ajay patel

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ajay patel

ajay patel

@ajaycan

The road is the goal and that's where my time follows! #travel #technology #philosophy #stoic #spacetime

Bengaluru Katılım Haziran 2009
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
Intent day was 29 Jan 2026. Delivery date: 02 feb 2026 Silver then crashed ~31% on Friday, 30 Jan 2026. Despite that crash, these contracts still stood for delivery, with allocation scheduled for 02 Feb 2026 (T+3). So the decision to take physical was made before the crash, and it was not reversed after the crash. That tells you this was not momentum chasing or panic buying. It was conviction. Paper price collapsed. Physical intent stayed firm. That divergence is the signal.
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
RBI is defending the rupee by forcing banks to shrink net open rupee positions in the onshore market. Why this matters: Banks were using offshore NDF hedges to offset onshore exposure. Now that flexibility is tighter. So banks may have to unwind positions quickly, and that can trigger MTM losses, wider spreads, and balance sheet pain. In simple terms: RBI may stabilize the rupee, but banks could absorb the adjustment cost. It is classic currency defense: support the currency now, push the stress into market plumbing.
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
Hong Kong inviting China-friendly central banks into its gold-clearing system is a very big signal. This is not just about trading more gold. It is about building the plumbing of a new bullion power center: clearing settlement vaulting official-sector liquidity London became dominant because it had the infrastructure and trust. Hong Kong is trying to recreate that model with a China-linked backbone and central bank participation. If this grows, more physical gold flow and eventually more pricing influence can shift toward Asia. Gold is no longer just a market. It is becoming monetary infrastructure.
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Bloomberg
Bloomberg@business·
Hong Kong is inviting a number of China-friendly central banks to participate in its gold-clearing system as part of a push to become a major bullion-trading hub bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
Russia used to export very large amounts of gold. 2024: about $12.3B of gold exports. 2021: about $17.36B of unwrought non-monetary gold exports. And even after sanctions, Reuters customs data showed 116.3 tonnes exported from Feb 2022 to Mar 2023, mostly to UAE, China, and Turkey. So this is not a small trade. It is a strategic flow.
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SilverTrade
SilverTrade@silvertrade·
🚨PUTIN SIGNS EXECUTIVE ORDER RESTRICTING GOLD BULLION EXPORTS FROM RUSSIA 🔥
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
@IntlStacker Everything points to one thing Physical tightening While paper expands Price is not the signal Structure is Final line When inventories fall And demand stays Repricing becomes inevitable
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
Big change in gold ETF Here is what actually changed Earlier ETF bought real physical gold Bars sitting in vaults Now ETF can also buy derivatives Futures, swaps, paper contracts Simple meaning Before = real gold backing Now = mix of real + paper Why did they do this? Physical gold is harder to source Demand is rising globally Holding only physical is restrictive Limits how much ETF can grow Derivatives give flexibility Easier to manage inflows Also helps track price Without needing actual delivery But here is the catch Paper gold can expand infinitely Physical gold cannot So more investors May be holding claims Not actual gold Why exit window given? Because risk profile changed It’s no longer pure physical exposure Insight This is not random It reflects stress in physical supply Takeaway ETF becomes easier to scale But weaker as a “real gold” proxy Final line You may own gold price But not necessarily gold itself
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James Henry Anderson
James Henry Anderson@jameshenryand·
unsecured Gold ETFs in India becoming more paper denominated merely derivative ’backed’
Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy@Macrobysunil

🚨 Most investors in India won’t notice this, but it quietly changes what “Gold ETF” means. This is NOT a broad India-level shift. This is HDFC Asset Management Company modifying the structure of its Gold ETF. And it matters. From April 22, 2026, the fund is no longer restricted to being almost entirely physically backed. It can now: • Allocate to gold derivatives • Use financial gold instruments (GMS, GDS, etc.) • Introduce non-physical exposure into the portfolio 👉 With a key change: Up to 50% of the ETF can be in non-physical gold exposure Not mandatory, but allowed. Let’s be clear on what just happened: Earlier: Gold ETF = vault gold + minimal cash Now: Gold ETF = vault gold + optional paper layer That’s a structural shift. This doesn’t mean: ❌ Physical gold is gone ❌ ETFs will instantly become 50% paper But it DOES mean: 👉 The purity of “physical backing” is no longer guaranteed by structure It now depends on fund manager decisions Why this matters: • More derivatives = potential tracking differences • More financial exposure = counterparty & liquidity risk • Over time = possibility of increased “paper gold” in the system This is exactly how global gold markets evolved. Slowly. Quietly. Then structurally. And here’s the most important takeaway: If you are holding Gold ETFs assuming: “I own physical gold exposure” You now need to verify: • % of actual physical gold • % of derivatives / financial instruments • Consistency of tracking vs spot gold Because going forward: Not all Gold ETFs will be the same. Not all “gold exposure” will be physical. And the difference will matter most… when it matters the most. The label stays Gold ETF. The structure is now flexible.

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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
Yields just broke out And this changes everything 1. This is US 2Y yield Short end = Fed expectations 2. Sharp rise = market pricing Higher rates for longer 3. Not normal volatility This is a regime shift signal 4. Liquidity is tightening Cost of money rising fast 5. Risk assets feel pressure Equities, crypto, private credit 6. Bonds are NOT safe here Yields up = bond prices down 7. This explains recent chaos Everything selling together When short-term yields spike Liquidity is being drained Watch the 2Y, not headlines It tells you where money is going Next question: Where does liquidity hide next?
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
This table is the real story Not the headlines, not the noise Follow who is buying Follow who is leaving Japan still holding the system together But even they are slowing China is exiting This is not temporary This is strategic Emerging markets are stepping back India, Brazil, others reducing exposure Middle East not recycling like before Petrodollar system quietly weakening Europe not strong enough to replace demand Flows are fragmented, not coordinated Some buying is illusion Cayman, Belgium, Luxembourg = proxies Not real conviction Just plumbing of the system This is the shift From “automatic demand” To “conditional demand” That changes everything If confidence drops even slightly Yields don’t rise slowly They jump And when bonds move fast Everything else breaks This is not about Iran This is about trust in the system And that trust is slowly leaking
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
Patience is the real edge in this market Short term noise shakes weak hands Liquidity stress creates forced moves 1. Volatility is not risk It is the transfer of positions 2. Those with liquidity survive Those without are forced out 3. Paper price moves fast Physical reality moves slow 4. Big money plays time Retail reacts to emotion Stay liquid Stay patient Stay positioned The real move rewards those who waited Appreciate your discipline and calm mindset 👍
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Peter Chung
Peter Chung@PeterChung13·
@ajaycan Thank you Ajay🙏 I will try to be patient and stick with longer term themes and keep enough personal liquidity to help quiet these short term gyrations & noise🌞
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
Easy confusion — two different flows. 1. Treasury buyers (Belgium story) “Belgium” = custodial flows Mostly Euroclear Not Belgium buying But others parking USTs there: – Sovereigns – Central banks – Funds hiding footprint 2. So “proxy buyers” in Treasuries = Custody locations, not real owners 3. Metals is a different game Gold → central banks (visible trend) Silver → fragmented, less transparent 4. About the selloff Short term: liquidity stress Everything gets sold Even gold, silver Long term: nothing changed – Debt rising – Yields unstable – Currency confidence fragile 5. My stance Yes, still bullish Because: Selloffs = liquidity events Not thesis breaks Insight: Treasuries = “who is hiding buying” Metals = “who is quietly accumulating” Different lenses Same underlying stress When liquidity returns Metals usually move first.
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Peter Chung
Peter Chung@PeterChung13·
@ajaycan Sorry but thought your post is buyers o f us treasuries? & my reply was on proxies being labeled under Belgium,…. Sounds like your bullish gold & silver despite their crazy sell ooff?
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
Good question — but don’t assume “US gov buying.” 1. Most buying is indirect Central banks don’t buy silver They buy gold 2. Real proxies in silver: – Bullion banks (JPM, HSBC desks) – Industrial users hedging forward – ETFs accumulating physical – Sovereign-linked funds (quiet, not declared) 3. China is the wildcard State + industrial + solar supply chain Can accumulate through multiple channels Not transparent 4. Why it feels like “proxy buying” Metal is disappearing But no single buyer is visible That = distributed accumulation 5. US angle? If it happens, it won’t be obvious It will be via: – Strategic stockpiles – Defense contractors – Policy incentives, not direct buying Insight: This is not one whale. This is many entities quietly front-running a shortage. When it becomes obvious Price will already be gone.
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Peter Chung
Peter Chung@PeterChung13·
@ajaycan Who are the proxies buying? e.g. ~US government?
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
Your feedback is fair. I’ve been focusing more on depth than readability — but you’re right, format matters. Let me simplify how I present this: 1. Liquidity is being pulled from the system 2. Treasuries supply is heavy (~$377B this week) 3. Yields are rising → absorption stress 4. Add geopolitics (Hormuz risk) → inflation + liquidity squeeze That combination is not normal. It’s not risk-off. It’s system stress. I’ll make future posts tighter and more visual — appreciate you calling it out.
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TattvaDarzin
TattvaDarzin@DrTattvadarzin·
@ajaycan Goodness Ajay my finger is tired scrolling and my eyes are tired trying to read such a spaced out post. Why don't you get AI to condense it visually? I like the sense of your posts but seriously I won't take the format as there are others with similar information but readable.
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
Global markets just erased somewhere between $8 trillion and $15 trillion in the last month. This is not a normal correction. This is a liquidity event. 1. Stocks took the biggest hit Global equities: ~$105T market A 5–10% drawdown = $5T to $10T gone Mag 7 alone lost hundreds of billions each. This is not rotation. This is capital destruction. 2. Commodities added fuel Gold down ~4–5% Silver down ~9% Oil volatile on war headlines That’s another $1T–$2T wiped out. Important: This happened despite geopolitical tension. That tells you something is forcing liquidation. 3. The real story: leverage unwind Margin calls Hedge fund deleveraging Leveraged ETF decay This adds another $2T–$5T equivalent pressure. This is why moves feel violent. Not selling by choice. Selling by force. 4. Liquidity is trying to fight it Fed has already injected over $100B+ this year. Weekly injections are happening quietly. When liquidity rises during falling markets, it is not stimulus. It is stress response. 5. Now connect this to silver While everything is being liquidated: COMEX inventories are tight Shanghai premiums remain elevated Physical demand is not collapsing This is critical. Paper price falling Physical stress rising That divergence does not last. 6. This is the setup First phase: Everything sells off (liquidity crunch) Second phase: Liquidity floods in Third phase: Hard assets reprice violently Silver is sitting between phase 1 and phase 2. 7. The takeaway This is not just a dip. This is a system decompressing under leverage. $8T–$15T has already vanished. The question is not “Will things recover?” The question is “Where will liquidity go next?” Liquidity does not rescue weak balance sheets first. It flows where confidence can rebuild fastest. It chases scarcity Not abundance. Gold Silver Energy Critical commodities When money is printed, it looks for things that cannot be printed. If you’re watching silver closely, you already know the answer.
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
You right directionally, but timing matters. Silver is not the bottleneck yet — price is still too low to force substitution or demand destruction. If anything, higher prices will unlock more supply and recycling before PV gets constrained. The real constraint right now is storage. Without batteries, solar just creates intermittent power. You can’t run a grid or EV ecosystem on sunlight alone. So the sequence is: Energy generation (solar, silver demand) → then storage → then full electrification. Silver becomes critical later, when: – PV scales aggressively – Above-ground silver tightens – Prices rise enough to force industrial trade-offs Until then, batteries and grid infrastructure are the real chokepoints. If anything, a surge in EV + storage demand could pull capital away from PV temporarily — delaying that silver squeeze, not accelerating it. The real question isn’t “will silver limit solar?” It’s: “What breaks first — storage, grid, or metals?”
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Nic Cruz Patane
Nic Cruz Patane@niccruzpatane·
China currently has a manufacturing capacity of approximately 1,500 GW of solar panels. That represents roughly 90% of global solar manufacturing capacity, which is insane… They’re so ahead.
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
This is a US Treasury auction schedule — and it’s actually a liquidity map in disguise. Here’s the simple breakdown: Mar 23 Short-term bills (13W + 26W) → $166B total This is quick cash funding, mostly money market demand. Mar 24 2-Year Note → $69B Front-end rates, very sensitive to Fed expectations. Mar 25 5-Year Note → $70B Mid-curve — where stress usually starts showing. Mar 25 2-Year FRN → $28B Floating rate — demand = fear of rising rates. Mar 26 7-Year Note → $44B This is the “problem child” maturity — often weak demand. Total supply hitting market: ~ $377B in a few days. Why this matters: 1. Liquidity drain Buyers need cash → money gets pulled from stocks, commodities, crypto. 2. Yield pressure If demand is weak → yields rise → everything reprices lower. 3. Stress signal Watch 7-year + 5-year auctions closely If they tail badly → market is losing appetite. 4. Hidden question Who is buying? – Foreign buyers? – US banks? – Fed (indirectly)? – Or nobody? If nobody shows up → yields spike → something breaks. Simple analogy: This is like the government putting 377 billion worth of “tickets” on sale in 4 days. If people rush to buy → system is stable. If people hesitate → price drops (yields rise) → panic spreads. Watch the 5Y and 7Y… that’s where cracks usually appear.”
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Mayank Pratap Singh
Mayank Pratap Singh@Mayank_022·
I coded a Speech-to-Text model from scratch. 𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐥𝐨𝐠 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐦𝐞: blogs.mayankpratapsingh.in/chapters/speec… No APIs. No pre-trained models. Just PyTorch, an A100 GPU, and hours of debugging. This started months ago. I wanted to understand how machines hear. Not surface-level understanding. I wanted to build the whole thing myself. So I built it piece by piece: autoencoders, VAEs, VQ-VAEs, Residual Vector Quantization, and CTC loss. Each one took days to get right. Trained for 3 hours on 13,100 audio clips. Got complete garbage. Changed the tokenizer from BPE to character-level. Rechecked everything. Asked @neural_avb who built STT models before. His answer: these models are tricky to train and need days of compute, not hours. Cut the dataset to 200 clips. After 2 hours, actual words appeared. Overfitted? Absolutely. But watching noise turn into recognizable English was satisfying. I have made a blog about this as well so you can learn about the same and my process - Audio fundamentals and waveform representation - Why attention breaks on raw audio - Convolutional downsampling - Transformer encoder with positional encoding - Vector Quantization, straight-through estimator, and RVQ - CTC loss and greedy decoding - Full training loop with VQ loss warmup - What went wrong and what finally worked Resources: - Blog: blogs.mayankpratapsingh.in/chapters/speec… - Code: github.com/Mayankpratapsi… More Resoures CTC loss distill.pub/2017/ctc/ @neural_avb videos @avb_fj" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@avb_fj SoundStream Paper arxiv.org/abs/2107.03312 LJ speech dataset keithito.com/LJ-Speech-Data… wav2vec paper arxiv.org/abs/2006.11477 RVQ blog drscotthawley.github.io/blog/posts/202… Next up: I've already trained two TTS architectures from scratch. Video post about those coming soon. But first, I'm dropping a visual breakdown of Vision Transformers, covering how they work and how to fine-tune them. Follow me @Mayank_022 you're into audio deep learning. Repost so others can find this
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
If Hormuz gets disrupted, this is not just geopolitics. It’s a system shock. ~20% of global oil flows through that chokepoint. Oil spikes → inflation surges → something breaks → liquidity returns That’s the exact environment gold thrives in. Previous base targets: ~6200–6700 With escalation: 6500–7000 becomes likely Severe disruption: 7200–7800 Full policy response cycle: 8000+ is on the table. Gold doesn’t move on fear. It moves on what policymakers are forced to do next.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: President Trump says the US will "obliterate" Iran's power plants if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
Global bond market size: ≈ **$130 trillion** Recent move: * Yields rising across US, Japan, EU, UK * Even a **1%–2% price drop** in bonds is huge 👉 That translates to: **$1.3T to $2.6T loss (conservative)** But in stress pockets (long duration bonds): 👉 Losses can be **3%–5%** So realistic range: **$2T to $5T value destruction in bonds in one month** Why this matters more than stocks Stocks falling = expected Bonds falling = system stress Because bonds are supposed to be: * “safe” * “collateral” * “liquidity base” When bonds fall: 👉 Collateral value drops 👉 Margin pressure increases 👉 Liquidity tightens further This feeds the entire cascade. Big picture now Stocks: $5T–$10T Commodities: $1T–$2T Bonds: $2T–$5T Leverage impact: $2T–$5T 👉 Total system stress: **$10T to $20T equivalent destruction** This matters more than stocks. When bonds fall: Collateral falls Liquidity tightens Forced selling increases This is how systemic stress spreads. Stocks breaking is noise. Bonds breaking is the signal.
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ajay patel
ajay patel@ajaycan·
@elonmusk The mind is plastic Not neutral It becomes what it practices So the real question is: Are you observing your thoughts Or rehearsing them One frees you The other traps you
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