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@affaan

ETFs for Prediction Markets @ito_markets | B={(eᵢ,wᵢ)}; Vᴮ=Σᵢwᵢℙα(eᵢ=1) | Creator of ECC: The OSS Agent Meta-Harness (#25 GH)

nyc Katılım Şubat 2024
874 Takip Edilen31.3K Takipçiler
cogsec
cogsec@affaan·
i’ve commented on their model before and said what I had to say from the beginning but yes the philosophy of pitching to degen retail and then saying it starts with parlays and going to structured products is cope if you wanted to do structured products you can just start with structured products and do things the right way which is what we’ve been doing and working with the big players to bring this to market in various forms it’s not as glamorous, it doesn’t get the virality and the clout, primarily because you can’t be loud about it (obv), and it’s also painful being first and creating something new, with very little we want to take storm with the big dogs and bring this straight to the top, widespread, that means one on one long sales cycles, relationship building and uphill battles everywhere retail will also get access to structured products, long horizon, investments, not degen parlays
Finn Hulse@finn_hulse

@PajeetDavidson more likely the power player here is an up and coming proper pm trading desk like @ito_markets who works with both big players to quote parlays

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cogsec
cogsec@affaan·
recursive-decision-ledger exists because recursive agents lose the plot decision, evidence, reversibility, stop condition, compounding loop instead of a extremely naive greedy + breadth search that doesn't even keep track of where its at
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cogsec
cogsec@affaan·
50x bro observed @absurdistphil prompting like this when we’re like 14 hours into the day, running low on tokens, running a distilled mental model and feeling quantized so I did what I do best and turned them into ECC skills
Nick@nickcammarata

if you want a 2x speed up on something and you ask an agent it’ll come back with sorry the best I could find was 1.5x :( if you instead ask for 50x it’ll come back saying sorry the best I could find was 30x :( then use that one

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cogsec
cogsec@affaan·
@TW1NKD3STR0YER it’s been raining 3 days straight, give me the california weather please
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jean
jean@TW1NKD3STR0YER·
im finally back. god bless new york city. fuck san francisco, fuck oakland, fuck the bart, fuck california weather, fuck bathers library, fuck the embarcadero station
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critter
critter@BecomingCritter·
does the number just... keep going up?
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cogsec
cogsec@affaan·
@fishPointer i pay like 410 a months if it’s like your only hobby / third place it’s mostly worth it to just pay
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fish
fish@fishPointer·
so this is like a joke right
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cogsec
cogsec@affaan·
@FangYi11101 @varunram haven’t seen it, the devin subs have been running for weeks if not since like mid april
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forward deployed ccp gf
forward deployed ccp gf@FangYi11101·
Why is a B2B company advertising on the subway? To reach the handful of VPs of engineering who might see this on their commutes? For general brand awareness? Might make sense in SF, but in NYC?
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Daniel Merja ( gotogether.ai )
We launched our website for Hello World Cafe, New York 's first 24/7 cafe for builders. Now we are at $500k revenue run rate with just the idea
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cogsec
cogsec@affaan·
help @thsottiaux this never works for me have tried everything, logging out and back in disconnecting an removing the connections (can’t figure out how to permanently delete from the mobile side only the desktop side)
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cogsec
cogsec@affaan·
"Like imagine being able to price the impact of a paper before everyone knows it matters. Or price academic impact without citations. Or price open-source value without MRR. Because there is an epidemic of fake GitHub stars, fake repo history, all of that. But we still know some repositories are actually valuable. They create economic output. People use them. They save time. They replace other software. They matter. But how do you price that? Right now, you almost can’t. You can say, “I feel like this is working.” You can say, “This has value.” You can maybe put some multiple on growth or usage. But there is no real way to make that value liquid." I have a scattershot of metrics, various revenue streams that act differently, for example native stripe subscriptions for your devtool / app (ECC-Tools), the sponsorship revenue, the github native revenue, downloads from github or other avenues, the growth and usage of the repo itself (stars, forks, PRs, issues, contributors, discussions ...), whats the value of the "ECC" umbrella itself? How do you quantify the value of everything all together, you have metrics of course, MRR, conversion, but MRR depends on where its coming from theres more implied depending on if its for a product or via sponsorships, downloads vary with clones, forks, plugin installs, npm installs, its hard to even track or quantify the impact downstream. There's value in PMs to price complex and subjective things like this, for many things, there's well established data, ML models and pricing models that have existed forever, but for the new world and where we are headed that isn't super clear.
cogsec tweet media
Itô@ito_markets

x.com/i/article/2056…

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danning
danning@sui414·
Hosting a research dinner tomorrow in NYC Who are the prediction market experts I should invite? 👀👀
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cogsec
cogsec@affaan·
thanks for asking an actual question, AI or not lmao will go more into the methodology that we can disclose but monthly cadence on most with transparent methodology (with some intra monthly based on some criterion we have set) and all strategic baskets are dynamically balanced based on our algorithm that takes into account every reactionary, intrinsic, quantitative and qualitative parameter you can probably list off the top of your head tha it should take into account
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cogsec
cogsec@affaan·
Select thematics baskets rolling out to sophisticated retail early next week If you're a top trader currently in prediction markets, equities, crypto etc, have strong theses, conviction and specialized knowledge about any sector within our taxonomy We want YOU (specifically) to join us for our sophisticated traders capped retail pilot DM for early access
Itô@ito_markets

So cool to see things being built on our Polymarket Universe GDP public repo! On that note we are relaunching the Itô technology baskets - revised! [WIP + subject to change] ITO-T1 → ITO Moat Index ITO-T2 → ITO AI Supply Chain Hedge ITO-T1B → ITO AI Capex Tail Hedge

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