ormica (🤡,🤡)

Different conclusions in respect of what?

Yields surging are a far more existential threat than Iran at this point. No — this is not coming from a political angle. The US cannot afford this war. ▪️Interest payments nearing ~5% of GDP ▪️Military spending ramping up ▪️Trade deficits worsening as the dollar rises ▪️Energy costs surging Not to mention: Food prices are set to rise next, with inequality already at historically elevated levels. This is a recipe for social unrest. open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/…

How the oil price affects diversity.

Gold is selling off During a war. With oil at $100+ Confusing? Here's why 🔴 Fed stays hawkish energy inflation = no cuts 🔴 Real yields rising = headwind for non-yielding gold 🔴 Dollar strengthening = gold under pressure 🔴 Crowded longs unwinding = technical flush below 50-day MA Every time equities dropped since the war began, investors sold gold to raise liquidity. The ultimate hedge. Being sold to cover losses elsewhere. This isn't a collapse in gold's long-term thesis. It's a crowded trade getting washed out. War and $100 oil are bullish for gold. But right now the tape doesn't care about theory. It cares about margin calls. 📉 The long-term store of value case is intact. The short-term chart is ugly. Know the difference. ♟️ #gold

You need to be watching emerging market debt and who owns it.

CJCS Gen. Caine: Iran still retains ballistic missile capabilities.

Numerous trucks are reportedly entering Iran from Tajikistan under the label of “humanitarian aid.” But this raises serious concerns. Islamic Regime has previously established drone production facilities in Tajikistan, this is documented and worth revisiting. Link: mei.edu/publication/ir… Tajikistan could also serve as a transit route, from Russia to Iran. Given the existing alliances of Russia and Islamic Regime. A convoy of trucks labeled as humanitarian aid should not go unquestioned. It needs proper investigation. The risks are too significant to ignore.

This is the most absurd map in the world, and it shows how Germany fails fundamentally at being digital. This map shows the municipalities and the "class" of email providers. Each color, except for "US Hyperscaler", represents multiple vendors.

@tleilax___ Source for 4/

OK people, now we enter the export control phase : 1/ Control of food exports (Indian sugar for example) ==> Be long midcurve white sugar. Two of the largest sugar refineries in the world are unreachable (Al Khaleej in Dubai and Etihad in Iraq) 2/ Control of fuel exports (US, Indian, Chinese, Russia diesel and gasoline) ==> Be long midcurve diesel as the rollup is insane vs spot. 3/ Control of fertilizer exports (Russia, Belarus, India) ==> Long corn and raw sugar which are very fertilizer intensive crops and also are the principal feedstocks for ethanol production 4/ Control of capital exports (mainly Arab money for now) ==> Be short stocks

4/ I have an idea

Your grandparents had grandparents. They had grandparents. Somewhere back there, someone got on a boat, or didn't. Someone changed their name, or had it changed for them. Someone is buried in a cemetery you've never heard of in a country you've never been to. Most families lose track after two generations. I used AI to push mine back nine. One session with @karpathy's autoresearch pattern: over 100 organized research files. It found a 1940 Norwegian emigrant history with my ancestors in it. Resolved a maiden name question that confused my family for 70 years. Identified relatives no one alive knew existed. The method is simple: set a goal, measure progress, verify against real records, repeat. The AI searches public archives, cross-references birth certificates against cemetery records against church books, and logs everything it finds (and everything it doesn't). Open sourced the whole toolkit. Prompts that do the research for you, archive guides for 20+ countries, starter templates, even a framework for making sense of DNA results. If you have a box of old photos and unanswered questions, this is where to start. github.com/mattprusak/aut…

Increased Their Ballistic Launch after The gas facility struck Update Numbers as of Mar. 18, 12.00 AM The numbers are rounded and compiled from various media reports, with a margin of error of ±10% 15%

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if infrastructure like this 👇 gets blown up, as of this moment it will take at least a decade to recover from this war - and the truth is that the world's energy picture is probably changed forever. This single facility 👇produced roughly 20% of global LNG supply (aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18…) and, as of 2011, had taken $70 billion to build (energyintel.com/0000017b-a7be-…). What makes this even worse is that Iran's strike on this was retaliation after Israel attacked their South Pars gas field which draws from the same natural gas reservoir, which is the world's largest by far (9,700 km² - about the size of Qatar itself). Heck, on the list of the 25 largest natural gas fields (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n…) this single reservoir holds roughly 40% of their combined recoverable reserves - and is nearly 6 times bigger than the 2nd biggest field in the world. And, unlike many of the others on the list, it's only at 10% depletion (meaning 90% of the gas is still there). Which means that, probably for many years, a huge share of the gas from the world's largest reservoir simply won't be extractable, as infrastructure on both sides - Qatar's and Iran's - has now been blown up. From a global energy supply perspective, we're deep into worst-case scenario territory.

QatarEnergy Statement on Missile Attacks on its LNG Facilities In addition to the previous attack on Ras Laffan Industrial City on Wednesday 18 March 2026 that resulted in extensive damage to the Pearl GTL (Gas-to-Liquids) facility, QatarEnergy confirms that in the early hours of Thursday 19 March 2026, several of its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities were the subject of missile attacks, causing sizeable fires and extensive further damage. Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting damage with no reported casualties. QatarEnergy will continue to communicate the latest available information. #Qatar

“Europe will be hurt the most from the Iran war” 🤡

My current thoughts: The market is pricing TACO as near-certain and imminent. The variant view, that TACO is overpriced given the gap between Iranian conditions and US deliverables, the named facility execution window out from Iran this morning after attacks on Pars gas field, and the historical SPX pain threshold not having been reached, is a legitimate and well-supported contrarian position. The physical crude market in Oman above $150 agrees with the variant view. The financial crude market at $98 agrees with consensus TACO pricing. The gold market at $4,900 agrees with consensus. The 10Y yield at 4.22% is the only asset confirming the variant view's stagflation thesis. The variant trade is: long crude, long vol, long TTF gas, short energy-intensive SPX sectors, long gold; all sized for a conflict that extends meaningfully beyond the market's current resolution timeline assumption. The risk to the variant is the India bottom-up framework producing a resolution that arrives without announcement. Watch the AIS data and the Oman physical price. Those are the tells.

Gen. PETRAEUS: The future of warfare—not yet seen in the Gulf—is Ukraine producing 7 million drones per year. Last year they made 3.5 million, enabling 9–10 thousand drones per day. These are still remotely piloted. But autonomous systems are coming, and that means drone swarms. They're already being introduced at mission end. Defending against swarms is really hard—you'll need high-powered microwaves or similar. We're not where we should be, despite what we should have learned from Ukraine for a very long time. They're making software changes every week or two, hardware changes every 2–3 weeks.

China’s Military Is a Paper Dragon — Venezuela & Iran Proved It. China just quietly erased the chief designer of the J-20, along with top scientists in nuclear, radar, and missile programs. This is a systemic purge. Beijing is doing two things at once: 1) Political cleansing for absolute loyalty 2) A full audit of its military hardware Why? Because they’re no longer sure their weapons actually work. For decades, corruption infected everything in China, promotions were bought, procurement was rigged, materials were faked. On paper, China built a world-class military. In reality, many systems are unreliable, untested, or outright inflated. This is the difference between a showroom and a battlefield. The U.S. military tests weapons in real wars. China tests them in PowerPoint. Now imagine planning a Taiwan invasion without knowing if your missiles will fire, your radar will detect, or your jets will survive. The battlefield failures of Chinese military systems in Venezuela and Iran are exposing a harsh reality: the PLA is still a paper dragon. When tested against real combat conditions, the gap between propaganda and performance becomes impossible to hide. And that’s exactly why Xi is panicking.

This really doesn't even warrant effort to actually refute, but for the sake of any genuine audience that doesn't know how to measure warfare, I'm going to demonstrate real quick how we know Iran is getting curb stomped. First, consider the image with Blue X's and Red O's. This is a map of every confirmed strike since the war started. Even without considering timing and impact, the mere quantity here is significantly in favor of the Combined Forces—the Blue X's. Second, consider the video. This is the same data, but separated by day of event from February 28 to March 15. You can visually see the decline in return fire from Iran. Since I'm limited on images, in the comments I'll share the graphs breaking down this decline in even more detail. Third, consider Iran's missile ranges and choice of targets. While their posturing is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has shifted its oil exports to the Red Sea. This is well within range of Iran's higher-end ballistic missiles—yet, they aren't attacking it. This is because they are rationing missiles for more immediate threats; something done when someone is on the defensive with limited ability to resist. Fourth, consider the discrepancy between rhetoric and action. While Iran's posturing is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, their closure of the Strait appears to primarily be in name only. There have been no confirmed attacks on ships either in the Strait or the Gulf in six days. SIX DAYS. That's the last third of this war so far. Fifth, consider the choice of Combined Force targets. While Iran is attempting to attack critical oil infrastructure, the IDF is targeting local police and Basij stations. The Combined Forces are actually running out of military targets and are now simply shaping the country for an internal overthrow. Sixth, and probably the most obvious is to just look at the numbers and identities of losses. These are not even close. At the very least Iran has lost: 1x Supreme Leader 2x Defense Minister 1x Head of the Military Office of the Supreme Leader 1x Armed Forces Chief of Staff 1x Supreme National Security Secretary 1x IRGC Commander 1x Minister of Intelligence 1x Head of Intelligence Directorate 1x National Basij Commander These aren't just what the Combined Force reports—this is what Iran acknowledges! There is no steelman of the "Iran is winning" nonsense. Its complete and utter nonsense. You can argue, though I disagree, about economic or political ramifications, but any suggestion that Iran is actually militarily winning is absolutely retarded.

Iran is firing MORE and they are hitting MORE per shot than during the first days of the conflict. Not good..