Andrew Rogers

Portfolio review is out for 2025 on my SS. My 2025 portfolio returns were 34.66% driven by Celsius Holdings 77.2% portfolio gain.

@GabGrowth I think you are asking the wrong question. The right question is what is the usage pattern and who are their customers. OAI is running a freemium business with 1 billion users, with very low sub attach rate in sub 10 million. Most of Anthropic's customers are paying them.

This begs the question… how is Anthropic profitable already? Also, we recently heard news of OpenAI at Adj. Operating Margin of -122%. Is there really such a huge difference in the efficiency between the 2 leading model providers?

Thoughts on investing. The truth about investing is something that Warren Buffett demonstrated intentionally over the Berkshire letters. Over the long-term as investors, we earn the returns on capital that our investments earn. Reference: - berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2018lt…

@JustinRTipton Yes I think it requires that they can reinvest at high rates as well. Without the growth ROIC stays high because the companies pay dividends/buybacks but that nets out to much lower returns than the ROIC.

@adrewrogers I think it's that simple too. Where it gets complicated to me are the companies like AAPL that have run out of ideas to deploy new capital. An ROIC of 20% doesn't mean much when your capital employed hasn't gone up for five years, your returns are coming from something else.

@dorb2sQ The true question is what is the ROIC in 10 years and how long can it keep growing, which of course we don't know the answer to.

@adrewrogers While it is correct, it should be said that it mostly depends on the very long term average ROIC. Now we should ask if $DLO has enough runway to invest capital or whether in 15 years their returns will be the same. And BTW specifically for $DLO I believe ROE is a better metric :)

9) We are all watching a show here that is designed to drastic us from very basic things. The day-in and day-out of the stock market feels important. The truth is very simple, we are just going to earn what the business earns. The secret to realization is simply patience.

8) For modern investors, questions like these are easy to answer. ROIC is extremely high at 37% which is a reflection of the value $DLO software provides to their merchants. TPV in the last quarter was growing at 70% YoY. This answer is pretty clear.

@GabGrowth I think that the right answer is something in the middle with position sizes weighted by downside risk. The key insight I have had if you choose idea 1 over idea 3, you may think idea 1 is better from a projected ROI. But you don't truly know idea 3 was worse.

@GabGrowth I have had the opposite experience; I have taken a core 3 position portfolio and swung very hard at $DLO, $AMZN, $CELH What I can say: 1. Because of this approach I have missed huge winners; $MU is an example 2. The volatility is extreme; my portfolio regularly has 30-50% swing

One mistake i’ve continuously made is not swinging harder when the opportunity arrives. Over the past few years alone, I’ve had several multi-baggers from $HOOD, $HIMS, $COIN, $SE, $SOL and others. (5x-19x returns) They have typically ranged from 6%-20% positions. While they have returned well, few have been needle movers. For instance, $HOOD was a 6% position, returning 19x at the top, with a blended return of 11x as I trimmed on the way up. 11x is an incredible return, but it ultimately resulted in only a +66% contribution to portfolio gains which I believe is disappointing. As such, I have been thinking hard over the past few months on portfolio allocation and sizing of positions. Currently, I have 13 positions with the largest being ~16%. While that is sizeable, I do wonder if swinging even harder at the best opportunities I can find is the optimal solution here. Of course, there is survivor bias involved where I have been pretty successful in my picks. However, in cases where I find extremely asymmetric reward/risk, I do wonder if I should be more aggressive. Ultimately, just some late night thoughts that I continue to ponder on. Would appreciate if anyone has a different view on this to share.

Pleased with $DLO earnings, as I have mentioned before I am taking the long-term view and holding as long as TPV keeps growing. I have conviction the problem $DLO solves is significant and therefore long-term the business will appreciate.

Not entirely sure on why but right now the market absolutely hates $CELH. What I observed this weekend is that Alani Nu is penetrating further into the female demographic and the growth story is still intact.

Random thought but I think recursive self-improvement is actually going to happen. Recent experience w/ Claude: 1. Right answer to sophisticated problem is X, debug entire pipeline until you arrive at solution 2. Model writes own evals and successfully debugs itself