Airbnbusted

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An inconvenient truth… Fed Pivot -> Fed Divot

@rcwhalen @federalreserve @CNBCClosingBell This is still Fed put behavior if you lower FF on the first sign of issues

Memo to Chair Powel: 1) Drop FF target 50bp Monday, 2) No more bank seizures. Open the Discount Window Wide, 3) Apologize for QE. @federalreserve @CNBCClosingBell

Has the world collectively fallen out of love with #Airbnb? “…the market in short term rentals appears to be slowing” “According to AirDNA, occupancy rates fell in 31 of the top 50 largest US short-term rental markets in the second half of last year” theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

@Airbnb Numbers coming in bad enough to try to stir up business on twitter I see?

reply with a 🫴 and we'll give you a destination

@JackFarley96 @rcwhalen Always love to hear from @rcwhalen ! Always some of the most informative and technical talks on the channel

Am about to interview @rcwhalen about failure of Silicon Valley Bank and ramifications for larger banking system We will post ASAP this afternoon

@ewarren Because of the low rates which you incompetently begged Powell to reinstate on live TV

Real estate investors, including giant corporate landlords, bought up 1/4 of all single-family homes sold in 2021, often exploiting tax breaks. The way I see it, taxpayer money on housing needs to go towards addressing the affordability crisis—not enriching Wall Street.

@texasrunnerDFW @pdacosta I think it is, if for no other reason than at our current debt levels, if we set rates at Taylor, we'd be way above what the economy can tolerate. It's suggesting ~8+ right now if I recall correctly? It's completely off narrative

@pdacosta Is there a case to be made the Taylor Rule is a bit of an anachronism? It’s been used more as a guideline than a rule. Monetary policy has become so discretionary

MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Likely Needs To Move Rates Above 6%-Mishkin marketnews.com/mni-interview-…

Juicy - Airbnb is sending out notifications to San Diego hosts to update listings with their license #. "If you don't update ... by May 1, 2023, your listing will no longer be able to host short-term stays." Is airbnb going to de-list unlicensed strs? blog.niceneighbors.org/#/posts/2023-0…

Unsupervised STRs rented to unvetted guests undermine the safety of surrounding neighbors. @GatesforTexas @DrewSpringer @KHancock4TX @RepJMLozano #HB2665, #SB1461, #HB2367 & #SB1466 are all bad public policy that endanger public safety. #CommunityNotCommodity #TXLege

@texasrunnerDFW @IDKFA3 Yes! It is sad that this caused me to have to see his face though.

@IDKFA3 PK is my favorite contrarian indicator

@nickgerli1 Get ready for an army of agents to explain why this is actually a smart investment. Guarantee you 90% of them don't know the significance of the "risk free rate"

4) Because the 1-Yr Treasury now yields more than the Cap Rate for Rental Properties in America. Meaning: it is more profitable to buy a risk-free government bond than buy a house and rent it out. 😬 No wonder Real Estate Investor purchases crashed 46% in Q4 2022.

1-Yr US Treasury now pays 5%. 📈 More than 3x higher than the dividend yield on the S&P 500. Makes it likely that stocks will crash at some point in 2023. As cash flow-driven, big money investors exit stocks for bonds.

Million-dollar loss: Auckland house in Papatoetoe bought for $2.3m sells for $1.3m a year later, via @nzherald nzherald.co.nz/nz/million-dol…

@jessefelder @SoberLook lnteresting that this doesn't really support that narrative I keep hearing which is that ESG is the biggest reason no on is willing to invest in O&G capex

'What factors have been the biggest drag on US O&G production?' thedailyshot.com/2023/02/24/hou… via @SoberLook

“.. You’ll notice .. the last time it was this high was in May 2008, just a few months before the deepest recession in 80 years.” - Deutsche #softlanding

@JeffWeniger TIAOA : there is an obvious alternative

The $18 trillion in negative yielding global debt is gone. Years and years of zero interest rate policy, gone. Now you can have 2-year paper at 310bps over the S&P's dividend yield. If this doesn't spell "end of Growth versus Value," I don't know what does. TINA, meet TARA.

Took about 10 minutes on google to find soft landing articles before every recession. Human behavior doesn’t change. Fear, greed and “what ifs.” #HOPE #macro

In case you were wondering if we’re still in a bubble…