T is pricing perfection across rockets, satellites, AI, and Mars. One miss and it corrects hard. $ASTS at $40B is pricing uncertainty in a $740B market where the technology is already proven and the carriers have already chosen sides. The Tesla community knows what it feels like to find a mispriced stock before the world catches on. $TSLA at $30 pre-split wasn't obvious to anyone except the people who did the work. $ASTS at $106 in a $740B market with 33x faster speeds than SpaceX D2D, a carrier JV, and institutional discovery just beginning -- that's the same kind of setup. So before you throw money at a $1.75T IPO where insiders are building exit ramps, maybe look at the $40B competitor they named in their own filing. Not financial advice. Just math. $ASTS 🛰️ cc @SawyerMerritt @unusual_whales @DanBTC916


Lars Moravy in new interview on why the @Tesla Model S and Model X were discontinued: "Every 5 years or so Euro NCAP updates their protocols. Looking forward, they are getting more stringent. Some of the IIHS stuff. We want to make the safety cars on the road, and that means always making structural updates. We were at the point where this platform, like it was never designed for the small overlap and the offset cases that exist now on Europe NCAP and IIHS. We made bandaids along the way to make sure it was being safe in those positions, but it was just like man it's going to be a massive overhaul. At the same time, going back to the room it was like we were talking about Optimus and like where do we put Optimus and it was like well we got to spend you know however many hundreds of millions of dollars to redo this in this factory, but we also need a pilot factory for Optimus. And it just kind of was like serendipitous. I think that the two things went hand in hand. You said who was the first one to bring it up. The future is autonomous. These cars were the first ones we designed. They're the least ready for that, you know, world. So, we got to move forward." Sounds like it just wasn't worth the investment, since it was likely going to cost several hundreds of millions to retool and redesign, and maybe even more to build a pilot Optimus factory somewhere else, when it would just make more sense to use the S/X space in the Fremont factory. (You can listen to the full interview in Ryan’s post below)


Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.









@afneil Paisley born Andrew will be cheering on England at the World Cup from his French home, there’s a name for this kind of person 🤔











