adventurous_spirit

*** Wild Card Scenarios: All Four Modeled Outcomes *** Companion to the BC Conservative Leadership Race 2026 Final Analytical Conclusion · May 25, 2026 Four alternative ballot orderings were modeled based on confirmed transfer signals from the six-platform grassroots sweep. Each scenario tests what happens when a candidate other than Fulmer is eliminated first. In every case the confirmed transfer signals were applied consistently. Milobar eliminated first. Fulmer survives to Ballot 2 with his Findlay-aligned base intact. When Fulmer is eliminated on Ballot 2 his transfers flow predominantly to Findlay per the mutual transfer signal confirmed across X, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram. Black is eliminated on Ballot 3. The final ballot becomes Elliott versus Findlay. Under both Black transfer scenarios modeled, Findlay leads or wins. Under the grassroots signal scenario Findlay wins approximately 48 percent to Elliott's 33 percent. Under the Pallas Data scenario Findlay leads Elliott 41 percent to 40 percent. Findlay eliminated first. Requires her verified count to fall below Fulmer and Milobar. Not supported by any confirmed data given her endorsement weight of 136.5 points across 10 MLAs and confirmed rural activation signal. Without Findlay available as a transfer destination, Fulmer's confirmed second choice signal toward her cannot be fulfilled. Fulmer is eliminated on Ballot 2 with transfers flowing toward Black as the next available preference, a modeled assumption not a confirmed signal. The final ballot becomes Black versus Elliott. Black wins approximately 38 percent to Elliott's 34 percent. Elliott's transfer ceiling remains the lowest of all remaining candidates across all confirmed signals. Black eliminated first. Requires his verified count to fall below Fulmer and Milobar. Not supported by confirmed data given his first ballot polling floor of approximately 21 percent in the most current member-specific poll. Without Black as a transfer destination, Milobar and Fulmer transfers consolidate behind Findlay. The final ballot becomes Findlay versus Elliott. Findlay wins approximately 52 percent to Elliott's 28 percent. Elliott eliminated first. The least probable scenario across all available data. She leads every member-specific poll and holds a confirmed first-ballot riding-point lead of approximately 323 points under the corrected 93-riding regional model. Polymarket prices her at 90 percent on $65,319 in confirmed volume. Without Elliott in the race Fulmer transfers reach Findlay intact on Ballot 2 per the confirmed mutual transfer signal. Milobar transfers partially reach Findlay on Ballot 3. The final ballot becomes Findlay versus Black. Findlay wins approximately 54 percent to Black's 27 percent, the widest margin of any scenario modeled. Across all four wild card scenarios and the standard model one finding is consistent: Elliott does not win in any scenario where she is not present on the final ballot. The standard model produces two possible outcomes: Findlay wins on Ballot 4A if Black transfers break toward her per the grassroots signal, Elliott wins on Ballot 4B if Black transfers break toward her per the Elliott-commissioned Pallas Data poll. Across the four wild card scenarios Findlay wins three. In the Findlay-first scenario the final ballot becomes Black versus Elliott, where Elliott's transfer ceiling remains the lowest of all remaining candidates across all confirmed signals. Thank you for spending the time to engage with these posts. Source & support info in the comments to follow.

A biophysics grad was just detained under BC's Mental Health Act. All based on a psychiatrist's opinion after observing him in a cafe. He looked at him & said “I’m certifying you” THAT’S ALL IT TOOK. No warrant. No on scene evaluation. No psych evaluation. No paperwork shown. No chance to comply voluntarily. Just because a psychiatrist saw him in a cafe. Meanwhile, the same city has a documented drug addicts, where one person, has been apprehended 79 times and is still on the street. The government can grab a credentialed researcher off the road in 20 minutes but it can't keep a chronic offender out of the same intersection for more than a week? What a joke.

Pride Month begins in one week.