Alex Kanakis

最近在中國珠海、無錫等地，昨天在湖南常德，都發生了無差別殺人、造成許多傷亡的惡性事件。加上之前深圳、蘇州日本人學校遇襲，以及中國國慶節前在上海發生的連續殺傷等，此類報復社會的事件頻頻發生，被稱為「張獻忠現象」。 張獻忠是明朝末年農民起義軍的領袖。他在面臨被剿滅的命運時，把比自己弱勢的民眾當成了殺戮的對象。「張獻忠化」現在被用來形容，中國社會為殺人而殺人的暴力事件愈來愈多。 中國面臨「張獻忠化」的最重要原因，是習近平的好大喜功，導致中國社會愈發不公開、不透明、不公平，民眾不滿的聲音沒有表達的管道。 習近平對自己的國家治理能力非常自信，認為中國百姓都對共產黨感恩戴德，並宣布了2020年底全國已經「如期完成新時代脫貧攻堅目標」。說中國已經沒有窮人了，共產黨創造了人間奇跡。 地方政府為了向習近平顯示國泰民安，四處圍堵、抓捕去北京上訪的人員。對真正遭遇困境的人來說，「上訪」這條過去唯一可以伸冤的管道消失了，再難得到救濟，於是陷入絕望。 而最令人擔憂的，是隨著中國經濟越來越低迷，習近平已經喪失了控制惡性事件發生的手段。最近，中國政府提出要排查、管理好合稱為「四無五失」的九種人群。 「四無」是指無配偶、無子女、無工作或穩定收入、無房產的人。他們被認為是危險的。「五失」是指投資失敗、生活失意、關係失和、心裡失衡，以及精神異常的人群。但這樣劃定的範圍，已經大到不可能形成真正有效的管理。 老子說，「民不畏死，奈何以死懼之」。當人民生活困苦，生不如死之時，嚴刑峻法也會失去對社會的約束力。如果中國經濟不恢復，惡性報復社會的事件還將不斷發生。 圖：中國網友統計的今年2月以來中國發生的惡性事件，11月已經至少有5起。

@jordanschneider Lets see if Xi does as well...Maybe a few regulatory policies and market pressures to benefit domestic industries on the way?

how can i bet that trump will turn on elon?

And don't ignore Tencent's WeChat. It essentially operates as an extension of the state and censors content that the CCP deems "sensitive." And this happens on an app downloaded in the US and on a US phone/phone number--not from a China-based app with a +86 number. Here are just a few examples

We must dismantle the censorship cartel and restore free speech rights for everyday Americans.

@PeterHamby And Tencent’s WeChat

Trump appointees who say TikTok is a national security threat: - Brendan Carr - Marco Rubio - Matt Gaetz - Mike Waltz - Elise Stefanik

@ianbremmer In the US, Citizens United has made the punishment of elite globalists less effective

globalism has been an abject failure— benefiting a small group of elites at the expense of broader populations across the west. citizens in democracies around the world are punishing its proponents. the united states is not unique.

@SariArhoHavren And the pre-Trump ideological underpinnings for the decoupling were put forth in 2013's "Communiqué on the Current State of the Ideological Sphere."

“But the truth is that the decoupling was triggered by China long before Trump’s first presidency.” “Xi made an important remark leading to the decoupling 12 years ago. It came during the party’s 18th national congress in November 2012, immediately before he was elected as party general secretary. Then-Vice President Xi warned during the congress that the Chinese economy was being “hijacked” by the U.S. and pledged to correct the situation.” 1/

@ZhangTaisu And after all these bold attempts at authoritarian capture in the US fail, we need to prepare a Piazzale Loreto to put to rest this dark chapter of US history

Btw, as someone who studies authoritarian regimes, I should point out the following: even more than democracies, modern authoritarian regimes require technocratic competence to survive, either because their survival depends more on performance-based legitimacy, or because they need to oppress very large portions of the population in a truly thorough and competent manner. Anyone can aspire to be an autocrat, but to do so and politically survive, you need *very* high amounts of managerial, administrative, and legal competence. So, for people who think the U.S. can really turn into an autocracy, well, maybe think a bit more. (That said, “not being able to turn into an autocracy” is hardly the same as “be well-governed.”)

@greg_not_so @ChristopherJM Good one!

@ChristopherJM we hope for aloha but should prepare for Midway

Three days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Putin’s soldiers were razing cities, raping and executing Ukrainians, Gabbard — who was just tapped by Trump to be director of national intelligence — called on Zelensky to “embrace the spirit of aloha.”

@committeeonccp @BBC When the attempted prevention of negative coverage creates negative coverage--very counterproductive narrative control

WATCH: Following a tragic attack in China, @BBC is harassed by a man who angrily ordered them to stop filming. Communist officials often order members to target reporters in effort to prevent negative coverage from reaching the world.

I can't figure out if vaccines work or not. Tough one. I can see why RFK Jr is so concerned. Need Sherlock Holmes on this one.

@karenmychael @MustangMedicX @RpsAgainstTrump Exactly. He got a lot or criticism from progressives and told he's out of touch with the priorities of the Dem party going forward. One could now reasonably argue that he's more in touch than his progressive critics are

“We told you this identity shit was a disaster.” Democratic strategist James Carville unleashed on DC-based Democrats for pushing identity politics

@Jason Peak wokeness implies it’s reached its maximum rate and is now declining. Unfortunately it probably hasn’t yet peaked

The dust is settling and the data is showing the election was decided by the confluence of four factors: 1. Inflation: not unemployment, the stock market or GDP; the cost of a hamburger and fries being 2-3x the price it was four years ago is what matters. 2. Peak Wokeness: as demonstrated by this advertisement, which people are claiming was the most effective of the cycle (and that has $100m+ in ad spend behind it) 3. Young men deciding to vote 4. Podcasts Rank them, debate them… and what is missing?

@ianbremmer I guess Elon either didn’t have a say in the picks or his preferences (if consulted) were dismissed

mike waltz and marco rubio are both serious and credible on foreign policy. us allies around the world feeling more comfortable with both of these announcements.

It's a new late-season race on the UCI calendar: Tour of Zhengzhou...Kidding aside, besides the obvious public safety concerns, I'm guessing they might be nervous about another spontaneous act from (un)civil society. Speaking to a couple of friends in Shanghai this morning (their night), they hadn't even heard about it

What’s with this biking movement in China? What’s wrong with it?

@TicTocTick A Sugarbee apple from my local Whole Foods and Harris Teeter (Kroger) in Chapel Hill

That was a cataclysm. Electoral map wipeout. Senate D practical ceiling is now 52 seats. R's is 62. Time to rebuild the left. We are out of touch with the crisis of meaning/purpose fueling MAGA. We refuse to pick big fights. Our tent is too small. 1/ Some early thoughts:

@RadioFreeTom "The regulation of algorithms, of X or TikTok, through the application of European legal norms is a central task. We cannot place “democratic discourse” in the hands of @elonmusk or Chinese software”

“You can get people to vote away their democracy… as long as you create a false world for them to believe in.” - @HC_Richardson on how fear and disinformation helped shape this election. #TheWeeklyShow #JonStewart #Trump #Economy

lots of Chinese people explain their Trump preference using the idiom about 真小人 & 伪君子. "an honest villain is better than a hypocritical gentleman". ignoring that he also tells endless lies, certain mask-off moments seem to resonate with people. take for example "there are a lot of killers. You think our country's innocent"? this nails it: "Trump’s foreign policy is disturbing because it is uncanny—both grotesque and deeply familiar. Like a funhouse mirror, Trump’s vision of the world reflects back a twisted image of U.S. global politics that is and is not who we are supposed to be".

@SariArhoHavren Given Trump's bromance with Xi's bestie, Putin, he's worried about Trump doing a reverse Nixon and strengthening ties with Russia in order to counterbalance China's rising influence

Xi Jinping’s congratulations on Trump’s victory included a sentence stating that the two countries must “get along with each other in the new era.” Mind you, the new era is something where China and Russia see each other as models, embodiments of “the new era”. Read it as you like, but this doesn’t signal that the orderly elections would have changed Beijing’s perception of the U.S. being in terminal decline.