afroopinion

My company @Afroopinion looks for volunteers to perform election surveys on WhatsApp, especially those from diaspora are invited. In 2021 Kyagulanyi got 63% and M7 27%, how much will it be now?

Why didn't we see a Afrobarometer forecast for the Ghana Presidential Elections? Is it maybe because @afrobarometer is located in Ghana and doesn't (didn't) want to get into problems with the government?

Tomorrow are Presidential Elections in Ghana. We forecast that John Mahana will win the first round with 48.5%, but a second round will be necessary. Mahamudu Bawumia will get 39.4%. Nana Kwame Bediako gets 12%. afroopinion.com/?p=67

None of the mayor surveys, including our own survey, had more than half of the respondents favoring Ruto. Did we poll wrong, or are there flaws in the electoral process?

Most mayor surveys predict Waihiga at 0.2% or less. Of our respondents, 1.4% tell us they will vote him. If indeed his score is above 1%, four of the surveyors below have something to explain.

Happy to see that so far Kenyan elections are peaceful. Like we predicted it's a neck and neck race. There are reports Ruto is winning, and reports Odinga is winning. Exciting race!

*chance (not change)

So we expect Odinga 49 +/- 4%, Ruto 45.6% +/- 4%, Wajackoyah 3.7% +/- 1.3% and Waihiga 1.7% +/- 0.7%. A change of about 35-40% that Odinga will win without needing a second round.

On Monday we published our survey for Kenya. We expect @RailaOdinga to win the first round against @WilliamsRuto, but without sufficient votes to get to 50%+1. afroopinion.com/?p=11 /1

Our first research was done in October/November 2020, ahead to the Ugandan presidential elections. We were still using the name Freedom Uganda @UgandaFreedom. afroopinion.com/?p=5

Our motto "When you can't trust governments to count -- We will"